This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
TEXAS CHILDREN'S HOUSTON OPEN
Purse: $9.1M
Winner's Share: $1.638M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Houston
Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
Yardage: 7,435
Par: 70
2022 champion: Tony Finau
Tournament Preview
Is everybody in a good mood? Yes? Cool! Well, then let's have some fun and start off this with a golf riddle: How can a tournament be played last season but not last year?
[Jeopardy! music plays]
Okay, pencils down, time's up.
The Houston Open knows how.
The tournament was held last season (2022-23) but that came way back in November 2022, some 16 months ago. You see, it used to be part of the Fall Swing, but with the latest incarnation of the ever-changing PGA Tour schedule, it was moved to a more favorable spring date for the 2024 season. To do that, they didn't play a 2023 edition, because that would've meant two Houston Opens in about four months. We know the fine folk of Texas love their golf, but nobody would want that.
And certainly not with this field.
Yes, the dynamic duo of world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 4 Wyndham Clark will take their traveling 1-2 roadshow to the Lone Star State, after Scheffler won at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass with Clark finishing as runner-up both times. That's surely a strong selling point for Houston, especially with Scheffler going for three in a row. But they are the only two in the top-10 of the world rankings and there are only two more top-25s. It's actually quite surprising with the Masters two weeks away, which is usually the sweet spot for golfers to play their final major tuneup. But the heavy dose of early-season Signature events apparently has had the unintended consequence of hurting the Houston field. Most of the top guys are either taking an extended break before Augusta or will play next week's Valero Texas Open. Right now, the Valero field isn't looking all that great. (LIV golfers also play a tournament in Miami next week.)
Besides Scheffler and Clark, No. 15 Sahith Theegala and No. 20 Jason Day round out the top 25. There are a few other big names in the 144-man field, notably defending champion Tony Finau (hard to remember his win was so long ago!), Will Zalatoris, Billy Horschel, Si Woo Kim, Nick Dunlap, Cam Davis and Luke List. In all, just 10 in the top-50 are on hand. The tournament prefers you look at this way, as it noted in its field-annoucing press release: "Eight of the top 25 golfers in the FedExCup Standings as of the week of March 18 are set to compete." Fair point. The release also noted that "Joel Dahmen, one of the stars of Netflix's Full Swing is also set to compete." Again, fair point.
Despite the meh field, it's still not a bad week to be Jim Crane. The owner of the Houston Astros sees his baseball team and his golf tournament begin play on the same day. Crane also heads the non-profit Astros Golf Foundation, which came on board six years ago to rescue a tournament in deep trouble.
One of the oldest events in golf, in existence since the 1940s, the Houston Open had just lost its sponsor. It was a big blow to the PGA Tour to part ways with its longest-standing title partner at the time, one that had become synonymous with the tournament over a quarter of a century of sponsorship: the Shell Houston Open.
Now, after a couple of shaky, sponsor-less years during which the tournament lost its coveted spring spot the week before the Masters and was pushed to the fall season, it is still standing, even thriving, thanks almost entirely to Crane and his foundation.
Not only did Crane keep the tournament in the only city it has ever known, he moved it to a muni -- how cool is that? Memorial Park played host to the tournament from the 1940s into the 1960s, and now is back for a fourth straight time. The sponsor thing was still a revolving door, with Hewlett Packard gone after one year in 2021, replaced by Cadence Bank, but only for 2022. Now, Texas Children's Hospital has signed on for five years, meaning the Houston Open is all the way back: It has reclaimed a spot in the spring, albeit not the week before the Masters, and won't have to worry about a title sponsor for some time.
Memorial Park is the latest muni to make its way to big-time golf, or in this case make its way back. Built in 1912 originally as a nine-hole course, it played host to the Houston Open 14 times from 1947 to 1963. Before the 2020 return, it underwent an 18-month, $34 million renovation under the direction of famed course designer Tom Doak, who got a consulting assist from Brooks Koepka, who no longer can put his course knowledge to good use after leaving for LIV.
The course is VERY long for a par-70 -- over 7,400 yards. It's a bit quirky in that there are three par-5s and five par-3s. All the par-5s exceed 575 yards -- the 587-yard third, the 625-yard eighth and the 576-yard 16th. Still, most of the guys on the leaderboard have done the bulk of their scoring on those three holes. Two of the par-3s are more than 215 and five par-4s are at least 490. The hardest hole on the course is usually the 529-yard 14th, and last year the second hardest hole was the almost-as-long 522-yard No. 1.
