This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
WASTE MANAGEMENT PHOENIX OPEN
Purse: $7.5M
Winner's Share: $1.35M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Scottsdale, Ariz.
Course: TPC Scottsdale
Yardage: 7,261
Par: 71
2020 champion: Webb Simpson
Tournament Preview
From the eerily silent return of golf at Colonial last June to the patron-free quietude of Augusta National, the PGA Tour has forged on almost totally without fans in attendance. And while things have largely gone better than most anyone could have anticipated, things will be severely tested this week, of all weeks. What will it be like at the so-called The Greatest Show on Grass, home of the most raucous four days on the golf calendar? Mind you, there will be some fans at TPC Scottsdale this week, in fact many more than at any other tournament since the pandemic took control of everything. But 5,000 fans a day will be a mere blip in comparison to the hundreds of thousands that annually poured onto the course beginning at dawn on Thursday. What will it be like at the famed par-3 16th hole? What will it be like for the golfers, many of whom thrive on the bonkers atmosphere?
There's no way to know, of course, at least not in advance. But what we do know is that more good golfers will be on hand than most years, continuing a trend of improved fields every week of 2021 so far. Half of the top-10 in the world will be there -- Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and defending champion Webb Simpson -- plus almost half of the top-25 (12) and top-50 (20). And that doesn't include 2019 champion Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth. In all, the winner will get 58 or 60 OWGR points, according to noted OWGR expert @VC606 on Twitter, which would be more than every year in the past decade but one. Some other players of note who are in on sponsor invites are rising star Will Zalatoris, Korn Ferry standout Davis Riley and recent amateur star John Augenstein in his second pro start.
For all those big names, the total field remains an uncluttered 132. That means 24 fewer bottom-dwellers from last week. That should create a somewhat easier path to filling out your lineup, but you better get 6-for-6. More than half the field will probably make the cut (65 and ties). That lends itself to taking some risks on lower-priced guys -- and conversely being able to stack two or three high-priced guys.
While little of the usual atmosphere will be present, TPC Scottsdale is still a fun track. The par-3 16th -- which alone usually houses some 16,000 fans in an amphitheater-like setting -- is part of a four-hole finish that lends itself to big swings atop the leaderboard. The 15th is a reachable par-5, the 17th is a risk/reward drivable/water-filled par-4 and No. 18 is a 442-yarder with more water and church pew bunkers. TPC Scottsdale plays shorter than the official distance, thanks to some 1,500 feet of altitude in the Phoenix area, and has only three par-5s, none of which reaches 560 yards. The track underwent some modifications from original designer Tom Weiskopf after 2014. It now ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of difficulty (it was 18th hardest out of 41 last season). There were almost 1,100 bogeys last year -- only eight courses had more -- and nearly 100 double bogeys or worse. Water hazards on six holes contribute mightily, and when you consider the field is only 132, those sure are a lot bogeys. TPC Scottsdale really is a ball-strikers' track, and some pretty bad putters have won there in recent years. The bermudagrass greens are firm and of average size, a little more than 7,000 square feet. If you want to officially-officially know the grass type of the greens, it is "TifEagle bermudagrass overseeded w/ Poa Trivialis / perennial ryegrass," according to the officially-official greenskeeper sheet.
Weather-wise, it will be sunny all week with no rain and light wind. Temperatures will fight to break 70 the first three days. The biggest weather issue will be the chilly mornings with temps dipping into the low-40s overnight. They have to start very early on Thursday and Friday to complete the rounds, and there could be some frost.
Fun WMPO Factoid I: This will be the 86th edition of a tournament first played way back in 1932, making it one of the oldest events on Tour. As you'll recall, future Masters and U.S. Open champ Ralph Guldahl ran away that year to win by five strokes.
Fun WMPO Factoid II: It was at this tournament two years ago that Johnny Miller signed off for the last time. He left after the third round so as not to overshadow the end of the tournament, and was replaced on NBC by Paul Azinger.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Scottsdale
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Ball striking/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
Past Champions
2020 - Webb Simpson
2019 - Rickie Fowler
2018 - Gary Woodland
2017 - Hideki Matsuyama
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama
2015 - Brooks Koepka
2014 - Kevin Stadler
2013 - Phil Mickelson
2012 - Kyle Stanley
2011 - Mark Wilson
Champion's Profile
The winning score has been remarkably consistent through the years. The past four years, it's been either 17- or 18-under. In the past 13 years, it's fallen between 14- and 18-under every year but one: in 2013, when Mickelson blew the doors off with a tournament-record-tying 28-under (how's that for an outlier?). There have been playoffs four of the past five years, with Simpson nipping snake-bit Tony Finau last time around. Imagine Finau finishing fifth in putting and not ending his winless streak? That's what happened. Bad putters very often putt well here, or well enough. Matsuyama has won twice. Stadler has won. Stanley has won. Among the last 10 winners, only Fowler and Mickelson were top-10 in putting -- not even Simpson, he was 12th. Really, this week will be all about ball striking and greens in regulation. And if the golfers miss the green, then we'll see how well they scramble. A long list of ball strikers has won here. Simpson and Finau were both top-10 in GIR, Woodland was fourth, Matsuyama was ranked first and second in his back-to-back wins and Koepka was fourth.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Jon Rahm - $11,200 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 7-1)
Rahm plays well here, plays well everywhere -- and in fact, plays well almost every time he plays. He tied for seventh in both his 2021 starts, giving him seven top-10s in his past nine events. The former Arizona State star has finished top-10 in three of his five Scottsdale visits, and has never finished worse than 16th.
