This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $8.4M
Winner's Share: $1.512M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Palm Harbor, Fla.
Course: Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club (Copperhead)
Yardage: 7,340
Par: 71
2023 champion: Taylor Moore
Tournament Preview
For Signature Events, all the heavy lifting has already been done for them -- every big name on the PGA Tour will be there. For the, um, non-Signatures, things are more hit or miss. This week's Valspar Championship at least has some important building blocks to get some eyes on their tournament with the possibility of real drama on Sunday afternoon.
The 156-man field isn't deep, but it does have enough big names at the top to give it a fighting chance in going up against the NCAA tournament. Best buds Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas are perhaps the two biggest draws on the PGA Tour not named Tiger Woods or Rory McIlroy. Spieth, the 2015 Valspar winner, and Thomas will be joined by two of last week's PLAYERS Championship runners-up, Xander Schauffele and Brian Harman, plus two-time Valspar champ Sam Burns. All five were part of the losing U.S. Ryder Cup team last year, and we mention that because Keegan Bradley, whose Cup snub was so heartbreakingly detailed in the recently released second season of the Netflix series "Full Swing," will also be in the field. He's certainly become a more sentimental favorite in the eyes of many golf fans.
Other names of note as the Florida Swing concludes are Tony Finau, Cameron Young, Sungjae Im, Nick Taylor, Min Woo Lee and two players continuing on the comeback trail from injuries, Daniel Berger and Bud Cauley.
So, all in all, not bad for Valspar Paints, though they certainly would like to get their hands on one of those elite fields that we've seen so often early in the 2024 season. Since the Elevated/Designated/Signature format debuted, Valspar has not been included. The title sponsor of this tournament since 2014 has one more year after this one on their agreement with the PGA Tour. With the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship being played in the two preceding weeks, it'll be hard to see this tournament ever get Signatured.
We won't be solving that problem today, so let's move on.
As we've seen throughout the four-event Florida Swing, all the courses have the potential to be brutes, Last year, Copperhead showed its teeth (fangs?) as the seventh-hardest course on Tour in 2022-23, with Taylor Moore winning at a mere 10-under par. Spieth, Thomas, Burns and Taylor all finished in the top-10. After a couple of years in which Burns won both times at 17-under, they grew the rough nearly an inch to 3.75 inches and minimized the width of the intermediate cut around the greens from 72 inches to 21, bringing the rough closer to the greens. That added a huge emphasis on scrambling. Throw in the fact that a cool, wet winter has helped the rough grow thicker this year, and we could be in for another near-single-digit winner.
Copperhead, the only course this tournament has ever known since arriving in 2000, is not your traditional Florida track. The 1971 Larry Packard design is extremely narrow and tree-lined with numerous dog legs and plenty of undulations and is situated on the west coast of the state by the Gulf of Mexico. It's also an oddity for a par-71 in that there are five par-3s and four par-5s. Other than on the par-5s, par is a good score on every hole. In fact, every par-3 and par-4 played over par last year -- which we can't recall happening anywhere before. Long iron play, along with scrambling and putting inside 10 feet, rule the roost here. The greens are bermudagrass with poa overseed and moderate in size, averaging about 5,800 square feet, and will run at a speedy 12 on the Stimpmeter. There are 74 bunkers and water on half the holes.
Not to be outdone by other courses with cute little nicknames for their hard holes, Copperhead features the famed Snake Pit, a three-hole sequence that is one of the toughest closing stretches in golf. It begins with what's usually the hardest hole on the course and what was the ninth-hardest hole on the entire Tour last season, the 475-yard 16th with water on the entire right side. It's followed by the long 215-yard 17th and the 445-yard 18th. They all play over par and, if the golfers aren't careful, way over par. The 200-yard 13th was the second-hardest hole last year, so we see how much harder the back is than the front, especially with par at 35 to the front's 36. Interestingly, the course considers its signature hole to be the 590-yard, double-dog-leg 14th, not one of the Snake Pit trio. The easiest hole is the 560-yard 1st, the shortest of the par-5s. So don't get too excited if your guy gets an opening birdie (but do be disappointed if he doesn't).
As for the weather, we're looking at rain very likely on Friday, which means you should check back closer to the lock to determine whether there's an advantage to the early-late or late-early tee times. There could be more rain Saturday morning. Otherwise, highs should be in the 70s and it will be a bit windy through the week.
Fun Innisbrook factoid: From the 2021 GCSAA sheet, we learned that: "Wildlife on course includes raccoons, bald eagles, coyotes, fox squirrel (unique at Innisbrook), alligators, turtles, snakes." Of course, snakes.
