Weekly PGA Preview: Mexico Open at Vidanta

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Mexico Open at Vidanta

Vidanta Vallarta
Vallarta, Mexico

The PGA Tour heads to Mexico for -- of course -- the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

Before we get to that, a few words about the state of professional golf right now. I'll start by stating that I don't believe in curses. They are an easy way to explain strange occurrences over long periods of time -- see the Red Sox and the curse of the Bambino -- but they all end at some point, so was it really a curse? I bring this up because the PGA Tour seems to be getting the short end of the stick at the moment, but of course we know it isn't. It's just running into a lot of bad luck lately, and no, I don't believe in luck either -- at least as a noun, just as an adjective -- but that's a discussion for another time.

We finally had a big name win this past week at Riviera, but along the way we lost Tiger Woods to a medical issue and Jordan Spieth to a technical issue, which is yet another conversation for another day. The fashion in which Matsuyama won -- a Sunday rally from way off the pace -- was to be certain a fantastic effort, but it wasn't exactly good for television, as there was no drama over the final hour or so. I have a feeling this will all work itself out over the course of the year and perhaps we're due for a great stretch ahead with tons of drama and big-name winners, but for now we're just in a bad place and it's hard to see the light. This week's field isn't helping matters either, but hey, THE PLAYERS isn't that far off and that's a fun event no matter who wins.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 10:00 AM ET Wednesday.

LAST YEAR

Tony Finau shot a final-round 66 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Jon Rahm.

FAVORITES

Tony Finau (9-1)

Finau is easily the biggest name in the field and als the defending champion, so it makes sense that he's the favorite. The problem is, he's not playing well right now. As we've seen at nearly every stop this year, if the favorite is not playing well heading into the tournament he's not going to win. Heck, this year, even if the favorite is playing well, he's not going to win. Long story short, there's no value here.

Nicolai Hojgaard (12-1)

Hojgaard is playing well -- well, better than Finau anyway -- but he has no winning pedigree on the PGA Tour. He also has just one start at this event, which resulted in a T33, so track record is not in his favor either. The fact that he's the second favorite really shows the state of this field. There's not a lot of value here -- a little more than Finau -- but not enough to make a play.

Keith Mitchell (20-1)

There have been two winners of this event on the current course, and both were long off the tee, so we know that driving distance should be pivotal for the eventual winner. Mitchell can go long off the tee, so he's got that box checked. He's also shown some good form recently with a top-10 at The American Express and a top-20 at the WM Phoenix Open.

THE NEXT TIER

Emiliano Grillo (30-1)

Now we get to the guy with probably the best mix of track record and form, although neither is great, just good. Grillo has two starts here, with two cuts made and one top-50, which was last year. His current form isn't great, but he does have four top-25s in his past five starts. He closed well the past two weeks, so if he gets off to a good start he could be a major factor. His odds were a lot lower to start with, but he is now down to here. I still like his chances.

Patrick Rodgers (35-1)

Rodgers has a good balance of track record and current form. He also has a pair of top-10s at this event in two tries and his form is good enough to think that he could make a run. Rodgers struggled in his two most recent stars, but he posted a top-15 at The Sentry and a top-10 at the Farmers this past month.

LONG SHOTS

Cameron Champ (50-1)

Champ's PGA Tour journey has been peculiar. He has won three times but has accomplished little outside those wins. With that said, he knows how to get into the winner's circle, and he doesn't need to be playing well prior to winning. He has two top-10s here in two starts, and as mentioned before, length is a factor and Champ has plenty of that.

Brandon Wu (60-1)

Like Grillo, Wu's odds have dropped noticeably. Wu has a great track record in this event, but his form is lacking. He finished solo third here last year and T2 the year prior. That's the good news. The bad news is that he has missed the cut in two of his four starts in 2024.

Mackenzie Hughes (65-1)

As someone with Hughes on a fantasy team I've been keeping a close eye on him, and what I saw this past week gives me hope that better things are just around the corner. Hughes got off to a great start but fell like a rock in the final round at the Genesis. Sure, you never want to see a guy tank like that, but that doesn't change the fact that he played well for most of the tournament.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Emiliano Grillo - I don't expect a lot of OAD owners to use Finau due to the size of the purse, but perhaps he will have a lot of backers considering he and Rahm dominated this event over the past two years. With that said, I think OAD players will go a little more conservative and take Grillo, who looks like the best option outside of Finau.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Patrick Rodgers - Rodgers has a good balance and I think he will catch the eye of a lot of OAD players. As mentioned earlier, there just simply aren't many players with a good track record here and good form, so anyone that does will be highly sought after.

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Brandon Wu - His recent form is going to scare off most OAD players, but that just means there is an opportunity to gain ground. It's always a risk taking a guy with little in the way of form, but it's hard to ignore the track record. Something tells me that Wu will get a boost by playing on this track again.

Buyer Beware: Tony Finau - Finau played very well in this event over the past two years, but I dare say his form wasn't this poor entering either of those two starts. In addition, there is some risk of wasting a player of Finau's caliber at an event like this. I think it would be wise to let the other teams in your league use Finau while you stash him for later when he's playing better.

This Week: Brandon Wu - I'm going with Wu -- mainly because of the track record -- but also because I'm expecting a majority of my league to be on Grillo and Rodgers, and maybe Finau as well. I'm not a fan of taking a guy with poor form, but some guys can simply get it going on certain tracks. Wu wasn't playing great entering either of the past two Mexico Opens and it just didn't matter.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Emiliano Grillo ($11,600)
Middle Range: Brandon Wu ($10,500)
Lower Range: Carson Young ($8,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Patrick Rodgers - You'd think that with a field like this, finding a golfer to simply make the cut would be fairly easy, but that's not really the case because strange things happen at events like this. Rodgers managed to play at a high level each of the past two years here, and his form is pretty good, last week's missed cut nonwithstanding.

Previous Results