DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: TOUR Championship Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

TOUR Championship

Purse: $75M (Complete playoff bonus pool)
Winner's Share: $25M 
Location: Atlanta 
Course: East Lake Golf Club 
Yardage: 7,490
Par: 71
2023 champion: Viktor Hovland

Tournament Preview

East Lake Golf Club has always been considered, to be kind, an underwhelming venue for a professional sport to crown its champion. It's been romanticized because of its connection to Bobby Jones. Sure, that counts for something. But at some point a course has to be graded by what happens, you know, on the course.

Which brings us to noted architect Andrew Green, who arrived on the scene right after Viktor Hovland captured last year's title and spent 10 months on a full-blown restoration. Except "restoration" doesn't quite tell the story. The official Golf Course Superintendents Association of America (GCSAA) tournament fact sheet puts it this way: "The course was completely rebuilt from the ground up."

Green is known for overhauling golf courses and making them far better. Congressional, for one. And, more recently, Oak Hill for last year's PGA Championship, which got rave reviews. If anyone can put lipstick on a pig and make it look good, it's Green.

Tom Bendolow was the original architect in 1904, in combination with Donald Ross in 1913. There were a few iterations by Rees Jones, lastly in 2016. Green's charge was to return to Ross' vision.

Using a previously undiscovered 1949 aerial photograph as guidance, Green -- according to the GCSAA sheet -- worked on "reshaping fairways and green complexes; fairway conversion from Meyer zoysia to Zorro zoysia; greens conversion from Mini-Verde bermuda to TifEagle bermuda; bunker placement in fairways and around greens; stream reclamation between No. 6 and 7; converting No. 14 to a par 5; adding a variety of tees for members."

Okay, that's just swell if you happen to be an agronomist, but let's put it in layman's terms.

The course went from a par-70 at 7.346 yards to 71/7,490. Routing was unchanged but greens were shifted, along with surrounding runoff areas, and are now bigger, at an average of 6,238 square feet, an increase of about 600 square feet per hole. There's more fairway and a lot less rough -- that sounds easier but not necessarily -- four more bunkers (78), more strategically placed bunkers to affect tee shots and water in play on eight holes instead of six. 

There are now seven par-4s of 450+ yards, up from six. What we have liked about the course all along is that accuracy off the tee counts more than in most places. Yes, there is now more fairway and less rough, but the newly placed bunkers may neutralize all that.

The closing stretch was always ho-hum; in fact, the 430-yard 17th (now 445) and 590-yard 18th (now 585) tended to be among the easier holes. Both played under par.

Whether all the changes will make East Lake a more exciting course, well, we should be able to tell how well Green did come Sunday night. Or maybe even Thursday by noon. We shall see.

Not let's move on to everybody's favorite topic: the scoring format. Technically, it's called the "Starting Strokes Format" -- if that sexy description doesn't get golf fans juiced, what would? -- and it's now in its sixth year. No matter what you think of it, it greatly affects lineup construction.

We might as well list every golfer, since there are only 30, where they're positioned, their starting score and their DraftKings price. As you'll see, the prices do not strictly conform to the starting position:

• 10-under: Scottie Scheffler, $12,200
• 8-under: Xander Schauffele, $11,000
• 7-under: Hideki Matsuyama, $10,100
• 6-under: Keegan Bradley, $8,700
• 5-under: Ludvig Aberg, 9,900
• 4-under: Rory McIlroy, $9,600; Patrick Cantlay, $9,400; Collin Morikawa, $9,100; Sam Burns, $8,500; Wyndham Clark, $8,100
• 3-under: Adam Scott, $7,900; Tony Finau, $7,700; Sungjae Im, $7,500; Shane Lowry, $7,300; Sahith Theegala, $7,000
• 2-under: Viktor Hovland, $8,300; Russell Henley, $7,400; Byeong Hun An, $7,200; Akshay Bhatia, $6,900; Robert MacIntyre, $6,600
• 1-under: Tommy Fleetwood, $7,600; Billy Horschel, $7,100; Sepp Straka, $6,700; Taylor Pendrith, $6,500; Matthieu Pavon, $6,000
• Even Par: Justin Thomas, $6,800; Aaron Rai, $6,400; Christiaan Bezuidenhout, $6,300; Chris Kirk, $6,200; Tom Hoge, $6,100