Key Stats to Winning at Copperhead
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation (175-200 yards)
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting/Putting inside 10 feet
• Par-3 Scoring, 200-225 yards
• Bogey Avoidance
Past Champions
2023 – Taylor Moore
2022 – Sam Burns
2021 – Sam Burns
2020 – None
2019 – Paul Casey
2018 – Paul Casey
2017 – Adam Hadwin
2016 - Charl Schwartzel
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – John Senden
Champion's Profile
Moore played the par-5s in a collective 7-under, out of his 10-under. He had only four bogeys and one double all week -- and all of those but one bogey came on the par-3s. That's Copperhead in a nutshell. If ever there was a tournament where shorter hitters can prosper, this is it. Copperhead may technically be long at more than 7,300 yards for a par-71, but there are a bunch of dog legs to stifle distance, not to mention five par-3s. Moore was on the high side in driving distance, ranking 18th, while 32nd in fairways hit. He was second in greens in regulation. As for the strokes-gained stats, Moore was second in Off-the-Tee, fifth in Approach, 40th in Around-the-Green, second in Tee-to-Green and ninth in Putting. In other words, just a steady, well-balanced 72 holes of golf. Moore went 64-for-64 in putts from 7 feet an in. Hence, the focus on putting inside 10 feet in the key stats. Making those putts also helps with bogey avoidance. Runner-up Adam Schenk ranked second in SG: Putting. Treat the two Burns years with their higher scores as aberrations and don't put emphasis on them (though Burns did finish solo sixth last year). We'll be looking at quality long iron players who are happy to play it safe. Casey and Hadwin were Exhibits 1 and 1A. This has been one of the hardest tracks for greens in regulation, which brings scrambling into play. And more often than not, great putting has translated into success at Copperhead, especially from inside 10 feet. The over/under on the winning score at golfodds.com was 269.5, which is 14.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Xander Schauffele - $11,200 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +700)
The question is whether Schauffele can regroup and refocus less than four days after coming oh-so-close to the biggest win of his career but instead had to settle for a share of runner-up at THE PLAYERS. And, also, whether he can actually win. Because as great as he is and has been playing, he hasn't won since July 2022 in Scotland. Schauffele hasn't missed a cut since even before then. He already has five top-10s in 2024 and tied for 12th in his lone Valspar appearance in 2022. Oh, and he also ranks first in our model in bogey avoidance over his past 24 rounds.
Sam Burns - $10,900 (+1200)
The past three years at the Valspar, Burns has gone win-win-sixth. That should be enough, right? But Burns seems like a new golfer in 2024. He hasn't won, but he has four top-10s and hasn't missed cut. It seems consistency is finally becoming a part of his repertoire. Burns ranks 12th in bogey avoidance in our model, something unthinkable not too long ago.
Justin Thomas - $10,400 (+1400)
Thomas has gone T12-MC-T12-MC in his past four starts. He's been more consistent at Innisbrook, going T13-T3-T10 the past three years. You'd think at a track where short putting is so critical, that would be a deal breaker for Thomas. But he's actually in the top one-third in putting inside 10 feet in this field. And his Approach and Around-the-Green numbers are among the best in the field.
Tier 2 Values
Nick Taylor - $9,100 (+3500)
Taylor never had so much as a top-20 here in all his years -- until last year, when he tied for 10th. That's how we have to look at Taylor, who's reinvented himself over the past year or so. He had a good week going at Sawgrass before a weekend fade and he just missed a top-25. His game is so balanced, which is perfect for a course such as Copperhead.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout - $8,800 (+4500)
The price may seem high, but it's fair in this field and the way the South African has been playing so far in 2024. He's coming off a tie for 13th at Sawgrass, and he also posted a top-25 at Riviera and was runner-up to Nick Dunlap at the Amex. Bezuidenhout ranks seventh overall in our model and fifth in bogey avoidance.
Eric Cole - $8,700 (+4500)
Cole has already played 10 times this season, which means he's taken only one week off. He's missed two of his past three cuts, which may or may not be related to all his activity. We are standing by him because his numbers just pop: In our model, he ranks first in the field over his past 24 rounds in putting inside 10 feet and second in both par-3 200-225 yards and approach play from 175-200 yards.
Doug Ghim - $8,400 (+4000)
We've been on Ghim for a few weeks now. After ripping off five straight top-16 results, including last week's T16 at THE PLAYERS, we were pleasantly surprised to see his price wasn't higher. Ghim tied for 27th here a year ago.
