This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
It's the middle of May and we are getting ready for the second major of the season. What a glorious age we live in. Seriously, I'm already in love with this new schedule. In previous years, we'd still be a month away from the next major, just trying to get through the grind that was the massive gap between the Masters and the U.S. Open. Now, we barely have enough time to absorb the previous major. Well, we actually have plenty of time, but you get the point. By the time the previous major has settled in, it's almost time for the next one – it's great!
This week the PGA Tour heads to New York and the beast that is Bethpage Black. This course is long, and while you'll likely hear contrarians mention accuracy, don't be fooled – if you aren't long, you aren't winning this week. Now, will these bombers need to be accurate as well? Sure, but every bomber has a chance; I can't say the same about the shorties off the tee.
This Week: The PGA Championship – Bethpage Black, Bethpage, N.Y.
Last Year: Brooks Koepka shot a final-round 66 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Tiger Woods.
FAVORITES
Dustin Johnson (10-1)
He's only won one major, yet time after time, DJ is always listed among the favorites. It's hard to ignore the talent, and when you put these guys on a neutral course – where guys don't have years of
It's the middle of May and we are getting ready for the second major of the season. What a glorious age we live in. Seriously, I'm already in love with this new schedule. In previous years, we'd still be a month away from the next major, just trying to get through the grind that was the massive gap between the Masters and the U.S. Open. Now, we barely have enough time to absorb the previous major. Well, we actually have plenty of time, but you get the point. By the time the previous major has settled in, it's almost time for the next one – it's great!
This week the PGA Tour heads to New York and the beast that is Bethpage Black. This course is long, and while you'll likely hear contrarians mention accuracy, don't be fooled – if you aren't long, you aren't winning this week. Now, will these bombers need to be accurate as well? Sure, but every bomber has a chance; I can't say the same about the shorties off the tee.
This Week: The PGA Championship – Bethpage Black, Bethpage, N.Y.
Last Year: Brooks Koepka shot a final-round 66 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Tiger Woods.
FAVORITES
Dustin Johnson (10-1)
He's only won one major, yet time after time, DJ is always listed among the favorites. It's hard to ignore the talent, and when you put these guys on a neutral course – where guys don't have years of success under their belt – then DJ looks like a good pick. Length is a huge factor this week and DJ is in an elite group of long hitters off the tee. The other factor is the space between the ears, which is really the unknown with DJ. He's met the challenge a few times during a major, but only once has it resulted in a win. It's tough to call him the favorite this week with only one major win on his resume.
Brooks Koepka (11-1)
When the odds are this close, Koepka could be considered a co-favorite. The only thing Koepka has going against him this week is that everything is lined up perfectly for another major win. It sounds counterintuitive, but things rarely play out as designed in this game. That said, I'm pushing my chips in on Koepka this week. He has length, he's had a lot of success on PGA Championship layouts and he has a mental edge on everyone in the field, with the possible exception of the guy who beat him a month ago.
Rory McIlroy (11-1)
Much like Johnson, McIlroy is always going to be among the favorites at the majors because of his talent. Unlike Johnson, McIlroy has a much better resume at the majors – he just hasn't had a lot of success the last four years. McIlroy's most recent major win came at the 2014 PGA Championship. At the time, it looked like the sky was the limit, and while he's picked up several wins since then, he hasn't been much of a factor at the majors. But his game is in better shape now than at any point over the last four years, which means he should be a factor.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Tiger Woods (11-1)
Heading into the Masters, we knew that Tiger at least had a chance to win because of his track record at Augusta. Fast forward four weeks and now that we know he's capable of winning a major, he's back in familiar territory as a favorite. Tiger has the length to succeed and has played well on this course, so in that sense, he might have an edge on most of the field. But the question is whether he get back to where he needs to be mentally, just a month after such an emotional win. It seems like taking a month off from the PGA Tour was the right move from a mental stand point, but what will that time off do to his game? There's too much talent in the field to get off to a poor start and think you can catch up. Tiger's had a few weeks to focus solely on this event and should be ready out of the gate this week.
