This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
THE PLAYERS Championship
Course: TPC Sawgrass (7,189 yards, par 72)
Purse: $15,000,000
Winner: $2,700,000 and 600 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
It has now been a full year since the world flipped upside down. The 2020 PLAYERS Championship had quite a bit of buzz after some exciting finishes in the prior weeks. Nothing seemed too out of the ordinary in Round 1 when Hideki Matsuyama posted a course-record tying nine-under 63. Then that night after some fellow leagues underwent cancellations due to the emerging coronavirus pandemic, the PGA Tour was forced to follow suit. PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan had to make the tough decision to cancel the remainder of the PGA Tour's flagship event, and then subsequently cancel all tournaments for the next three months while the Tour put in place measures to be able to safely conduct events and prevent the spread of COVID-19. Fast forward a year later and optimism seems to be as high as it's been since the pandemic started. We have seen the return of spectators in recent weeks, and while limited they have certainly been heard and showed what we have been missing over the last several months. This week should be the largest crowd we have seen since the opening round of this event last year, with TPC Sawgrass allowing 20 percent capacity. All the big dogs are in the field this week with the exception of Brooks Koepka who had to withdraw due to right knee injury. Collin Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau will be coming off big wins in their last starts at the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, respectively. Rory McIlroy was the last man to win THE PLAYERS back in 2019, but he has now fallen out of the top-10 in the OWGR for the firs time in three years. Dustin Johnson remains well clear of the rest of the world in the bid for No. 1 and will be searching for his first PLAYERS Championship victory this week. The scariest wedge or 9-iron shot of the season for these golfers will be on the infamous par-3 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass. That island green has been a source of heroics and heartbreak through the 39 years of this course hosting this great event. The weather this week looks beautiful with temperatures in the low-70's and winds that should average between 10-15 miles per hour throughout all four rounds. There is no significant chance for precipitation this week, but it is Florida.
Recent Champions
2020 – None
2019 – Rory McIlroy
2018 – Webb Simpson
2017 – Si Woo Kim
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Rickie Fowler
2014 – Martin Kaymer
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Matt Kuchar
2011 – K.J. Choi
2010 – Tim Clark
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- Scrambling
- SG: Putting
Champion's Profile
THE PLAYERS Championship is annually one of the hardest events to be able to pick out who is going to do well that week. Part of that is the fact that this is the best field in golf and just playing average could very easily leave you in a T55 for even the best in the world. Another reason is Pete Dye's TPC Sawgrass allows for so much volatility. Birdies and eagles can be had, but bogeys, doubles, and others are lurking right there on virtually every hole. TPC Sawgrass is traditionally a ball-strikers course where the first key is finding the fairways. If you look down the list of winners here, you'll notice golfers of all lengths have found success at the Stadium Course. That's because you really can't overpower this course with trouble lurking everywhere for one poorly struck tee shot. If you are able to get it in play off the tee, your next challenge becomes trying to get the ball in the correct quadrant of these bermuda greens. The putting surfaces for the most part are quite large, but there are lots of slopes that can either feed balls toward the hole or leave you with a very challenging two-putt depending on where the pin locations are that day. No matter how well you are hitting the ball, you will still have to have a dialed in short game to hoist the trophy on Sunday afternoon. Everyone is going to have to face some tricky into the grain shots off of tight lies and challenging bunkers shots of different lengths around these greens. Si Woo Kim practically won this event in 2017 alone based on how unbelievable his short game was. The last challenge will be with the flat stick, as these greens will be prepped to run around 13 on the Stimpmeter. Three-putts will be a very common occurrence this week, so those who are dialed in with their speed control will be able to avoid some silly bogeys.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Justin Thomas ($11,500)
If you ask most people, they will tell you that Justin Thomas' weakness is his putter. The stats this season tell a different story, as JT ranks 10th in putts per round, fifth in one-putt percentage, and 20th in three-putt avoidance. On top of that he ranks sixth in SG: Approach, 23rd in SG: Around-the-Green, 14th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and first in birdie average. Thomas has "struggled" to his lofty standards this season, but he only has one finished outside the top-15 in nine starts. The 13-time PGA Tour winner has a T3 here in 2016 and a T11 in 2018.
