This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort (7,596 yards, par 73)
Purse: $15,000,000
Winner: $2,700,000 and 550 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The season technically started back in September in Napa, but Kapalua always really feels like the start of a new season. That will officially be the case at this time next year when the PGA Tour returns to a calendar-based schedule for the 2024 season. But we just got to 2023 so let's preview this year's edition that features an elite field of 39 players set to do battle at one of the most unique courses on the schedule.
While it is called the Tournament of Champions, there will be an exception to the rule going forward. There were 30 different PGA Tour winners over the last year that qualified once again for the Tournament of Champions, with only Rory McIlroy among those who elected to skip this event. In addition, 10 other players were added to the field after qualifying for the TOUR Championship. The decision to add all the Top-30 qualifiers comes in conjunction with the TOC being added as one of the 17 designated "elevated events" that promise participation from top players and increased purses and FedExCup points. The four majors, The Players, the three FedExCup playoff events, the WGC-Match Play, the three player-hosted invitationals, the Waste Management Phoenix Open, RBC Heritage, Wells Fargo Championship, and Travelers Championship make up the rest this year's elevated events. Each player that ranks inside of the top-20 in the Player Impact Program (PIP) at the end of the year are required to play in these 17 elevated events (provided they meet the qualifying criteria) in addition to at least three other "regular PGA Tour tournaments" of their choosing to receiver their PIP bonus money. Players will be able to skip just one of the 17 elevated events and still receive their bonus, which is what Rory McIlory is doing this week.
These changes were in large part a direct response by the PGA Tour and the game's top players to LIV Golf paying absurd amounts of money to some big-name players to jump ship and play in 54-hole invitationals. The offers from this Saudi-backed league to those who chose to stay with the PGA Tour are only going to continue to increase, so hopefully the changes made for this season and going forward will be a success across the board and keep the top talent on a competitive tour.
That brings us to the most recent winner of the Tournament of Champions in Cameron Smith who obviously won't be in Kapalua to defend his title this week after deciding to sign with LIV Golf following his Open Championship victory at St Andrews. Smith did put on an epic performance a year ago to win the TOC going 65-64-64-65 and setting the PGA Tour record for score-to-par in a 72-hole event at 34-under. Smith needed all of it it to beat then World No. 1 Jon Rahm who had to settle for second after he posted a four-day total of 33-under-par. Matt Jones would finish a close third at 32-under following an unreal weekend where he shot 62-61. The top-three were well clear of Patrick Cantlay in fourth.
Kapalua presents opportunities to make a ton of birdies and eagles, making it a very exciting way to kick off the New Year. The course is visually stunning and will be bathing in warm sunshine while much of the rest of the country will be viewing from cold darkness. Players will have to navigate winds that should average 15-to-25 miles per hour throughout the duration of the event. Wide fairways and massive greens should help, but precise shot making will still be required to challenge for victory at the 25th playing of the Tournament of Champions since moving to the Plantation Course at Kapalua.
Recent Champions
2022 - Cameron Smith (-34)
2021 - Harris English (-25)
2020 - Justin Thomas (-14)
2019 - Xander Schauffele (-23)
2018 - Dustin Johnson (-24)
2017 - Justin Thomas (-22)
2016 - Jordan Spieth (-30)
2015 - Patrick Reed (-21)
2014 - Zach Johnson (-19)
2013 - Dustin Johnson (-16)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- Birdie Average
- SG: Putting
Champion's Profile
Due to the massive greens at Kapalua, we can throw greens in regulation on the back burner and focus a lot more on SG: Approach and proximity numbers. Kapalua is long on the card, but players are still going to get quite a few short iron and wedge opportunities to try to stick it close and give themselves the best look for birdie. We'll see some massive drives this week due to the wind on a number of extreme downhill holes. This is a chance for the big hitters to wail away for the most part with very little danger present on the tee shots. The ball-striking will be important, especially if it gets really blustery, but at the end of the day you're going to have to make quite a few putts to contend in a shootout like this. Last year Cameron Smith (-34) led the field in SG: Putting at 6.46 and countryman Matt Jones (-32) was just behind him. Experience around this place has also proved to be key in the past as the Plantation Course is definitely not the most straightforward course on Tour.
