Houston Open Preview: Henley Likes Houston

The PGA Tour heads to Texas this week for the Houston Open. It's an event that can only be described as a shell of what it used to be. Sorry, low hanging fruit. Seriously, though, while this event was never on par with other big non-major tournaments, it once drew a halfway decent field. But now with its relegation to the fall season, the big names have mostly given up on this event. 

We still have a few big nam ... nah heck, I can't even do it. The only "big name" in the field this week is Henrik Stenson and it's been a while since he played like a "big name." While the elite golfers are somewhere else, there are still a few who can move the needle, but they are certainly outnumbered by the more obscure golfers this week. In other words, this looks like a spot for someone to break through for their first PGA Tour win. 

We have plenty of track history this week, which should aid us in figuring out who that first-timer might be. However, this event was traditionally held in April and we can't know for certain if it will play the same in October.  I'll still use course history in obvious situations, though.     

This Week: Houston Open – Golf Club of Houston, Houston 

Last Year: This event was not held last year. Ian Poulter topped Beau Hossler the year prior.  

FAVORITES

Henrik Stenson (10-1)

If this were tennis, and Stenson was the only elite player in the field, I'd feel pretty good about his chances, but the fact that the field is weak, doesn't necessarily put Stenson in the winner's circle. Someone off the radar is going to go low this week and Stenson will have to bring his best game to win. Stenson was playing fairly well when last season ended, but we haven't seen him since the end of July and there's no telling what his game looks like now. There's not enough reward with Stenson at 10-1.        

Cameron Champ (25-1)  

Now this is more like it. A bomber who just won a couple weeks ago getting 2.5x value over the favorite? Yes, please. Champ struggled after his initial PGA Tour win last season, but with an entire season under his belt now and the experience of dealing with his first win, he should fare much better the second time around. This will be Champ's first time at this event, but that shouldn't matter that much as he's already proven that he can play well as a first-timer.          

Daniel Berger (25-1)

After the way he's played the last couple seasons, it's a surprise to see Berger as the second-favorite at any event, even in fall, but again, the field is pretty thin this week. Berger does have a pretty good track record here, though, with two top-5s and four top-25s, and he's already posted a pair of top-25s in his first two starts this season. Perhaps he's starting to find his form from a couple years ago.                    

MID-TIER GOLFERS                        

Russell Henley (25-1)

There's good news, bad news and even just OK news for Henley this week. Let's start with the bad — he's yet to crack the top 35 this season in three starts on the PGA Tour. The OK — he's made the cut in all three starts this season. The good — his track record here is lights out. Henley won this event in 2017 and finished in the top 10 in each of his last five starts here. To say he has a feel for this track is an understatement.              

Pat Perez (30-1)

Perez's performance has fallen steadily in each of the last two seasons following his stellar 2017 campaign, but even though the results haven't been there recently, he still has that hot streak in him and he might be in the midst of one now. Perez finished third at the Shriners last week and if this is the start of one of his runs, this is the time to buy. Perez's track record here is hit-and-miss — he's made just four cuts in eight starts — but in three of those four starts, he finished in the top-15.          

Harris English (40-1)

That's right, I'm going back to the well once again. English has played well in his three starts this season, and I expect another solid effort this week. It's all a part of my "return of Harris English" theory that I formulated before the season and I'm sticking with it until he lets me down. As for his track record here, it's not great, but he has made the cut in four of five starts, and as mentioned, we can't be certain the course will play the same as it has in years past.             

LONGSHOTS

Beau Hossler (50-1) 

Hossler hasn't been at the top of his game for a while now, but a return to this event could be what he needs to get his game going. Hossler's best finish on the PGA Tour came at this event in 2018. If he can get that feeling again, perhaps he can start his recovery from what was a bad 2019 season. Hossler has two runner-ups in 2018, but he failed to carry that momentum into last season. He'll need to find that 2018 form again this year if he's to stay inside the top 125. A strong finish here will go a long way to securing his card for next season, and Hossler knows this might be his best chance all season.              

Robby Shelton (60-1)  

Is this the unknown guy who breaks through this week? Well, he's certainly got the unknown part locked down; now to the hard part. Shelton is 27th in the FedEx Cup standings, thanks to four made cuts in four starts. He does have a solo-seventh on his resume as well, but for the most part, his play on the weekends has been lacking. The good news is, he's been giving himself chances on the weekend, and you just need one good weekend to really make a splash.            

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Highly Owned Pick: Russell Henley - Although his play this season leaves a lot to be desired, his track record here, especially when put up against everyone else in the field, is hard to ignore. Henley has been off of his best game for the last two seasons, but a good showing in Houston would put him back on track for another solid season.                  

Moderately Owned Pick: Cameron Champ - With no track record here, I can't imagine Champ will have the highest ownership this week, but considering his form and the length of this course, he should definitely be considered. If Champ takes his game to another level this season, this could prove to be a costly selection as he might have more value down the road. But we don't know which way he'll go yet, so maybe just strike while the iron is hot.          

Lightly Owned Pick: Harris English - English has made writing this preview easy for three of the four weeks this season because he keeps coming through when no one expects it. Looking at his odds for this week, the public has yet to buy into English, but again, that just means more opportunity for those who use him this week.                        

Buyer Beware: Sebastian Munoz - Munoz doesn't have super high odds this week (40-1), but he's close enough to the top to draw some attention. That and he won just three weeks ago. The problem is his game has predictably fallen in the weeks following his win. I expect Munoz to struggle for the remainder of fall and then hopefully he regroups and start well in 2020.                      

Last Week: Kevin Streelman -(MC) $0 Season - $256,931  

This Week: Russell Henley - I was admittedly burned last week by Streelman, who wasn't playing well coming into the week, but had a great track record at the event. Similar scenario this week in that Henley hasn't played his best golf recently, but there are two things working in his favor this week when compared to Streelman. One, his track record here is stronger than Streelman's was at the Shriners, and two, and most important, Henley is not coming off a missed cut.  

FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Cameron Champ ($11,100)/Russell Henley ($10,500)/Stewart Cink ($8,300)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last Week: Kevin Streelman (MC) - Streak - 0

This Week: Russell Henley - I doubled-up on Streelman last week and it burned me in both formats. I feel like the rat going for the electrified cheese here, but I just don't see Henley faltering in this spot. He's made the cut in each of his previous three starts this season and has a great feel for this course.