This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The PGA Tour heads to Las Vegas this week as even more big names come out of hibernation to take part in the fall season. Most notably, Brooks Koepka will tee it up for the first time since his "Player of the Year" snub last month. Will Koepka stick to his usual routine and play when he wants to play, or will he come out with a "scorched Earth" policy and destroy everything in sight?
I'm leaning toward the latter, but I do not expect Koepka to take his revenge until 2020. After all, this is still the fall season and try as they might, it's still hard to get up for this time of year for many players. We have a lot of course history in play this week as the TPC Summerlin has been the home course since 1992. Many golfers in the field have played a couple events already this fall as well, which means we have recent history to use, so this should be easy, right?
This week: Shriners Hospitals for Children Open – TPC Summerlin, Las Vegas
Last Year: Bryson DeChambeau shot a final-round 66 on his way to a one-shot victory over Patrick Cantlay.
FAVORITES
Brooks Koepka (10-1)
If he's in the field, he's the favorite. That's how it's going to be for a while, unless he shows a complete lack of interest in the non-majors again this season. Fittingly, Koepka's track record here is all or nothing. He's missed two
The PGA Tour heads to Las Vegas this week as even more big names come out of hibernation to take part in the fall season. Most notably, Brooks Koepka will tee it up for the first time since his "Player of the Year" snub last month. Will Koepka stick to his usual routine and play when he wants to play, or will he come out with a "scorched Earth" policy and destroy everything in sight?
I'm leaning toward the latter, but I do not expect Koepka to take his revenge until 2020. After all, this is still the fall season and try as they might, it's still hard to get up for this time of year for many players. We have a lot of course history in play this week as the TPC Summerlin has been the home course since 1992. Many golfers in the field have played a couple events already this fall as well, which means we have recent history to use, so this should be easy, right?
This week: Shriners Hospitals for Children Open – TPC Summerlin, Las Vegas
Last Year: Bryson DeChambeau shot a final-round 66 on his way to a one-shot victory over Patrick Cantlay.
FAVORITES
Brooks Koepka (10-1)
If he's in the field, he's the favorite. That's how it's going to be for a while, unless he shows a complete lack of interest in the non-majors again this season. Fittingly, Koepka's track record here is all or nothing. He's missed two cuts in four starts and finished in the top-5 in his other two starts. You really have no idea what you are going to get outside of the majors with Koepka, which makes him a questionable favorite this week.
Patrick Cantlay (12-1)
Cantlay got off to an inauspicious beginning this last week at the Safeway Open as he posted a T40 to start his season. Considering his track record at this event though, he was probably just using the Safeway Open as a tune-up for this week. Cantlay won this event two years ago and finished runner-up last year. It's safe to say that he is very comfortable on this track. Cantlay will undoubtedly put more focus on the majors this season, but he'll continue to play well outside of the majors as well.
Bryson DeChambeau (16-1)
It was around this time last year that we started to wonder just how high DeChambeau's ceiling was. He was coming off a great season and started the new season with yet another win at this event. The rest of the season was a bit of a letdown and the slow play issue reared its head, but it looks like he may have reconciled that issue, at least internally, and once again he's ready to focus on winning. Outside of his win last year at this event, DeChambeau has a top-10 and a T36 in his other two starts here.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Webb Simpson (20-1)
This will be Simpson's first start this season, and while there's no way to tell what his current form is, we do know that he was on fire during the second half of the 2018-19 season. In addition, Simpson has a pretty strong track record at this event, with a win in 2014 and two additional top-5s in eight starts here.
Tony Finau (20-1)
Like Simpson, this will be Finau's first start of this season and also like Simpson, Finau closed out last season in style. Finau did not post great numbers last season and has still yet to pick up a win against a regular PGA Tour field, but he obviously has a lot of game and that was on full display during the FedEx playoffs last season as he closed with a T4 and a T7 in the final two events.
Collin Morikawa (30-1)
It's not uncommon for a golfer to carry momentum from one season into another, especially when the seasons are separated by only a couple weeks. Morikawa had a great start to his career last season, posting a win in just his fourth start on the PGA Tour. He trailed off a bit during the FedEx playoffs, but he appears to be back in top form as he posted a T10 in his first start of the new season last week.
LONGSHOTS
Scottie Scheffler (50-1)
Scheffler got off to a strong start this season with a T7 at the Greenbrier and followed with a T16 the next week at the Sanderson Farms Championship. This will be his first start at this event, which means he'll be at a bit of a disadvantage early, but he's got the game to go low anywhere.
Kevin Streelman (80-1)
Streelman is likely years removed from his best golf, but this time of the year, strange things can happen. Streelman has been hit or miss early in this season, missing two cuts and finishing T4 in his other start, but it's good to see that his upside is still there. His track record here is hit or miss as well, but his "misses" are all just bad weekend showings as he's made the cut in every start here.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Patrick Cantlay - Cantlay would be one heck of a big gun to burn this early in the season, but this looks like a really good spot to deploy him. He has the track record and his form looks to be decent, he could easily win this week and make it two out of three at this event.
Moderately Owned Pick: Bryson DeChambeau - DeChambeau is also a pretty big name to be using this early in the season, but I go back to the odds. Unless he catches fire in 2020, he likely won't be better than 16-1 in many spots. And although there are some big names in the field this week, the depth is nowhere near what it will be once the season gets going in 2020.
Lightly Owned Pick: Kevin Streelman - Streelman is a perfect 9-for-9 in cuts made at this event, which means you are likely cashing a check with this pick. Where his upside is, depends on if everything clicks. If you are weary of using big names during the fall, then Streelman is your guy this week as there likely won't be a better spot for him in 2020.
Buyer Beware: Brooks Koepka - Koepka is the best golfer in the world and is capable of beating any field in any location, but he is human and it's nearly impossible to get up for every start. Will this be one of the starts he gets up for? Will he have his best game? There are too many questions to justify a OAD pick in this spot. In fact, using Koepka outside of a major is just plain ridiculous at this point.
Last Week: Sungjae Im - (T49) $17,006; Season - $256,931
This Week: Kevin Streelman - I can't argue with anyone that wants to use Cantlay this week, but my irrational side is steering me away from that pick. You know, the side that says, "the pick looks too good." It doesn't make sense, but I'm also trying to avoid using big names this fall and Cantlay is certainly a big name, who will also have plenty of value down the road.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Patrick Cantlay ($11,800)/Collin Morikawa ($10,900)/Denny McCarthy ($8,900)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last Week: Chez Reavie (T33) - Streak - 3
This Week: Kevin Streelman - It's always a little scary taking a guy off a missed cut, but Streelman has a feel for this course and I can't imagine his game being so far off that he misses the cut here. Once inside the cut, anything goes, but as mentioned earlier, I'm expecting a solid effort through the weekend this year.
