This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
RBC Canadian Open
Course: St. George's Golf and Country Club (7,014 yards, par 70)
Purse: $8,700,000
Winner: $1,566,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The Canadian Open is back in 2022 after a two-year hiatus due to travel restrictions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Rory McIlroy has been the defending champion for three years dating back to his 2019 triumph by seven strokes after a 9-under, final-round 61. This year the country's national championship will be held at St. George's Golf and Country Club for the fifth time and first since 2010. Canadians may have some advantages this week, but one has not won the Canadian Open since Pat Fletcher in 1954.
St George's is set up this week with the Country Club at Brookline in mind. As such, it will feature thick rough and small greens. That, combined with the relatively close trek from Toronto to Brookline for next week's U.S. Open, is a reason we see a number of top-tier names in this week's field. McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas, and Sam Burns make up half the top 10 in the OWGR, and all will be teeing it up at St. George's. The top Canadian threats to end the drought are Corey Conners, Adam Hadwin, and Mackenzie Hughes. Other notables include Shane Lowry, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, and Tony Finau.
There will be quite a bit of rain early in the week that will soften the golf course, but also make the rough even more penal. We may also see some rain fall during the four tournament rounds. While it will certainly be much cooler than players have experienced in recent weeks, wind should not be a significant factor. St. George's is a trickier track to navigate than Hamilton and Glen Abbey, which both provided a winning score of at least 22-under-par in the last two editions. However, it's unclear just how much the precipitation will affect the scoring this week.
Recent Champions
2021 – None
2020 – None
2019 – Rory McIlroy (Hamilton)
2018 – Dustin Johnson (Glen Abbey)
2017 – Jhonattan Vegas (Glen Abbey)
2016 – Jhonattan Vegas (Glen Abbey)
2015 – Jason Day (Glen Abbey)
2014 – Tim Clark (Royal Montreal)
2013 – Brandt Snedeker (Glen Abbey)
2012 – Scott Piercy (Hamilton)
Key Stats to Victory
- GIR Percentage
- SG: Approach
- Driving Accuracy
- Scrambling
Champion's Profile
The first test at St. George's Golf and Country Club is off the tee. The fairways are defined well by trees, but the landing areas are pretty wide. If you do miss the fairways, however, you will have to contend with thick rough that will make finding the greens very tricky. The stat of the week is going to be greens in regulation, though. These are small greens that look extremely narrow standing in the middle of the fairways. If you do find the putting surface, chances are you are going to have a pretty good look at birdie. The scrambling will be similar to last week at Muirfield Village with a lot of thick rough and challenging bunkers around the greens. The putting surfaces at St. George's will hit about 12.5 on the Stimpmeter, which is quite a bit faster than they were back in 2010 prior to the restoration.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Justin Thomas ($12,000)
His metrics are just so good. Thomas ranks top-50 in every strokes gained statistic, including fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green. The two-time PGA Championship winner is also ninth in proximity to the hole, sixth in scrambling and second in one-putt percentage. Thomas has finished top-20 in 10-of-14 starts this season. He's ready to get back focused to try and win his third career major next week.
Rory McIlroy ($11,900)
When I looked at the forecast and saw that we were going to get a wet golf course, my eyes went straight to McIlroy. The defending RBC Canadian Open winner is on a heater going 2nd-5th-8th-T18 in his last four starts on some very tough venues. McIlroy is second on Tour in both SG: Tee-to-Green and scoring average.
Shane Lowry ($11,400)
It really is just a matter of time before Lowry breaks through for that first PGA Tour win since the 2019 Open Championship. Last week's T32 at the Memorial was his first finish outside the top-25 in a stroke play event since last fall at the Houston Open. Lowry ranks top-15 on the PGA Tour this season in SG: Approach, SG: Putting, proximity to the hole and scrambling.
Corey Conners ($11,200)
On a week where finding fairways and greens in regulation are going to be extremely important, there are not many better in that department than Conners. The Canadian ranks eighth in SG: Off-the-Tee, 27th in driving accuracy, fourth in GIR percentage and 19th in proximity to the hole. He led the field in SG: Approach on route to a T13 at the Memorial, which was his seventh top-26 finish in his last nine starts.
Longer Shots with Value
Brendon Todd ($9,700)
A short course that places a premium on accuracy is exactly the type of place that Todd can contend at. Just look at his solo third a couple weeks ago at Colonial. That was his fourth top-26 finish in his last six starts overall as well. Todd ranks sixth in SG: Putting, 12th in scrambling and fifth in driving accuracy.
Tyler Duncan ($8,800)
Duncan is coming off a strong T15 at Colonial, which was his third top-15 finish in his last six starts. His ball striking has been solid all season, as he ranks 46th in SG: Tee-to-Green, ninth in driving accuracy, 38th in GIR percentage and eighth in proximity to the hole. Duncan's one weakness has been the putter, but he did rank 15th at Colonial in that department -- also on bentgrass greens.
Austin Smotherman ($8,400)
There is a ton of value here getting a great ball-striker down this far. Smotherman ranks 29th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 26th in SG: Approach, 19th in total driving, 44th in GIR percentage and 10th in proximity to the hole this season. The rookie has made his last four cuts, two of which were top-25's. If the putter is decent, Smotherman should have no issues racking up another one at St. George's.
Ryan Armour ($8,300)
Armour is leading the PGA Tour in both driving accuracy and proximity to the hole. Two good stats for success at this course. He is also 30th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 33rd in GIR percentage and 20th in scrambling. Armour has only made nine starts on the PGA Tour in 2022, but four of those were top-30 finishes.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is an incredibly top-heavy field with one of the weakest mid-tiers I can remember. The $9,000-$11,000 is typically the ranges at least 4-5 of my golfers come from, but this week I would say avoid it as much as you can. There are a lot of decent value plays under $9,000 to be able to try to roster 2-3 players above that $11,000 threshold. Lower-priced players to keep an eye on not mentioned above include Martin Laird ($8,600), Peter Malnati ($8,000), Cam Davis ($8,000), and Justin Lower ($7,900).