The fairways are tree-lined but generously wide, upwards of 40 yards in some spots. There are only 21 bunkers (two were added this year greenside at No. 17, which is now 405 yards after being extended back 30 yards). In the redesign, many bunkers were replaced by strategic false fronts and run-offs around the greens. The putting surfaces are large at about 7,000 square feet but now are poa trivialis overseed (same as the past two weeks on Tour), as opposed to bermudagrass in prior years. There's water on four holes. If all that sounds challenging, it is: Carlos Ortiz won at 13-under in 2020 and Jason Kokrak at 10-under in 2021 (two more LIV guys, FWIW). Finau's winning score did jump to 16-under in 2022, but he was four clear of runner-up Tyson Alexander and only three guys reached double digits under par. All three years, the 36-hole cut was over par. We must keep in mind that this is a par-70. Still, Memorial Park ranked in the top-10 of hardest tracks the first two years and just missed at No. 11 in 2022. Only five holes on the entire course played under par last time, and three of them were the par-5s.
One new challenge for us this week is trying to determine how things will play in March vs. November. Every part of the course has been overseeded and that "will provide a much tighter playing surface than the bermudagrass did in 2022," according to the official Golf Course Superintendents' tournament fact sheet. "This will highlight the penal green surrounds, while shorter rough gives opportunity for aggressive approach shots to the green." They got a couple of inches of rain last week, so expect the course to play even longer than in the past.
As for this week's weather, it's forecast to be dry the rest of the week. High temps will climb from the 70s into the 80s on the weekend, and it looks like it will be very windy from Friday through Sunday -- we're talking about 20 mph. Double check before the lock, but that might favor the late-early wave.
Houston Open history: To illustrate the magnitude of this tournament, which dates to 1946, here are some of the champions through the years: Byron Nelson (inaugural 1946), Arnold Palmer (twice), Gary Player, Raymond Floyd, Lee Elder, Curtis Strange (twice), Payne Stewart, David Duval, Fred Couples, Vijay Singh (three times), Phil Mickelson and Anthony Kim(!).
Key Stats to Winning at Memorial Park
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Proximity 200+ yards
• Strokes gained: Putting
• Par-5 Scoring
• Bogey avoidance
Past Champions
2022 - Tony Finau (Memorial Park)
2021 - Jason Kokrak (Memorial Park)
2020 - Carlos Ortiz (Memorial Park)
2019 - Lanto Griffin (Golf Club of Houston)
2018 - Ian Poulter (Golf Club of Houston)
2017 - Russell Henley (Golf Club of Houston)
2016 - Jim Herman (Golf Club of Houston)
2015 - J.B. Holmes (Golf Club of Houston)
2014 - Matt Jones (Golf Club of Houston)
Champion's Profile
We have three years of course history but zero years of course history for March. We can use the November information and guesstimate how that translates to March. Finau had perhaps the best week he's ever had on Tour. In winning by four shots, he ranked 21st in driving distance but also first in fairway accuracy, which is unreal. He ranked second in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, ninth in Approach, 29th in Around-the-Green, second in Tee-to-Green and, get this, second in Putting. What a week! For Finau to finish second in SG: Putting with the rest of his game back then, it's surprising he didn't win by more than four. Oh, he was also first in greens in regulation. If there was one key stat common among the guys atop the leaderboard, it was GIR. What was especially strong about Finau's play was that he shot only 6-under on the par-5s; meaning he also scored on the par-3s and 4s. Ortiz and Kokrak, on the other hand, shot 8-under on the par-5s, with lower winning scores. All three years, putting mattered -- Ortiz and Kokrak also finished top-5 in SG: Putting. Kokrak putted out of his mind, making over 400 feet of putts -- and still got only to 10-under. This is one tough track. The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com is 265.5 -- 14.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Scottie Scheffler - $13,000 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +260)
There's not much to say. This is the first $13,000 price we've seen in years. It's okay to spend up because 1) There's a good chance Scheffler will win and 2) There are more than 100 guys from $6,900 on down and almost 70 guys in the $5,000s alone. Scheffler finished ninth here in 2022 and was runner-up the year before.
Wyndham Clark - $10,900 (+1200)
Clark already won a tournament in 2024 and he might've won two more if not for Scheffler. This could be the one tournament in the past three they've played together that putting counts the most. That might be the edge Clark needs. Heck, you could even pick Scheffler and Clark and have $26,100 left over -- about $6,500 per guy. Clark tied for 16th here in 2022.
Sahith Theegala - $10,300 (+1800)
Theegala has been playing great, with three top-10s in his past four starts, all in tough fields: Phoenix, Bay Hill and Sawgrass. The wider fairways will certainly help him keep the ball in the fairway, one of his weak spots. He is one of the best putters in the field. Theegala tied for 22nd here in 2022.
Tony Finau - $9,900 (+2200)
Finau's putting is a real concern -- he's ranked 144th this season. But he is still so good on approach and approach from 200+ yards, we're willing to pull the trigger in a weak field. Of course, he's also the defending champion and putted great here two years ago, albeit on different grasses. Finau did tie for sixth at Torrey Pines (long course, poa greens) and has three other top-25s this year, including at Riviera (more poa).
