DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: FedEx St. Jude Championship Cash and GPP Strategy

FEDEX ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP

Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $3.6M
FedEx Cup Points: 2,000 to the winner
Location: Memphis, Tenn.
Course: TPC Southwind
Yardage: 7,288
Par: 70
2024 champion: Hideki Matsuyama

Tournament Preview

For six years, the PGA Tour stuck with a postseason format that was panned by fans, the media, even players -- by pretty much everyone but the PGA Tour itself.

Now, six years too late, they've scrapped it. (Does it count as a mulligan? You decide.)

The Tour announced in late May that the controversial staggered-strokes format for the season-ending TOUR Championship is no more. You know, the one where the points leader heading into East Lake started at 10-under and everyone else in the 30-man field was in immediate catch-up mode, some by as much as 10 strokes.

Now, poor Scottie Scheffler will have to start tied with everyone else. How will he ever win another tournament?

But we're getting ahead of ourselves. The TOUR Championship isn't for two more weeks.

This week, the top 70 in the season-long FedExCup Standings qualified for the first of the three playoff events. The playoff format will continue as it had, with the top 50 in points qualifying for next week's BMW Championship and then the top 30 for East Lake in two weeks. Really, all that's changing is that staggered start and the distribution of the $100 million bonus pool. But don't you worry about the golfers, they'll still get the entire $100 mil.

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The FedEx St. Jude will actually have just 69 golfers in this no-cut field, as Rory McIlroy, second in points behind Scheffler, is sitting this one out. He will not be replaced. McIlroy has sat out big events before, and even said late last year that skipping Memphis was his plan, so it shouldn't be a surprise. And, frankly, with the format the way it is, he's assured of qualifying for the TOUR Championship. Besides, he's never played all that well at TPC Southwind.

As a reminder, the points are quadrupled for the first two playoff events, with 2,000 to the winner. So there could be some movement into the top 50, and last year three guys did just that (Viktor Hovland, Nick Dunlap and Eric Cole, at the expense of Tom Kim, Mackenzie Hughes and Jake Knapp).

The PGA Tour has a long history with FedEx, and an even longer one with the city of Memphis.

There is no bigger sponsor of the Tour than FedEx, which has been the title sponsor for the playoffs all 19 years now. It has been the title sponsor of the Memphis tour stop since 1986, first as a regular tournament, then as a WGC and now for the third year as the first playoff event.

The Tour has been stopping in Memphis since 1958. The tournament was closely associated with the late entertainer Danny Thomas, and it bore his name from 1970 to 1984. (Thomas founded  the St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis in 1962 and his family is still closely associated with it.) Two years later, FedEx came on board. TPC Southwind has been the host course since 1989.

Southwind is a par-70 with narrow fairways that average a mere 25 yards and are bracketed by three inches of Bermuda rough. There are 11 doglegs that curb distance and, to a degree, scoring. There are only two par-5s. Southwind features eight par-4s of 450ish-plus yards and the bermuda greens average a small 4,500 square feet. Hitting from farther back in the fairway than usual -- or from the rough -- into small greens makes getting on the green in regulation a challenge. That doesn't even take into account the 11 water hazards affecting 11 holes. Nowhere is there more danger than at No. 18, a 453-yard dogleg left with water almost the entire way.

The course did undergo some modifications since we last saw it, resulting in a slight increase in distance of about 50 yards. The greens were overhauled and slightly expanded to allow for more hole locations, but just by an average of 200 square feet per hole.

After an easy start to Southwind on Nos. 1 to 4, the course gets harder in a hurry. The hardest hole on the course is often the 485-yard 5th. But last year, the 205-yard 14th and the aforementioned 18th were the hardest, followed by the 505-yard 17th. With a combined 35 double bogeys on those three hardest holes -- a lot in this size field -- there could be some big leaderboard swings down the stretch.

As for the weather, thunderstorms forecast for Tuesday would continue a rainy year that challenged the renovation project. After that, it should be dry with light wind the rest of the week. But it will be stiflingly hot, with highs in the mid-90s every day, and the fitness of the golfers will come into play.

Fun Memphis golf factoids: The first 59 in PGA Tour history was shot in Memphis. Al Geiberger did it at par-72 Cordova Country Club in the second round of the 1977 tournament then known as the Danny Thomas Memphis Classic. Geiberger won the tourney by three strokes ahead of former Memphis winner Gary Player. Also in 1977, get this: Former President Gerald Ford hit an incredible shot during the pro-am ... no, he didn't plunk a spectator in the head as he was wont to do -- he made a hole-in-one! 

Key Stats to Winning at TPC Southwind

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Driving Accuracy
• Ball Striking
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Par 4 Efficiency 450-500 yards

Past Champions

FedEx St. Jude Championship
2024 - Hideki Matsuyama
2023 - Lucas Glover
2022 - Will Zalatoris

WGC-FedEx
2021 - Abraham Ancer
2020 - Justin Thomas
2019 - Brooks Koepka

St. Jude Classic
2018 - Dustin Johnson
2017 - Daniel Berger
2016 - Daniel Berger
2015 - Fabian Gomez

Champion's Profile

Last year's leaderboard -- Matsuyama at 17-under, Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland at 15-under and Scheffler at 14-under -- succinctly illustrates the ball-striking requirements at Southwind. All four of them -- in fact, the top six on the leaderboard -- all finished in the top eight in the field in greens in regulation.

