The American Express: Im All In

The PGA Tour heads to the mainland this week, but unfortunately, few big names will  take part in what was once the Bob Hope Classic. This event has been known for two things — 90 holes and abundant birdies. While they no longer play 90 holes, it's still a birdie fest, and those unaccustomed to going low, need not apply this week. There are three courses in play this week, but fortunately, they are all familiar to the golfers in the field, which means course history can be considered. With so few big names in the field, going off the beaten path might be the smartest course.         

This Week: The American Express – PGA West TPC Stadium, La Quinta, Calif.

Last Year: Adam Long shot a final-round 65 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Adam Long.  

FAVORITES

Rickie Fowler (11-1)

Right off the bat, it's easy to see that this is a different week. No top-tier golfers in the field and nobody in single-digits odds. The biggest issue with Fowler being the favorite is he has almost no track record here. He's only played this event twice and hasn't played here since 2014. He's the biggest name in the field, which is why he's atop the odds list, but he has no value at this price.  

Sungjae Im (16-1)  

Im is quickly morphing from the guy who plays all the time, to the guy who plays well all the time. Im has just one start here, but he played well in that start, finishing with a T12 last year. His form is OK heading into this week as he posted a top-25 in his first start of the year last week at the Sony.

Paul Casey (20-1)

This really is a different week. Neither Fowler, Im, nor Casey has posted a top-10 at this event and yet they are atop the odds list. It's not just that lack of firepower in the field, though, it's the nature of this event that lends itself to a surprise winner almost every year. Like the other favorites, Casey doesn't hold much value at this price.                      

MID-TIER GOLFERS                         

Byeong-Hun An (25-1)

Without any traditionally solid picks in the field this week, why not look at a first-timer? An might not have history here, but when we last saw him his form was outstanding. An has no trouble going low, as he ranks 32nd on the PGA Tour in birdie average. An is still looking for his first PGA Tour win and this might be the spot.                

Francesco Molinari (33-1)

Finally, someone with a solid track record at this event. Molinari has played here three times and posted a top-12 in two of those starts. OK, that hardly qualifies as solid most weeks, but again, this is a different week. Molinari might be the most trustworthy option this week even though he's never finished in the top 10 here.                

Matthew Wolff (33-1)

In a perfect week to go off script, the first-timer Wolff could be considered off-script. Wolff has wasted no time in backing up his brief, yet successful, rookie campaign. In five starts this season, he has already posted four top-20s.                

LONGSHOTS

Scottie Scheffler (33-1) 

It's such a weird week that the longshots have the same odds as the mid-tier golfers. Scheffler is another first-timer, but he also has the best birdie average of anyone in the field. Scheffler is off to a great start this season, with two top-5s already, both of which came within his last three starts on the PGA Tour.    

Harris English (66-1)  

English was on fire this fall with four finishes in the top 6 in just six starts. His final start resulted in a missed cut, so perhaps the run is truly over, but he's had more than a month to reset and maybe he comes out firing again. His track record here lacks the high-end finishes that you'd like to see, but he's never missed a cut in six starts.                

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Highly Owned Pick: Sungjae Im - With no clear-cut picks, Im likely will rise to the top of the list. While his odds to win don't provide much value, I can't argue with his selection in a OAD format. Im will probably be used at some point, but there's no reason to save him for a certain event down the road.                      

Moderately Owned Pick: Matthew Wolff - Wolff has built up a bit of a following based on what appears to be a lot of potential, and his name pops a bit when compared to this field. Like Im, there isn't a spot that I'm saving for Wolff, which means he's in play any given week.            

Lightly Owned Pick: Scottie Scheffler - The picks are going to be all over the place this week, which means there will be a lot "lightly-owned" golfers.  I don't know for certain if Scheffler will be one, but something tells me he might slip through the cracks this week. If so, he'll have a lot of value in a OAD format.                            

Buyer Beware: The favorites - Usually this space is reserved for one golfer, but this week I'm going to caution against most of the favorites and any big name. That includes Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey and Tony Finau. This just isn't a chalk week.                        

Last Week: Matt Kuchar (MC) $0; Season - $69,000  

This Week: Scottie Scheffler - I debated between Im, An, Wolff and Scheffler, but in the end, I'm going with the guy who has the best birdie average. As for being a first-timer? Adam Long won as a first-timer last year in this spot.                                                    

FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Sungjae Im ($11,600)/Matthew Wolff ($10,700)/Brian Gay ($8,800)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Charles Howell III (T12); Streak - 1

This week: Harris English - He missed the cut in his most recent start, but that was more than a month ago and came at the end of an impressive run — he was probably gassed. Whatever the case, he's never missed a cut here in six tries and that should be seven after this week.