Justin Rose (20-1)
The only reason that gives me pause on Koepka is that everything looks too good this week. It's also the same theory behind this pick, as everyone seems to be forgetting about Rose this week. Is anyone talking about Rose this week? Many, including myself, were all over Rose prior to the Masters, and that was a complete failure. It's that failure, though, that will drive him this week. Rose is an elite golfer and has proven that the pressure of a major is not too much to handle. He has the length and has the mental side covered. Now, is his game in good enough shape to win this week?
Xander Schauffele (25-1)
I'm a little worried that Schauffele seems to be a popular pick this week, but I'll stick with him anyway. The reason? Schauffele seems to thrive on the big stage, and although he's yet to win a major, he's been in the mix a few times in his short career already. Schauffele was runner-up at the Masters a month ago and also finished runner-up at the Open Championship last year.
LONGSHOTS
Patrick Cantlay (40-1)
Cantlay doesn't have the major resume of others on this list, but all you can ask for with a longshot is, if everything goes right, he has a chance to win. Cantlay has all the tools, he just lacks majors experience. He managed a top-10 at the Masters last month, and his game overall was trending in the right direction prior to the Zurich Classic where he and Patrick Reed missed the cut, but you can hardly blame that result on Cantlay.
Lucas Glover (125-1)
For a longshot, Glover sure has a lot going for him. Only two golfers in the field have won a major on this course, and the other guy won a major last month. Glover's 2009 U.S. Open victory on this course wouldn't be enough by itself to get him on this list, though. Glover is in the midst of a career resurgence this season and a solid showing this week would fit right in with what he's already accomplished this year.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Brooks Koepka - If you are looking to gain ground in your OAD pool this week, then Koepka is not your guy because he's going to be a very popular selection. But he's such a good pick this week that you might have to take him to keep up. I've waited for the perfect spot for Koepka all year, and this looks like the spot.
Moderately Owned Pick: Xander Schauffele - Most of the favorites this week have already been used in most OAD leagues and others, such as Tiger and DJ, are being held for Pebble, which leaves the door open for Schauffele to become a popular pick this week. Schauffele is getting a lot of attention as a guy just outside the elite pack who could win this week. I can't argue with that as he has no fear of the big stage.
Lightly Owned Pick: Lucas Glover - If this weren't a major, there would be plenty of OAD players on Glover, but people tend to stick with the chalk at majors, which means Glover is the guy who can make up some ground for you. Will Glover win this week? Probably not, but I would be surprised if he weren't in the mix at some point on the weekend.
Buyer beware: Francesco Molinari - All things being equal, it's generally not wise to question Molinari, but all things are not equal as Molinari's length, or lack thereof, off the tee should finally going to catch up with him. Not only is the course long, but it's going to be soft as well as rain has already fallen this week and will continue to fall prior to the weekend, which means drives will be shorter and roll less. That latter is also a huge advantage to the bombers who now have a larger landing area. Anyway, the deck is stacked against Molinari. If you haven't used him yet, you are better off saving him for the Open Championship.
Last week: Keith Mitchell (T59) - $17,301; Season - $4,387,578
This week: Brooks Koepka - I've had Koepka pegged for this spot since the beginning of the season, and although I'm in a position where I need to make up ground in my OAD pools, I'm still going with this pick because I believe he will win this week.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Brooks Koepka ($11,800)/Patrick Cantlay ($10,100)/Lucas Glover ($9,100)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last Week: Matt Jones - (T5); Streak - 1
This Week: Brooks Koepka - I generally like hedging my bets, but you are better off doubling-up your OAD and survivor picks during majors. With the exception of Augusta, there is little course history to use at majors, which means you are better off just picking the guy you think is going to win, even in this format ... if you still have him available. If that doesn't make sense, look at my survivor pick from last week. I didn't expect Matt Jones to win, but I felt good about him making the cut because of his course history. Generally during majors, you don't have that option.