In constructing our lineups in past years, we looked at the five-man tiers, examining guys who will all begin with the same score but at sometimes vastly disparate prices. Try to find value in each tier. Or maybe find a discrepancy from tier to tier. For instance:

• Is McIlroy, a three-time winner at East Lake, worth playing over Matsuyama, worth playing over more expensive guys even though they start higher than him on the leaderboard?
• Is Bradley, way down at $8,700, a better value than Aberg, McIlroy, Cantlay and Morikawa, all of whom cost more and are starting further back? Or do you consider his BMW win more of an outlier?
• Is Hovland worth $900 more than Henley, both starting at the same score (2-under)? Henley beat him by two strokes at the BMW and now they head to a course demanding driver accuracy, a Henley specialty.
• Is Fleetwood worth $1,100 more than Pendrith, one of the most consistent players on Tour the past few months. They both start with the same score.

However you answer these questions, it doesn't necessarily mean it's an either/or situation. You can pick multiple guys in the same tier.

Not that this matters for DFS purposes, but the Official World Golf Ranking website recognizes the golfer with the low 72 score as the winner. In the OWGR universe, co-runner-up Schauffele won the 2020 TOUR Championship and received world-ranking points accordingly. Three years ago, Dustin Johnson won the tournament. But Jon Rahm and Kevin Na tied for the low 72, in effect, were co-winners in the OWGR's eyes. Last year, Hovland and Schauffele tied for the win.

DraftKings scoring will remain exactly the same with birdies, bogeys, pars, etc. Where it can "screw" you (and whenever someone gets screwed, someone else benefits) is with the final-leaderboard bonuses: The winner of the tournament -- the Tour's winner, not the OWGR's -- will get the standard 30-point bonus, then 20 for second, 18, 16, 14 for fifth and so on.

In the first four years of the reconfigured Tour Championship, we twice saw the expected and twice saw the unexpected. The expected is simple: The golfer who started with the lead under this staggered-start format won the tournament and, thus, was the FedEx Cup champion. The unexpected? That was a golfer once rallying from five shots behind at the start and another from a whopping six shots back to be crowned the playoff champion.

Last year, Hovland started in second position two strokes behind Scheffler, and it's fair to say that was in the range of expected outcomes.

The golfer in both instances of the "unexpected" outcomes was no ordinary golfer -- each time it was McIlroy, who in 2022 began the tournament at 4-under-par to Scheffler's 10-under. McIlroy had turned a similar trick in the 2019 edition, opening at 5-under before overtaking Thomas and his 10-under start. In between in 2020 and 2021, Johnson and Cantlay started in the lead and held serve to win the Cup.

So even though the leader on Thursday morning is in optimum position to claim the ginomrous $25 million winner's share of the $75 million playoff bonus pool, we know the winner can come from far back -- or at least that McIlroy can come from far back.

Neither Johnson nor Cantlay shot the lowest score while winning.

As a reminder, the staggered start emerged because the Tour didn't want different winners of the season-ending tournament and the FedEx Cup playoffs, as happened in 2018, when Tiger Woods won the TOUR Championship and Justin Rose was crowned the FedEx Cup champion. Didn't seem so terrible, did it?

Looking at the weather, it'll be hot, with highs in the 90s all week long. There could be rain but winds right now are forecast to be light. 

