This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
THE PLAYERS Championship
Course: Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass (7,256 yards, par 72)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $3,600,000 and 600 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
It wasn't that long ago where the leading money winner for the season was around $3.6 million. This week that is what the winner of the PGA Tour's flagship event will take home. The $20 million dollar total prize fund is the biggest purse in all of golf and will be increased to $25 million in 2023. Whether or not you think THE PLAYERS Championship is deserving of "Major" status, the larger point is that this 144-man field is the best collection of players we see at any single event, they are playing an iconic course, and winning this championship will bolster your legacy in a big way.
Justin Thomas is hoping to become the first player in tournament history to successfully defend his title. Last year's PLAYERS Championship victory was also his last win to date. Scottie Scheffler was able to outlast a strong field last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational to pick up his second win in his last three starts. There are scenarios in which Scheffler could surge into the No. 1 spot in the OWGR with another victory this week. For now at least, Jon Rahm continues to hold that top spot but has been ice cold with his putter for the majority of 2022. World No. 2 Collin Morikawa is looking for another signature win to go with a pair of major championships, while World No. 3 Viktor Hovland is really looking for his first victory of massive significance. Rory McIlroy is currently the only other player in the top-30 of the OWGR that can call themselves a PLAYERS Champion.
This year will be the 40th anniversary of TPC Sawgrass hosting THE PLAYERS Championship. The closing stretch is arguably the most exciting and best in all of golf. It features the gettable par-5 16th, the infamous par-3 17th with the island green, and maybe the toughest drive in golf at the par-4 18th finishing hole. After an unbelievable record to start 2022 in terms of weather on the PGA Tour, it appears we will be hit directly in the face this week. Significant rain is expected to fall in the first three rounds of the event before clearing on Sunday where temperatures will struggled to reach the mid-50's. Massive wind gusts are projected over the weekend as well, which will be the only thing that may be able to control scoring. A delay at some point seems to be almost inevitable.
Recent Champions
2021 – Justin Thomas (-14)
2020 – None
2019 – Rory McIlroy (-16)
2018 – Webb Simpson (-18)
2017 – Si Woo Kim (-10)
2016 – Jason Day (-15)
2015 – Rickie Fowler (-12)
2014 – Martin Kaymer (-13)
2013 – Tiger Woods (-13)
2012 – Matt Kuchar (-13)
Key Stats to Victory
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Driving Accuracy
- Scrambling
- Par-5 Scoring
Champion's Profile
TPC Sawgrass is definitely a ball striker's course and the move back to March seems to have only enhanced that. The wind is typically higher and the greens a little firmer. The two winners since the move back to March have ranked 59th and 42nd for the week in SG: Putting. With the impeding threat of rain, however, the course should play quite soft making fairways wider and greens much more receptive. The rough has been lengthened from previous additions to be around three inches. Distance at this course is pretty irrelevant, as the longest hitters will be squeezed into taking less than driver off the tees quite regularly at TPC Sawgrass. Driving accuracy should be an important factor and being able to avoid the myriad of different hazards off these tees. Iron and wedge play should tell the story this week. The targets depending on the hole location are not overly large, so being in control of distances will be big to giving yourself a lot of good birdie looks. Thrown in wind gusts reaching up to 40 miles per hour in round three and controlling ball flights can't be overlooked either. If you do miss a green this week, your options are much greater than say a week ago at Bay Hill that featured mostly just heavy rough around the greens. When Si Woo Kim broke through in 2017 he pretty much won the whole thing with his short game alone. This is definitely a course where the best short-game players are licking their chops and those who struggle in that department are concerned. Lastly, you need to play the par-5's well at TPC Sawgrass. They are all easily reachable by pretty much every player in the field, but all can burn you for a bogey or worse just as fast as you think you can put a circle down on the scorecard.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Justin Thomas ($11,900)
The defending champ has never missed a cut in six tries and owns four top-25s at TPC Sawgrass. The last time that he finished worse than a T26 in an event was the Open Championship last July. Thomas is so close to finally getting back in the winners circle and ranks 18th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 10th in SG: Approach, 26th in SG: Around and fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green this season. He also leads the PGA Tour in birdie average, which is always great for DFS purposes.