Matsuyama also ranked first in SG: Putting. He normally is a terrible putter, and so are the two winners before him -- Glover and Zalatoris. So what gives? One possibility that we always consider is that smaller greens help the poorer putters. That's why putting is not a key stat this week; not that it's not important, it's just that smaller greens can level the playing field and make who will putt well and who will putt poorly harder to quantify.

The winning score has been between 15-under and 17-under in all three years that the St. Jude has been a playoff event, and those are the only tournaments that we will consider in our picks below.

Two years ago, Glover and Patrick Cantlay went to a playoff at 16-under. The two of them, plus third-place finisher McIlroy, all finished in the top-four in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Glover ranked 12th in SG: Putting.

Three years ago, Zalatoris wasn't especially accurate hitting fairways, but he was No. 1 in SG: Approach and eighth in greens in regulation. He ranked 25th in SG: Putting.

The over/under per golfodds.com was set at 263.5 -- 16.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Scottie Scheffler - $13,000 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +280) 
It was a big suprise to Scheffler at only $13,000. He was more than $14K at The Open, and that was with McIlroy in the field. But it's no surprise that Scheffler graded No. 1 in our model. The one possible trouble spot for him will be getting the ball in the fairway -- two months ago he ranked 30th on Tour and now he's 55th. Scheffler tied for fourth here last year.

Russell Henley - $10,000 (+3000)
Henley has made only 15 starts all year, among the fewest for any full-time tour member (Scheffler has 16). But he's made the most of his time, with a whopping nine top-10s, including his past four events, which included the U.S. Open and The Open. Ranking 14th in SG: Approach, 15th in driving accuracy and 18th in greens in regulation, Henley landed at No. 2 in our model.

$9,000-$9,900

Viktor Hovland - $9,300 (+3500)
There are some big names in the $9,000s, obviously, but they all come with concerns, including Hovland. He has only two top-10s all year, but finishing third at the U.S. Open shows us two things: He can keep the ball in the fairway and despite an off season for him, he still has a high ceiling. Hovland shared runner-up here last year and even did decently with his wedges. He tied for 13th the year before and for 20th in 2022.

$8,000-$8,900

Hideki Matsuyama - $8,800 (+3500)
This course suits Matsuyama. He won last year, while putting out of his mind, and tied for 16th the year before. It has not been a great season for him, but it's started to tip in the right direction of late. Matusyama carries three straight top-20s in Memphis. He ranks seventh in our model and would be higher if he hit more fairways.

Corey Conners - $8,500 (+4000)
Conners withdrew from the U.S. Open with an injured right wrist, then skipped the Travelers before having a so-so return at the Scottish Open. But he tied for 10th at The Open, showing his injury is a thing of the past. Conners, who tied for sixth here two yeas ago, is ranked top-20 in driving accuracy, top-30 in greens in regulation and top-50 in putting, which for him is spectacular.

Ben Griffin - $8,000 (+3500)
Griffin is secure into the TOUR Championship. What he might be playing for most right now is Keegan Bradley's attention. He's among maybe a half-dozen guys in the running for two or three captain's picks. After a mini-slump of two straight missed cuts, Griffin took a week off and returned to tie for 11th at the Wyndham. His Sportsbook price seems accurate to us, but his DFS price is a bargain.

$7,000-$7,900

Daniel Berger - $7,800 (+4500)
Berger had a great first half of the season. Since then, not so much. He hasn't had a top-25 in his past seven starts going back to May. But he and TPC Southwind have gotten along great, with Berger winning back-to-back in 2016-17 when the tournament was the St. Jude Classic. Despite the second-half slump, Berger is ranked 11th in SG: Approach and 16th in driving accuracy. His problems exist closer to the hole, something that could be mitigated this week with continued strong approach play.

J.J. Spaun - $7,700 (+4500)
Spaun has been able to keep it together since winning the U.S. Open, with a top-15 at the Travelers and a top-25 at The Open. He's been an elite iron player all season, and pretty good at everything else with no real deficiency. Spaun tied for 24th last time he was at Southwind two years ago.

$6,000-$6,900

Nick Taylor - $6,900 (+8000)
Taylor has had a solid season with a win and an impressive 11 top-25s. His biggest problem area is distance, something that won't hurt him this week. He's ranked 12th in SG: Approach and top-25 in both driving accuracy and greens in regulation. Taylor has played Southwind the past three years and tied for 24th in 2023.

Nico Echavarria - $6,500 (+12000)
Echavarria played his way into the final pairing last Sunday at the Wyndham, only to implode on the back nine. He fell from second to 19th, and that left him 62nd in points with a daunting task to crack the top 50 after this week. But if he gets all that out of his system, and we think he will, Southwind is a good fit. He ranks 30th in our model -- far from elite but tops among anyone $6,500 or under. Echavarria's two biggest shortcomings -- driving distance and his play around the green -- could be avoided this week. He's ranked eighth on Tour in putting.

On board with Len's recommendations for the playoff opener? See how they stack up alongside other golfers in RotoWire's PGA DFS Lineup Optimizer.