Key Stats to Winning at East Lake

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Driving Accuracy/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee 
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling 
• Strokes Gained: Putting

Past Champions

2023 - Viktor Hovland
2022 - Rory McIlroy
2021 - Patrick Cantlay
2020 - Dustin Johnson
2019 - Rory McIlroy
2018 - Tiger Woods
2017 - Xander Schauffele
2016 - Rory McIlroy
2015 - Jordan Spieth
2014 - Billy Horschel

Champion's Profile

The lowest score at East Lake (not including the staggered start) tends to be in the low to mid-teens. Last year, however, Hovland and Schauffele creeped up to 19-under (not including the extra strokes). They were seven clear of third-place Clark, who was not even in the teens. So let's consider those two scores as aberrations. Two years ago, McIlroy shot 16-under (minus the added strokes).

Guys who keep the ball in the fairway normally do well, and the course setup previously did a good job in blunting length off the tee. We expect that to continue. A year ago, Hovland was 20th in driving distance but first in fairways hit, and he led the field in greens in regulation, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Tee-to-Green.

Hovland ranked fourth in SG: Putting, Schauffele was third, Clark was ninth and fourth-place McIlroy was second. Big emphasis on the greens, though we won't know how this year will play out. Scrambling may take on added emphasis.

Two years ago, McIlroy led in driving distance at a massive average of 334 yards. There's always an exception to every theory; it's amazing how many times the exception is McIlroy.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

Scottie Scheffler - $12,100 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook with starting strokes: +110) 
Scheffler did not have a good week at the BMW by any measure. He tied for 33rd in the 50-man field. He wasn't great last year at East Lake, finishing at 11-under -- with 10 of those strokes given to him at the start. He still tied for sixth. But he's putting far better now than he was at this time a year ago. Two years ago, Scheffler had only the 13th best score at East Lake but finished second on the leaderboard. Because DraftKings follows the Tour's leaderboard, he got the runner-up bonus points.

Xander Schauffele - $11,100 (+230) 
With apologies to Bobby Jones, Schauffele is Mr. East Lake. He won the TOUR Championship for real in 2017. Since then, he's had the low-72-hole score twice, including last year, when he tied Hovland.

Ludvig Aberg - $9,900 (+2000) 
This will be Aberg's first go-round at East Lake. In a way, he might not be at a disadvantage, with all the veterans also unfamiliar with all the changes. It's easy to envision Aberg blasting the ball off the tee the way McIlroy did two years ago. He's coming off a great week at the BMW, where he shared runner-up.

Rory McIlroy - $9,600 (+1600)  
We've seen McIlroy rally from five and six shots down at the start to win here. He'll start this week six strokes back. His putting is a concern heading into the week. And his recent play has been un-McIlroy-like. Yet the course history here -- three wins -- is too great to overlook. He even finished fourth last year.

Viktor Hovland - $8,300 (+7000)   
Hovland showed two weeks ago how good he can be when he's on. Last week, not so much. But his approach play was still sterling, ranking fourth in the BMW field. He ran into trouble on the greens, ranking 46th out of 50. He had been putting quite well this season, so it might have just been the Castle Pines greens. Scrambling is still Hovland's Kryptonite, but he used terrific approach play last year to largely take it out of the equation.

Russell Henley - $7,400 (+10000)  
At age 35, Henley is at the apex of his career -- he's ranked 14th in the world. He's a short hitter off the tee but one of the most accurate, ranking eighth on Tour. He's also ranked top-40 on Tour in SG: Approach, Around-the-Green and Putting. Henley really hasn't contended for a title this year, but he did finish top-10 at both Opens. He tied for 14th here last year.

Taylor Pendrith - $6,500 (+40000)  
In 11 starts since winning the Byron Nelson in May, Pendrith has finished in the top-25 eight times. Of course, top-25 means nothing this week, but he has three top-10s in that span and tied for 13th last week. As one of the best putters in the field, the Canadian can climb the leaderboard in a hurry.

Aaron Rai - $6,400 (+35000)  
Rai is on the short list of biggest surprises to have made it to East Lake. But his place in the field is completely deserved and he's ranked in the top-25 in the world for a reason. The Englishman is starting from the bottom of the leaderboard at even par. But he's the absolute best on Tour in finding fairways, plus top-10 in SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green and he is putting better than he ever had before.

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