Xander Schauffele - $11,000 (10-1)
Some eyes might have bulged upon seeing Schauffele as the No. 2 guy on the DK board over Justin Thomas ($10,800), but not these ones. In a near repeat of Rahm's section above, Schauffele has finished top-5 in his two 2021 starts, including a runner-up last week at Torrey Pines, giving him top-5s in five of his past seven tournaments. He finished top-10 here two years ago and has never finished worse than 17th.
Webb Simpson - $10,100 (14-1)
It would surprise no one if Simpson finished ahead of Rahm, Schauffele and Thomas (and Rory McIlroy, $10,600) and went back-to-back. His recent form is not quite as otherworldly as the two golfers above, but he did finish solo fourth last time out at Waialae. Simpson has four other top-10s in Phoenix in addition to his win, including a runner-up in 2017.
Daniel Berger - $9,600 (20-1)
This has been one of Berger's go-to tracks through the years, even before he busted through into the top 15 in the world rankings. He's finished top-11 four times in six visits, and arrives with a great kickoff to 2021 with a pair of top-10s during the Hawaii Swing.
Tier 2 Values
Harris English - $9,300 (30-1)
Don't be discouraged by English stinking up Torrey Pines South with three double bogeys en route to a 79 on Thursday and a plane ticket home on Friday. In fact, it was probably good for him to get a proverbial slap in the face after his recent win. English remains top-10 on Tour in greens in regulation. He's been playing Scottsdale well for years, even before his resurgence, with a pair of top-10s and two other top-16s through the years, including last year.
Will Zalatoris - $9,000 (40-1)
It's come to the point in the PGA Tour season, rather early in fact, where Zalatoris is priced higher than Brooks Koepka ($8,800) and Matthew Wolff ($8,700). And we have no argument with it, either. Zalatoris returned from a super long layoff last week while many other players had already played multiple tournaments and still bested most of them with a tie for seventh. He's ranked top-5 on Tour in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Tee-to-Green, and he's knocking on the door of the top-50 in the world.
Bubba Watson - $8,500 (40-1)
Watson made his 2021 debut last week at a tough place and missed the cut. But he did have a number of strong showings in 2020 and finished the year in good form. As mercurial as Watson can be, it's hard to ignore five Phoenix top-5s through the years, including the past two years. He's ranked top-10 on Tour in three SG categories: Off-the-Tee, Approach and Tee-to-Green, so it's pretty clear why he repeatedly succeeds at TPC Scottsdale.
Russell Henley - $8,200 (60-1)
Henley has alternated missed cuts and made cuts here the past eight years, and if the pattern holds he will play the weekend this time around. That's certainly not a ringing endorsement, but in his past two Phoenix cashes he finished top-16. No, the three reasons to pick him are these: he sits fourth on Tour in SG: Approach, fifth in greens in regulation and ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Tier 3 Values
Henrik Norlander - $7,500 (100-1)
Last week's runner-up result matched Norlander's best finish on Tour. He's been playing pretty well for some time. He was 12th the previous week at The American Express and and had another top-5 at the Sanderson Farms event in the fall. Norlander has the game that can stand up from week to week -- he's ranked top-35 in SG: Off-the-Tee, Approach and Tee-to-Green, and he's 13th in GIR. Norlander has never played this tournament before, something that could unnerve a player -- if there were tens of thousands of fans on the grounds.
Byeong Hun An - $7,300 (80-1)
This has not been a good start to the season for An, who has missed five cuts in nine starts. But he's made his past two, including a top-10 at the Amex, and he surely has been looking forward to this week to right his season. An has finished top-25 all four times he's played this event, including ninth a year ago.
Emiliano Grillo - $7,300 (125-1)
We hate taking Grillo because he can't putt, or chip, but here we are. It's a ball strikers week and there's no denying he's a premium ball striker. Grillo is ranked 31st in SG: Off-the-Tee and an elite seventh in GIR. He missed the Phoenix cut last year but had made the previous four.
Russell Knox - $7,200 (125-1)
It's been all or nothing for Knox so far this season. He's made five cuts and he's missed five. But in the five he's made, he's finished top-25 every time. And he's finished in the top-16 three of the past five years at Phoenix, with the other two naturally being MCs. Knox is ranked fifth on Tour in GIR.
Long-Shot Values
Patton Kizzire - $7,000 (100-1)
Kizzire has made the Phoenix cut in four of his five visits. He's reached the weekend in eight of nine starts this season, including a top-10 at Waialae. He's always been a good putter (ranked 24th in SG: Putting), but this season he's also striking his irons well -- he's 43rd in greens in regulation.
Matt Jones - $6,900 (150-1)
The veteran Aussie has made the cut in eight of his 10 starts this season, including all three in January. He's been doing it with putting and little else -- he's ranked 24th in SG: Putting. Jones returned to Phoenix last year after a two-year absence and missed the cut. Before that, he had made five in a row.
James Hahn - $6,800 (150-1)
Hahn is usually pretty reliable to make the cut, which is why we went with him last week, only to see him fall victim to a 79 in those terrible Friday conditions. He's made the cut five times out of seven in this tournament, with four top-25s, including last year. He's ranked 17th on Tour in GIR.
Matthew NeSmith - $6,500 (200-1)
NeSmith finally made a cut last week at Torrey Pines after opening 2021 at 0-for-2. It wasn't great, a tie for 48th, but he did close with a 3-under 69. He's second on Tour in GIR, 16th in SG: Approach and 39th in SG: Tee-to-Green; if nothing else, he should be making cuts, especially when more than half the field will do so this week. This will be NeSmith's Phoenix debut.