Tier 2 Values
Alex Noren - $9,400 (+3500)
Noren is not yet in the Masters field. He's ranked 66th in the OWGR, so he'd need a very high finish here, maybe top 3 or 4, to get into the top-50. Coincidentally or not, he tied for fourth in 2022. He's also been playing well of late, with a top-10 at the Cognizant and a top-20 at THE PLAYERS. Noren will be hindered by being short off the tee, but he's still been a good greens-in-regulation guy and exceptional at avoiding bogeys.
Billy Horschel - $8,300 (+5500)
Horschel is another guy still fighting to get to Augusta. He's been making a late push -- T9 at the Cognizant, T12 at the Valspar -- but likely will run out of time. He's ranked 87th in the world and might need a win or runner-up to crack the top-50. That's a tall task, though this is a decent course fit for him, especially in a weak field. Good GIR guy, good bogey-avoid guy.
Kurt Kitayama - $8,100 (+5000)
Kitayama is good on approach, good from 200+ yards. He's a big hitter who likes to let fly off the tee, and the wider fairways will definitely let him take his rips. For such an aggressive player with driver in hand, Kitayama is among the best in this field at bogey avoidance.
Jake Knapp - $8,000 (+5500)
Knapp has been more than a one-hit wonder with his win at Mexico last month. He had a top-5 beforehand at the Farmers and another one the week after the win at the Cognizant. He's a super long hitter who also has been accurate with his irons and a very good putter. He actually ranks No. 2 overall in our model, which considers all our key stats over a golfer's past 24 rounds.
Tier 3 Values
Mackenzie Hughes - $7,800 (+6000)
Hughes is not known for his length but he had a chance to win the Valspar last week before ending in a tie for third. He's also handled this long track with a tie for 16th in 2022 and a tie for seventh back in 2020. Hughes will have to rely on his putting and short game more than others, but they are good enough for that to happen.
Akshay Bhatia - $7,500 (+6500)
Which Bhatia will show up? The one with four top-20s in eight starts this year or the one with four missed cuts? The delineation hasn't been be completely easy courses vs. hard courses -- he's done well at Torrey Pines and last week at Copperhead. Bhatia is above the Tour average in every area but short game, which definitely will matter this week. Ranked at No. 95 in the world, the 22-year-old would need a win one of the next two weeks to get into the Masters.
Joel Dahmen - $7,100 (+8000)
We were not swayed, however convincing, by the tournament's press release highlighting Dahmen. What actually swayed us were Dahmen's recent play and course history. He has made four of his past five cuts, including a T11 at THE PLAYERS, thanks largely to the hallmark of his game, which is strong approach play. He's played here twice and finished top-10 both times. Yes, his putting and short game are a concern at this course, but finding value in the $7,000s is difficult this week. Dahmen might be the best value, and the DK Sportsbook might agree based on his odds.
Long-Shot Values
Andrew Novak - $6,900 (+11000)
Novak is on a heater. Three straight top-10s were interrupted by a missed cut at THE PLAYERS, but he was right back at it last week with a T17 at the Valspar. He gets very high marks in our model for his approach play, his long approach play, his wedge play and his bogey avoidance. So despite average length off the tee and so-so putting, Novak is a very good value.
Joseph Bramlett - $6,600 (+13000)
Bramlett is in the upper half of this field statistically in every metric but approaches from 200+ plus. And even in that one he's near the middle. Bramlett is a rare combination of a big bomber off the tee who still manages to minimize bogeys (relative to this field). Bramlett missed the second half of last season but now is rounding into form. He has two top-25s in 2024 -- both at tough tracks at Torrey Pines and last week at Copperhead. he finished tied for ninth here two years ago.
Chris Gotterup - $6,100 (+15000)
Gotterup has made only three cuts in 2024. But they all came at hard courses: Torrey Pines, PGA National and Copperhead. He's one of the two or three longest drivers in this field, and he surely will appreciate the wider fairways. Gotterup's approach play needs work, but his putting isn't bad, especially relative to this field.
Dylan Wu - $6,100 (+18000)
Wu had a good stretch early last year, then slid into mediocrity, or worse. Probably worse. But we're back in the early part of the year and Wu is playing well again. He had top-25s at Mexico and THE PLAYERS, then just missed another with a T26 last week at the Valspar. He's not a long hitter, but he's above average in every other key metric in this field.
Erik Barnes - $5,900 (+35000)
Barnes was on a roll before withdrawing from the Valspar after an opening 79. No reason was given. So, this pick does come with at least some uncertainty. He was coming off a runner-up at Puerto Rico and had made four straight cuts before that, notably at Torrey Pines. Barnes is not the best putter, but also far from the worst, hits it pretty straight and is good at avoiding the big number.
Tyson Alexander - $5,300 (+25000)
You don't often see the defending runner-up (is that even a thing?) way down toward the bottom. But it is more than a year later and Alexander is ranked 277th in the world. Plus he's made only three cuts in eight starts this year. But they came in three tough events in the Famers, the WMPO and the Cognizant, where he tied for 16th. Our model places Alexander inside the cut line, strong in every metric except long approach play.
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