Xander Schauffele ($11,400)
It's hard to find a player more consistent over the last year or so than Schauffele. While he's been frustrated not to have won in that stretch, he has made the cut in 23 straight starts and his T39 last time out at The Concession was the first time he finished outside the top-25 since mid-June. Schauffele has no weaknesses and has a knack for stepping up in the big events. His worst strokes gained category rank is 37th and he's second in SG: Total. Schauffele finished T2 in his Sawgrass debut in 2018.
Collin Morikawa ($11,300)
If you took anything away from Morikawa's win at The Concession it should be that when he putts well, this 24-year-old is capable of dominant performances. To no surprise, the Cal product led the field that week in SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green, but he was also 10th in SG: Putting and second in putts per GIR. Even though he will be making his debut at TPC Sawgrass, his absolute precision both off the tee and into the greens makes him so attractive. He should also take confidence in the fact that much like The Concession, these greens at TPC Sawgrass are large with a lot of undulations and will be running at a very similar speed.
Patrick Cantlay ($11,100)
Much like Schauffele, Cantlay is so strong all the way through the bag. His worst strokes gained category rank is 43rd and he is third in SG: Total, fifth in birdie average, and ninth in scoring average. Cantlay hasn't finished worse than a T17 in any of his last six starts, a stretch which includes a win, runner-up, and T3. The UCLA product also owns a pair of top-25's in three career starts at TPC Sawgrass.
Longer Shots with Value
Adam Scott ($9,700)
TPC Sawgrass may very well be Scott's best course on Tour. He has made his last eight cuts at THE PLAYERS and owns 10 finishes of T17-or-better. If you think about it, his success really does make a lot of sense considering how good a driver and iron player he has been throughout his whole career. Scott's numbers might be a little down this season, but he has still made every cut in eight starts with only one finish worse than T38.
Corey Conners ($9,200)
I'm sticking with Conners this week after he came through for me with a solo third showing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. He profiles very similar to a Webb Simpson who won by four shots back in 2018, not very long but deadly accurate off the tee and into the greens. Conners ranks top-20 this season in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green, driving accuracy, and GIR percentage. The Canadian was also 13th in SG: Putting at Bay Hill, which features very similar greens to the ones he will face at TPC Sawgrass.
Sam Burns ($9,000)
Burns had a bit of a letdown last week after he dominating for most of the Genesis Open but ultimately settling for third. That shouldn't deter DFS players at all in Burns' first start at THE PLAYERS Championship. Burns has shown great balance through the bag, ranking 21st in SG: Off-the-Tee, 33rd in SG: Approach, and 22nd in SG: Putting. He is also 17th in SG: Total, 11th in birdie average, and 23rd in scoring average. Even in a stacked field, Burns is one of the best values out there this week.
Chris Kirk ($8,800)
Kirk put together another strong week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, notching a T8 finish. It was his fifth top-20 finish in his last seven starts. Kirk has been doing a good job working his way back to being a threat on Tour like he was from 2013-16. The 35-year-old ranks 24th in SG: Around-the-Green, 25th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 28th in SG: Total, and 22nd in scoring average. Kirk is 7-for-9 at TPC Sawgrass with a trio of top-15s.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
An absolutely stacked field allows for plenty of options. As I mentioned before, this event is year in and year out one of the hardest to predict. A lot of golfers have a couple good finishes here, but also just as many head scratching finishes. I think you're best off just riding whoever is hot right now. Look at their last four or five events and if they've been consistently hitting the ball well. Ball-striking should be the biggest key around this dangerous course. I don't see much value in Dustin Johnson at $12,200 this week, especially coming off some average play in his last two starts. Jordan Spieth is another player I would stay away from, as while he has been very solid over his last four starts, the Texan missed four of his last five cuts at TPC Sawgrass. A couple sneaky plays to consider at the bottom of your lineup would be Andrew Putnam ($8,400), Doug Ghim ($8,300), Harold Varner III ($7,900), and James Hahn ($7,700).
