Weekly Preview: Sony Open in Hawaii

Sony Open in Hawaii

Waialae CC
Honolulu, HI

The PGA Tour heads to Honolulu for the latest edition of the Sony Open in Hawaii.

This will be the first full field event in 2023, but before we get to the Sony, let's talk about what happened this past week briefly. The headline was obviously Morikawa blowing a huge 54-hole lead, but my two take- aways were that Rahm might be the unstoppable force this year that Scottie Scheffler was this past year and Collin Morikawa may be back to the guy that won multiple majors. Yes, Morikawa failed to close what should have been a slam dunk, but the fact that he was in that position was a positive sign for his prospects this season. If would be a huge boon for the PGA Tour if both of these guys were in top form this season. Rory McIlroy can only carry this tour so long, these other guys need to be at their best if the PGA Tour is to make the LIV Golf Tour irrelevant. 

But I digress, this week we have the Sony Open, which has been played at Waialae Country Club since the beginning of time, so we have more than enough course history. What we don't have however is a read on the form of most of the guys in the field, so it'll be a lot like this past week in that sense. There will be some guessing on who is and isn't in form currently.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Wednesday.

LAST YEAR

Hideki Matsuyama shot a final-round 63 on his way to a playoff victory over Russell Henley.

FAVORITES

Tom Kim (10-1)

Well, that didn't take long. I think the oddsmakers and the public wanted one more look at Kim before giving him the respect he deserves and after another strong showing this past week at the Sentry, Kim is finally in the group of favorites to win. Kim was 25-1 this past week against a short field and now he's all the way up here. That's quite the jump, but he doesn't have to worry about Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, or Collin Morikawa this week. Not a ton of value here, but still a decent play as Kim is looking sharp out of the gate in 2023.

Sungjae Im (12-1)

Im played well enough this past week to make me think he's got a shot this week. His track record here leaves plenty to be desired as his best finish in four starts was a T16 in 2019, but if his form is good, I think we can expect a good showing. Now, with that said, 12-1 does not provide enough value for a guy that has yet to crack the top-10 at this event and missed the cut here last year.

Jordan Spieth (15-1)

It may seem like a bit of surprise to see Spieth's name in the field, but he's actually played this event in about half of his seasons on the PGA Tour. His track record here is scattered, with a solo-3rd in 2017, but two MCs also. This week won't be about course history as much as form and he's coming off a T13 in a 39-man field, so that tells us...nothing unfortunately. Spieth could easily win, but at these odds and with only one high finish in four starts here, he's probably not the best option for a win bet.

THE NEXT TIER

Russell Henley (21-1)

Can I list him here only because I used in my OAD pool this past week? Is that enough? I'll stop you before answering as the answer is yes, that is enough, but I'll keep going anyway. Henley did not play great this past week, but he wasn't so far off that a win this week is out of the question. Throw in a runner-up at this event this past year and you have the makings of a decent win bet.

Corey Conners (22-1)

It's been said that "no news is good news", but that's not true for current form, so the question is, "is decent form better than no form"? We should get a good read on that topic this week as there are a handful of guys in the field that fared neither well nor poorly this past week at the Sentry. Conners is one of those guys as he finished T18 this past week. Conners however has a solid record here, with three top-15s in four starts, including a T3 in 2019.

Tom Hoge (22-1)
    
While many in the field come in off of a blah effort this past week at the Sentry, Hoge actually comes in with some momentum as he posted a T3. More importantly, Hoge posted a final-round 64 this past week, so Hoge is coming in really hot. Hoge also has a nice track record here, good enough to make you think he can win, yet bad enough to keep the odds in check.

LONG SHOTS

Taylor Montgomery (33-1)
   
Just like Kim this past week, this is a "prove it" week for Montgomery when it comes to the oddsmakers and the betting public. Montgomery was on fire this past fall as he posted six top-15s in seven starts. His best finish was a solo third at the Fortinet Championship in September. We haven't seen him since mid-November however, so we're all curious to see how he responds off the long break. My guess is he'll be fine, but he'll obviously need to find that extra gear to get into the winner's circle.

Harris English (45-1)
   
English was out due to injury for most of this past season, and while he struggled towards to end of the season, he played much better to start the new season and it looks like a return to form is possible. English hasn't played all that well at this event over the past few years, but he has played well here at times over the years. He also apparently loves heading to Hawaii, as he's played the Sony Open 10 times throughout his career. He may not be ready to win just yet, but at these odds, he's worth a look.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Sungjae Im - This is a good time to go over a little strategy. With the new "elevated" events, there is now a huge discrepancy in purse sizes between standard events and the elevated ones. For example, a winner's share at an elevated event is going to be over $2 million, while other events, like this week will be closer to $1.4 million. With that knowledge, I now have guys that I'll save for majors and those that I'll save for elevated events. There are two such players in the field, but Im is not one of them.

Moderately-owned Pick: Russell Henley - With the smaller purse, most OAD players will likely be looking in the mid-tier range for a pick this week. Henley is a solid candidate within this group as he has a high finish here and he's got four rounds in already.

Lightly-owned Pick: Harris English - At his best, you might want to save English for an elevated event, but there's not guarantee he gets back to his form from a couple years ago. If you aren't certain he'll get there or if you think he does get there and it starts this week, then English could be your guy.

Buyer Beware: Hideki Matsuyama - Matsuyama finds himself among the favorites, and that makes sense, as he's one of the bigger names in the field and is the defending champion. However, his form over the past six months leaves a lot to be desired. Matsuyama hasn't recorded a top-10 finish since last year's U.S. Open.

This Week: Corey Conners - A lot of variables were considered, not the least of which is the prize pool, which is the only reason I did not go with Kim. If this were an elevated event, Kim would be my pick, but he's become too valuable to use at an event like this. He'd have to get first or second to provide enough value, which is why I'm going with Conners, who is also a solid golfer, but he's not quite at the "save for elevated events" level yet.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Tom Kim ($11,900)
Middle Range: Cam Davis ($10,000)
Lower Range: Justin Suh ($8,700)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Harris English - Rule No. 1 when selecting a golfer in this format: Make sure they are invested in the event. During majors and elevated events, you can bet that everyone has bought in to the task at hand, but in tournaments with less import, that's not always the case. Throw in the locale this week and you can be assured that some guys are in "vacation" mode. That won't be the case for English, as he always shows up to play here.

Previous Results