Scottie Scheffler ($10,700)
This price is a crime against humanity. TPC Sawgrass may not be the perfect fit for Scheffler, but I mean the guy has won two of his last three starts with a T7 sandwiched in between against three of the best fields we have seen all year. He's always been an elite ball striker, but the difference this season has been his improvements both around the greens and on them. Scheffler ranks 36th in SG: Around and 19th in SG: Putting.
Cameron Smith ($10,600)
With the given conditions and scrambling being a big factor to success here, Smith definitely catches my eye. The Aussie ranks 20th in SG: Approach, 23rd in SG: Around, 12th in SG: Putting, and 19th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Smith is also fifth in GIR percentage, second in par-5 scoring average and second in birdie average. He won the Tournament of Champions earlier this season and posted a T17 a year ago at Sawgrass.
Daniel Berger ($10,500)
The Florida native always feels comfortable on bermuda and is coming off a solo fourth two weeks at the Honda Classic. Berger is gaining strokes this season in every category, including ranking third in SG: Approach and fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green. He is also fourth in driving accuracy, 15th in GIR percentage, first in scrambling, first in sand saves and 11th in scoring average. Berger is 5-for-6 with a pair of top-10s in his career at TPC Sawgrass.
Longer Shots with Value
Joaquin Niemann ($9,800)
Even through he put together a dominant wire-to-wire win at the Genesis Invitational a few weeks ago, I still feel like Niemann is a bit of a sneaky play here. His low ball flight in softer but very windy conditions is going to come in handy. Niemann ranks 26th in SG: Approach, 10th in SG: Around and ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green. He is also sixth in putts per GIR and 12th in overall scoring average.
Talor Gooch ($9,100)
Yes Gooch did not have the final round he was looking for at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational, but he still ended up T7 and seems to always play well on difficult courses like TPC Sawgrass. Gooch ranks 14th in SG: Approach, seventh in SG: Around, 24th in GIR percentage and 16th in putts per GIR this season. He scored a T5 last year in this event as well.
Billy Horschel ($8,800)
Horschel looks like a different player this season. He is now 7-for-7 with a worst finish of T36 and is coming off a runner-up last week at Bay Hill. Horschel ranks top-35 in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Putting, driving accuracy, GIR percentage, birdie average and par-5 scoring average, and he figures to be plenty motivated to notch his first win in his home state of Florida. He is 6-for-8 at TPC Sawgrass with four top-30 finishes.
Chris Kirk ($7,800)
You're unlikely to find a better bang for your buck than this for the rest of the season. Kirk is hitting on all cylinders going T14-T7-T5 in his last three starts. He ranks sixth in SG: Around and 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green for the season. Kirk gained nearly 9.5 strokes to the field from tee-to-green a week ago at Bay Hill. If you throw out a WD in 2016, Kirk has missed the cut just once nine starts at TPC Sawgrass and has notched a trio of top-15s.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
There are plenty of other golfers that could have been included on the list above. That is what you are going to get when literally everyone -- well, minus Phil and Bryson -- is teeing it up in the same place. TPC Sawgrass is one of the rare venues where a number of top players have inconsistent records. Xander Schauffele has missed his last two cuts here after a T3 in his first appearance, Dustin Johnson has just one top-10 in 12 career starts, and Jordan Spieth has just one top-40 finish in seven starts. Like the first two legs of the Florida Swing, TPC Sawgrass can be extremely penal, but if you are in control of you swing you can make quite a few birdies. Adam Scott ($9,700) and Sergio Garcia ($9,400) probably have the best two records here. The veterans have combined to go 35-for-40 with two wins, 11 top-10s, and 21 top-25s. Russell Knox ($7,900), K.H. Lee ($7,700), and Martin Laird ($7,500) are some other good value options further down the salary board.
