This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Honda Classic
Course: PGA National Champion Course (7,125 yards, par 70)
Purse: $8,400,000
Winner: $1,512,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The future of this South Florida event is certainly in question with Honda ending its 42-year association with the tournament after this season. The PGA Tour really has not done the Honda Classic much favors from a scheduling perspective as of late, and with it sandwiched between two designated events on both ends in 2023, top players area almost forced to skip this event to not burn out. The field strength continues to decline with only two top-20 players in the OWGR in the field with that being Sungjae Im and Billy Horschel. It's crazy considering that so many of the top players in the game live and practice in the West Palm Beach area.
Aside from the scheduling reasons, another reason some of those top local players elect to skip the Honda Classic is that they just don't really like the grind it takes to shoot a good score at PGA National. The Champion Course was designed by George and Tom Fazio and then later redesigned by Jack Nicklaus in 2002. It has hosted the 1983 Ryder Cup, 1987 PGA Championship, and the Senior PGA Championship from 1982-2000. The Champion Course has been the host of the Honda Classic since 2007 and not one player has shot lower than 13-under-par over 72 holes. It consistently is among the hardest courses on the PGA Tour and it takes a mentally strong player to be able to outlast the course and conditions.
Sepp Straka is the defending champion and he will return this week to try to become just the fifth multiple winner of this event. The Austrian was able to outlast 2019 Open Championship winner Shane Lowry by a stroke, who will look to join Padraig Harrington (2005, 2015) and Rory McIlroy (2012) as Irish winners of the Honda Classic this week. Aaron Wise, Alex Noren, and Matt Kuchar make up some of the other notables.
With the Hawaiian Swing and West Coast Swings now in the books, the Florida Swing is set to take center stage. Over the next four weeks the PGA Tour will make stops in Palm Beach Gardens, Orlando, Ponte Vedra Beach, and Palm Harbor. After that it's a Texas Two-Step in Austin and San Antonio before we finally get to the first major of the year at Augusta National. Safe to say, now is the time you want to start heating up.
After a relatively cool West Coast trip, players will be back to sweating out four rounds in temperatures in the mid-80's. We aren't expected to get any significant precipitation this week, but this is Florida so don't hold your breath. We also should be getting relatively mild winds for this time of year. Part of the reason why the scoring average is always so high at PGA National is that the wind gets gusting up to 30 miles per hour, and on this very exposed property, it can really be a problem. It's not looking like players will have to deal with that this week, so maybe that PGA National 72-hole scoring record of 13-under by Camilo Villegas can be had.
Recent Champions
2022 - Sepp Straka (-10)
2021 - Matt Jones (-12)
2020 - Sungjae Im (-6)
2019 - Keith Mitchell (-9)
2018 - Justin Thomas (-8)
2017 - Rickie Fowler (-12)
2016 - Adam Scott (-9)
2015 - Padraig Harrington (-6)
2014 - Russell Henley (-8)
2013 - Michael Thompson (-9)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- SG: Around-the-Green
- Bogey Avoidance
Champion's Profile
There is danger lurking everywhere around PGA National. While we've seen some great putting performances here in years past, I think this week you want to put together a lineup of players who have really been trending in the ball-striking department. This is not a course you want to come to and not have control of your ball. That will lead to a lot of big numbers and likely a short week. In theory more ball-strikers should increase your floor, which will be important at a course like this where there aren't a ton of birdies to be had.
Distance is always a plus, but it is certainly not a prerequisite to success around PGA National, as accuracy should take precedent. The greens are sizable for the most part, but the difficulty of the course should lend itself to a lower GIR percentage average. That will obviously mean more chances for players with quality short games to make up strokes on the field. SG: Around-the-Green, scrambling, and bogey avoidance should all be relevant this week. These bermuda greens offer a much different challenge than the Poa annua of the West Coast Swing. Bermuda typically rolls a lot smoother and it can be a reset of sorts for those players who struggled out West.