Maverick McNealy - $8,100 (+5500)
It may turn out that the shoulder injury that sidelined McNealy for much of last year will be a blessing. He's come back better than he'd ever been in a career that was starting to pile up what-ifs. He's back inside the top-100 in the world after last week's tie for ninth at Sawgrass, his third top-15 in his past four starts. Our model shows McNealy ranks in the top-10 in this field in both putting inside 10 feet and bogey avoidance.
Tier 3 Values
Andrew Putnam - $7,700 (+6000)
Putnam is a very conservative player. He gets the ball in the fairway, he avoids bogeys. For that reason, our model really likes him. (If only our model knew he's played the Valspar three times and missed every cut.) Putnam has made seven of eight cuts in 2024, including a top-10 at another very hard Florida track at Bay Hill.
Taylor Montgomery - $7,500 (+7500)
Montgomery is one of the best putters, and best short putters, in this field. He's ranked third on Tour this season in SG: Putting. He'll have to clean up his fairway accuracy to make the cut, though, heading into his Valspar debut. Montgomery has had a couple of excellent results this season, top-15s at Torrey Pines and last week at Sawgrass.
Sam Ryder - $7,300 (+8000)
We've been on Ryder twice during the Florida Swing when he's been in the $5,000s and finished top-25 both times, including last week. He's not that good of a golfer to keep it going, but this is another course fit for a good ball-striker. He's played the Valspar five times and, while he's missed three cuts, he tied for 19th last year. Ryder ranks second in our model in SG: Approach over his past 24 rounds and is also top-10 in long iron play from 175-200 yards.
Daniel Berger - $7,200 (+8000)
Berger has played five tournaments since his return and, of all the players back from injuries (Will Zalatoris, Gary Woodland, Cauley, McNealy), he's looked the worst. He's missed three cuts. One of them was at the opposite-field Puerto Rico Open. His putting his been horrible. But he's finally at a more manageable price where we can take a bit of a gamble in a largely weak field. It hasn't been all doom for Berger since he's been back; he did tie for 28th at Phoenix. So there's a glimmer, with maybe even some upside.
Long-Shot Values
Webb Simpson - $6,700 (+10000)
Not everyone has been happy that Simpson scooped up sponsor's invites in multiple Signature Events. Understandably so. But there's no outcry over him being in the Valspar, where he's played pretty well throughout the years. He's had a few top-10s, including last year, when his game was already in decline. And Simpson had a pretty good week at Bay Hill, where he tied for 30th in a far tougher field. He's always been a conservative player, which fits quite nicely this week.
Bud Cauley - $6,400 (+15000)
Cauley has played four tournaments since returning from a years-long absence following a serious auto accident. There were two Korn Ferry starts, then two on the PGA Tour, including a made cut at Phoenix and the highly encouraging tie for 21st at PGA National. Which is as good a reason as any to pick someone from the low $6000s.
Greyson Sigg - $6,300 (+13000)
Sigg is conundrum. Our model shows he's the best in the field over his past 24 rounds at long iron player from 175-200 yards and one of the better at the long par-3s. It also shows he's one of the very worst short putters in the whole field. But he's made the cut the past two years, plus he also has some top-20s at birdie-fests this season. And you have to putt to do well there, right?
Michael Kim - $6,000 (+25000)
Kim is a very good short putter. But he also missed four of his past five cuts. Hey, there are no slam dunks down here in long-shot land. Kim made the cut in January at Torrey Pines, another tough track. He tied for 45th at the Valspar a year ago.
Deep Long-Shot Values
Nico Echavarria - $5,700 (+25000)
Until missing the cut at THE PLAYERS, the 29-year-old Tour winner from Colombia had strung together three straight top-25s, including one at PGA National. He gets the ball in the fairway and is a good long iron player. Echavarria is ranked top-50 on Tour in both greens in regulation and SG: Putting. That sounds like a made cut and maybe more.
Luke Donald - $5,200 (+50000)
The short-hitting, solid-putting Donald has played this course well through the years. In fact, he won here in 2012. And he has multiple other top-5s, another top-10 and a tie for 16th as recently as two years ago. The European Ryder Cup captain has played only once on the PGA Tour this season, a missed cut at Phoenix, but he did tie for 20th in Dubai in January in a tournament at which Tommy Fleetwood and McIlroy finished 1-2. Our model puts Donald just outside the cut line.
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