FanDuel Value Picks
Justin Thomas ($11,500)
Thomas has arguably the best record of anyone in this field at Kapalua. He has not finished outside the top-five in any of the last four additions and also notched a dominant wire-to-wire victory in 2017. Thomas captured a little offseason momentum with a fifth place showing at the Hero World Challenge and then a win with Jordan Spieth in latest rendition of The Match against Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. Thomas' iron play is as good as anyone and he knows how to attack this course.
Xander Schauffele ($10,900)
Schauffele is the total package and features what I consider to be the most well-rounded game in golf. He has made just three appearances following the Tour Championship with those being a strong showing at the Presidents Cup, T9 at the ZOZO Championship, and solo fourth at the Hero World Challenge. Schauffele has three top-five's in five appearances at Kapalua, including a victory in 2019 and a playoff defeat in 2020.
Tony Finau ($10,700)
Finau doesn't have the same kind of record here as some of the other top players, but he has the type of firepower that can't be dismissed. Over the last six months, FInau finished second at the RBC Canadian Open at 17-under, won the 3M Open at 17-under, won the Rocket Mortgage Classic at 26-under, and won the Houston Open at 16-under. An improved putting stroke has been a big reason as to why Finau is starting to find the winner's circle more consistently.
Sungjae Im ($10,100)
Nobody has made more birdies since coming onto the PGA Tour than Im. It's truly hard to fathom that the 24-year-old is now in his fifth season on the PGA Tour. Im has notched two victories during that time and nobody would be surprised if his doubled that mark in 2023 due to his extremely well-rounded game. Im gained at least 0.3 strokes in every measured category last season and has gone T5 and T8 the last two years at Kapalua.
Longer Shots with Value
Will Zalatoris ($9,600)
Typically I would be a bit concerned playing a guy like Zalatoris coming off a long layoff due to a back injury, but working in his favor is the fact that pretty much everyone in the field is coming off a lengthy competitive layoff. The ceiling is incredibly high for a guy right in the middle of the $9K range. Zalatoris ranked first in SG: Approach, first in SG: Tee-to-Green, and ninth in birdie average en route to his first win in Memphis and 11 total top-15 finishes last season.
Aaron Wise ($9,300)
I am very high on Wise going into 2023 and believe he is fully capable of eventually being a top-10 player in the OWGR. Throughout most of his young career, Wise has been an excellent ball-striker. That was the case once again last season, but the difference was the confidence he was able to build with his new putter. Now through four starts in the fall, Wise ranks 18th in SG: Putting and has scored three top-25 finishes, including a sixth place showing at the CJ Cup.
Keegan Bradley ($8,900)
Bradley had a very strong showing in the fall, scoring a T5 at the Sanderson Farms, a win at ZOZO Championship, and a T21 at the CJ Cup. He is gaining 1.06 strokes per round ball-striking and 1.02 strokes per round putting this season, two very important stats this week. This will be Bradley's fourth go-around Kapalua with his best finish being a fourth place showing in 2013.
Brian Harman ($8,800)
Harman is a player who always baffles me, but I think he is an excellent play this week at Kapalua. The Georgia product had to be pretty disappointed we couldn't keep playing through December because he was just rolling going T15-T23-2nd-T2 in four starts in the fall. The hope is the distance on the card scares some off of a short hitter like Harman and the rest of us can reap the benefits of his elite wedge play and putting. Harman scored a top-3 finish the last time he was in the TOC field in 2018.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
With just 39 players in the field, ownership will be higher than usual across the board. Additionally with no 36-hole cut that allows for extra variability. You could be in good position through three rounds and if two of your players post a 72 on Sunday, they could lose a bunch of spots on the leaderboard and in turn keep you from cashing. Viktor Hovland ($10,500) is a guy who I think will be very popular but I am going to fade. He's coming into the TOC off a win in his most recent start for the third straight year, but he has yet to finish better than 30th at Kapalua. If you're really feeling lucky Mackenzie Hughes ($8,000) and J.T. Poston ($7,700) are two cheap players that are wildly inconsistent but are both capable of going nuclear with the putter, which is what it will take to win at Kapalua.
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