Overall, we are looking for players who have flashed strong ball striking in the last few weeks combined with stellar SG: Around-the-Green numbers. A hot putter wouldn't hurt as well, but I'd buy more stock in players who have strong history in Florida.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Sungjae Im ($11,900)
The 2020 Honda Classic winner checks all the boxes this week. He is the clear best player in the field and is gaining at least 0.275 shots per round in every category. Im is 19th in bogey avoidance and can be trusted to navigate all the hazards around PGA National. The 24-year-old has finished top-20 in four of his six starts in 2023, and has already notched eight career top-25 finishes on the four Florida courses.
Matt Kuchar ($11,100)
Kuchar is coming off one of his best ball-striking performances in the last decade at Riviera, gaining 12.5 strokes from tee-to-green, second only to Patrick Cantlay for the week. That is very exciting considering that Kuchar ranks top-20 this season in SG: Around-the-Green, scrambling, and bogey avoidance. Fire up the 44-year-old in Florida given his excellent career history at courses like TPC Sawgrass and Innisbrook.
Min Woo Lee ($11,000)
Lee is making a rare PGA Tour start, but here are his finishes over his last eight finishes worldwide: 3rd, 3rd, T8, T12, T4, 3rd, T2, T13. You could say the fields aren't as strong on the DP World Tour, which is obviously true, but he was hanging right in there on a lot of Sundays with some of the top European players on the PGA Tour like Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood. Lee has gained strokes in ball striking in five of his last six measured tournaments, around the greens in seven of his last eight and with the putter in each of his last eight. He needs to be considered this week.
Jhonattan Vegas ($10,100)
Vegas has been a ball-striking machine the last several months. He has gained strokes both off-the-tee and approaching-the-green in his last seven starts. Vegas leads the PGA Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee this season and is also fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green. The putting has been pretty abysmal, but these Florida bermudagrass greens are far and away his best surfaces. Vegas is 9-for-10 with five top-30 finishes at PGA National.
Longer Shots with Value
Robby Shelton ($9,700)
Shelton is getting his second chance on the PGA Tour and is certainly taking advantage of it. He is 9-for-11 this season and has already racked up six top-25 finishes. Shelton's combination of iron play and short game should have him in a great spot to contend at PGA National. The 27-year-old ranks 25th in SG: Approach and 21st in SG: Around-the-Green this season. Shelton scored an 11th-place result here back in 2020.
Ben Griffin ($9,200)
Despite being top-40 in the FedExCup, Griffin was not able to make it in to either of the designated events the last two weeks. The rookie will be motivated to prove himself and his numbers coming into the week are very enticing. Griffin has gained both off-the-tee and approaching-the-green in five of his last six starts. He also has shown the ability to pop with the putter, gaining at least 3.8 strokes at the AmEx, Sony Open, and Houston.
Byeong Hun An ($9,100)
An has made the cut in all four of his starts thus far in 2023. Now he gets to go to Florida where he has had been pretty strong throughout his time on the PGA Tour, including a pair of top-five finishes in four starts at PGA National. An has added quite a bit of distance over the years and now has the short game to match, ranking fifth in SG: Around-the-Green and seventh in putts per round this season.
Ben Taylor ($8,800)
Taylor has certainly cooled off a bit as of late from a 3rd-T21-T4 stretch, but I still believe in his game. The 30-year-old Englishman still ranks 22nd on the season in SG: Total, which is crazy to think you get could that player in this field way down in the $8K range. The driving, iron play, and scrambling numbers don't pop, but he ranks inside the top-third on Tour in all of them, which is why when you combine it all up he's so high in SG: Total.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
After two of the deepest fields in PGA Tour history, this is certainly one of the most shallow. I think this is a week where you want to have a pretty balanced build, because there's a lot of dart throws in the $8K range, and don't even get me started on the $7K range this week. Fortunately it is a pretty stacked $9K range and I think for FanDuel purposes you'd be well served to have the bulk of your team come from that range. Lee Hodges ($9,800), Hayden Buckley ($9,600), Ryan Palmer ($9,400), and Joseph Bramlett ($9,300) are other names in that range I will certainly be considering.
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