This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The PGA Tour heads to Korea this week as the international portion of the fall schedule gets underway. The next few weeks will see a few of the larger events on the fall schedule, which will lead to better fields than we've been accustomed to the last month.
A quick scan of the defending champs from this time last season shows names such as Koepka, Schauffele, Kuchar and Howell, which means the opportunity for a breakthrough win for some of the younger players on the PGA Tour is likely all but gone until 2020, with the exception of the opposite-field event in Bermuda next week.
As for this week, we've got a small field of just 78 golfers and a majority has experience on this track as it's been used the two previous years.
This Week: The CJ Cup at Nine Bridges – The Club at Nine Bridges, Jeju Island, South Korea
Last Year: Brooks Koepka shot a final-round 64 on his way to a four-stroke victory over Gary Woodland.
FAVORITES
Justin Thomas (7-1)
I'm a little surprised that Koepka, as the defending champ, is not listed as the favorite this week, but perhaps the oddsmakers and the public are catching on that he's just not reliable outside the majors, but more on that later. Thomas finished 36th here last year, but he won this event the year prior. It looks like JT is poised for a big season and likely will
The PGA Tour heads to Korea this week as the international portion of the fall schedule gets underway. The next few weeks will see a few of the larger events on the fall schedule, which will lead to better fields than we've been accustomed to the last month.
A quick scan of the defending champs from this time last season shows names such as Koepka, Schauffele, Kuchar and Howell, which means the opportunity for a breakthrough win for some of the younger players on the PGA Tour is likely all but gone until 2020, with the exception of the opposite-field event in Bermuda next week.
As for this week, we've got a small field of just 78 golfers and a majority has experience on this track as it's been used the two previous years.
This Week: The CJ Cup at Nine Bridges – The Club at Nine Bridges, Jeju Island, South Korea
Last Year: Brooks Koepka shot a final-round 64 on his way to a four-stroke victory over Gary Woodland.
FAVORITES
Justin Thomas (7-1)
I'm a little surprised that Koepka, as the defending champ, is not listed as the favorite this week, but perhaps the oddsmakers and the public are catching on that he's just not reliable outside the majors, but more on that later. Thomas finished 36th here last year, but he won this event the year prior. It looks like JT is poised for a big season and likely will get off to a good start the next few weeks.
Brooks Koepka (8-1)
Koepka is coming off of a partially torn patella tendon in his left knee, which probably explains his missed cut at the Shriners and also explains why he's not the favorite this week. Will he consider not being the favorite as a slight? Kidding, but seriously, Koepka doesn't like it when you disrespect him. OK, really seriously this time, Koepka is the best golfer in the world, but let's give him a little time to get healthy. Avoid Koepka at this price.
Hideki Matsuyama (16-1)
With all the big names in the field this week, I was a little surprised to see Matsuyama as the third-favorite, considering his lackluster start to the fall season, but when you consider his odds are double that of the second-favorite, I guess it makes sense. Matsuyama has one start at this event and it resulted in a T18. There's really not a lot of value with Matsuyama at this price.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Tommy Fleetwood (20-1)
We've yet to see Fleetwood on the PGA Tour this season, but he's been busy playing on the European Tour and is coming off a solid showing at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship where he posted a T5 two weeks ago. This will be Fleetwood's first start at this event, but that shouldn't be much of an issue as he's been a "first-timer" multiple times the last couple years on the PGA Tour and it's worked out more often than not.
Viktor Hovland (20-1)
It's strange, there aren't many veterans on the PGA Tour I would trust more to play well than Hovland. He's been incredibly consistent since turning pro last summer and picked up where he left off last season when he posted a T10 in his first start this season. The issue, of course, is he's yet to win and that's obviously something he needs to work on, but it is almost inevitable that he wins at some point.
Rafa Cabrera Bello (25-1)
Cabrera Bello is still looking for his first PGA Tour win, and it wouldn't surprise me if he were to pull off the feat outside of the United States where he's played his best golf to date. If previous results are any indication, Cabrera Bello will be in position to win this week come Sunday, the only question is if he can find another gear. Cabrera Bello has finished T3 and T11 in his two starts at this event.
LONGSHOTS
Cameron Smith (30-1)
Smith has been on quite the roller coaster the last three years. He picked up his first PGA Tour win three seasons ago and backed that up with three top-3s the following season, but last season was a disappointment as he failed to capitalize on the momentum from the previous season. It looks like he's getting back to his best form, however, and this is a spot where he can thrive as he's already posted a T3 and a T7 here.
Pat Perez (50-1)
It's rare to get a golfer with such a good outlook at this price, but who am I to argue? Perez is coming off a subpar season, but he has a lot going for him this week. For starters, his track record here is solid, with a T7 and a T5 in his two starts at this event. He's also coming in with some good form as he posted a T3 in his most recent start on the PGA Tour. Perhaps this is yet another rebirth for Perez.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Justin Thomas - It's admittedly a high-risk situation with Thomas this week. If he doesn't pan out, then you have to go the entire 2020 portion of the season without his services. I always fall back on the question — does he have a better chance of winning this week or at a specific major next season? Considering that Koepka is not at full strength and the field is missing many top players, the answer is probably this week.
Moderately Owned Pick: Rafa Cabrera Bello - OAD players are generally pretty conservative during fall season as they don't want to burn any big names for when the meat of the season starts, which makes a guy like Cabrera Bello enticing. Cabrera Bello is not a guy you would save for a major and doesn't have a great track record in the States, which makes him the perfect pick this week.
Lightly Owned Pick: Pat Perez - Maybe I'm off and Perez' ownership will be high this week, but with all the big names in the field this week, my guess is that most OAD players will try to find a name somewhere between Perez and Thomas. If that's the case, then this is a great opportunity to make up some ground or perhaps expand a lead with a guy who should finish well this week.
Buyer Beware: Brooks Koepka - For once this has nothing to do with his state of mind, rather the state of his body. Koepka did not look good in his return to competitive golf in his most recent start and considering the competition is getting stiffer, his prospects this week don't look great either. Best to take a wait-and-see approach with Koepka.
Last Week: Russell Henley - (T61) $16,500; Season - $272,431
This Week: Pat Perez - I don't care that there are some big guns in the field this week, Perez is more than capable of taking them down if he's on his game. Perez has always run really hot and really cold throughout his career and if he's got some of that form from a couple years ago, then I want in now.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Justin Thomas ($12,000)/Rafa Cabrera Bello ($11,100)/Pat Perez ($8,900)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Russell Henley (T61) - Streak - 1
This week: no cut
