This article is part of our Golf Barometer series.
All signs pointed toward Tommy Fleetwood securing his first PGA Tour victory as he entered Sunday's final round as the solo leader at PGA National last week, but it was sophomore Sungjae Im who emerged for his maiden victory thanks to flashes of a clutch gene with a pair of birdies in the depths of the Bear Trap down the stretch. A sideways approach into the drink right of the 18th green haunted Fleetwood as he made a disheartening trek up the final fairway, but a quick turnaround will force him to move forward as he'll be one of the betting favorites again this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. We'll take a look at several fantasy trends around the PGA Tour as Bay Hill is primed to host Arnie's event once again.
VALUE RISING
Berger collected his third consecutive top-10 at last week's Honda Classic where he gained over six strokes on approaches, while also ranking T6 in driving accuracy. He's made considerable short-game improvements as he ranks 31st in SG: Putting and 62nd in SG: Around-the-Green this season after finishing on the negative side of these metrics during the 2018-19 campaign. The former FSU Seminole will not be in attendance at the upcoming Arnold Palmer Invitational as he prepares for his next expected start along the Florida Swing at the PLAYERS Championship.
The PGA Tour rookie out of Stanford University has not only made the cut in 11 consecutive starts, but he's also posted
All signs pointed toward Tommy Fleetwood securing his first PGA Tour victory as he entered Sunday's final round as the solo leader at PGA National last week, but it was sophomore Sungjae Im who emerged for his maiden victory thanks to flashes of a clutch gene with a pair of birdies in the depths of the Bear Trap down the stretch. A sideways approach into the drink right of the 18th green haunted Fleetwood as he made a disheartening trek up the final fairway, but a quick turnaround will force him to move forward as he'll be one of the betting favorites again this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. We'll take a look at several fantasy trends around the PGA Tour as Bay Hill is primed to host Arnie's event once again.
VALUE RISING
Berger collected his third consecutive top-10 at last week's Honda Classic where he gained over six strokes on approaches, while also ranking T6 in driving accuracy. He's made considerable short-game improvements as he ranks 31st in SG: Putting and 62nd in SG: Around-the-Green this season after finishing on the negative side of these metrics during the 2018-19 campaign. The former FSU Seminole will not be in attendance at the upcoming Arnold Palmer Invitational as he prepares for his next expected start along the Florida Swing at the PLAYERS Championship.
The PGA Tour rookie out of Stanford University has not only made the cut in 11 consecutive starts, but he's also posted three results of 15th or better since the Farmers Insurance Open in late January. McNealy gained 5.1 strokes on approaches at the Honda Classic where he tied for 11th, while he's risen to 16th on Tour in birdie average for the season. Looking ahead to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, McNealy actually made his debut at Bay Hill while maintaining amateur status back in 2016 when he was still playing collegiate golf, even making the cut here in the process.
Situated just one spot below McNealy in the 2019-20 rookie rankings according to their current FedEx Cup points, NeSmith has gained at least 4.7 strokes from tee to green in three of his last four starts and has finished no worse than T48 in eight consecutive tournaments. Rising to a career-best 201st in the Official World Golf Ranking, NeSmith is 13th in GIR percentage, 39th in driving accuracy, 41st in SG: Approach and 20th in par-3 scoring on Tour. There are improvements for NeSmith to make with his wedge play around the greens, but a pedestrian short game hasn't kept him from becoming a cut-making machine as of late.
VALUE FALLING
Koepka has been atrocious with the flat stick in three measured events on the PGA Tour this season, losing a total of 8.5 strokes putting to go along with lousy finishes of MC-T43-MC during this limited stretch. He carded back-to-back four-over 74s at PGA National to miss the cut at the Honda Classic by five shots, and he's now gone since the TOUR Championship without a single top-15 result worldwide. Bay Hill has not been a profitable location for Koepka, either, so another disappointing performance could very well be on the tap for World No. 3 this week at the API.
Rose is another household name enduring a brief slump with finishes of MC-T56-MC from the Farmers Insurance Open to the Honda Classic. The Englishman lost strokes both tee to green and on his approach shots during all three of those duds, but unlike Koepka, Rose has enjoyed past success at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and he figures to draw attention from a daily fantasy perspective this week despite such alarming recent form. This is concerning for those considering rostering Rose, given he ranks 101st in SG: Off-the-Tee and 96th in SG: Putting among the API field in his last 12 rounds.
Frittelli began his 2019-20 campaign in brilliant fashion with back-to-back top-7s at the Sanderson Farms Championship and Safeway Open, but the 2020 calendar year has not yet gone quite as planned. A T58 at the Honda Classic marked his best finish since the Sentry Tournament of Champions and he's lost a brutal average of 3.5 strokes from tee to green per tournament over his last five measured events. He remains inside of the top-70 in the FedEx Cup standings, but Fritelli ranks just 160th in GIR percentage and 173rd in SG: Off-the-Tee.
INJURY UPDATE
A neck injury forced Burgoon to withdraw from the Honda Classic after just 27 holes, with the issue clearly affecting his play as he played his first nine in six-over-par during Friday's second round. He's listed as an alternate for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but he'll more than likely make his next start at the upcoming PLAYERS Championship as long as the neck injury remains minor in severity.
