Weekly Preview: ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

Accordia Golf Narashino CC
Chiba, Japan

The PGA Tour heads to Japan for the next edition of the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP.

This is turning out to be quite the stretch for golf fans. Last week we got Tom Kim and Patrick Cantlay battling until the final hole, and now we get a pretty impressive field, at least by fall season standards. I'm not about to confuse this event with THE PLAYERS -- after all, there's no JT, Spieth or Rahm -- but we do have a lot of talent -- mostly international -- at the top of the list. 

Something to keep in mind when looking at course history is the fact this event was played at the current venue in 2019 and again in 2021, but was held elsewhere in 2020. There's not a lot of course history to begin with, so make sure you aren't including the middle of the three years in your analysis. 

Now, back to the field. As mentioned, we have some talent on hand, and most of these guys played recently, so we should have a pretty good feel for who will play well.
                    
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 4:15 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Hideki Matsuyama shot a final-round 65 on his way to a five-stroke victory over Cameron Tringale and Brendan Steele.

FAVORITES

Xander Schauffele (17-2)

These odds are pretty light for any golfer, especially when there is plenty of talent around him. I get it, though, as Schauffele just continues to get better and better. He is still a question mark in major championships, but that's for another time. Will Schauffele win this week? We know his form is good, but his track record in two starts here is rather average. He recorded a top-10 in 2019 and posted a T28 this past year, but considering the condensed field, the T28 doesn't look as good as it usually does. I like Schauffele this week, but not at this number.

Sungjae Im (10-1)

I was a little surprised to see Im open as the second favorite, especially when you consider the next two guys on the list. Well, he and Matsuyama now have the same odds. Im appears to be in good form, as he posted a solo seventh at the Shriners. He finished T3 here in 2019, but I don't think those two results justify these odds.

Hideki Matsuyama (10-1)

I had to figure out a way to get Matsuyama onto this list when I started writing, as he deserves to be among the top three options at the betting window. Well, bettors took care of that for me, as he is now tied with Im. Matsuyama finished runner-up here in 2019 and won this event in 2021. He obviously fares well in his home country.

THE NEXT TIER

Tom Kim (14-1)

I mentioned this past week that once Kim won again, we wouldn't be seeing 25-1 odds on him any longer. Well, that number was pretty much cut in half, even against a better field. There's no denying that Kim is the next big thing in golf. The only question that remains is, how high is his ceiling? The guy had tons of expectations over the past few months and all he did was outperform them. Maybe this is an extended heater and he'll cool down soon, but even if he's amid a hot streak, this price is pretty tempting.

Mito Pereira (31-1)

This will be Pereira's first try at this event, which is the only reason he's listed at these odds. He is coming off an impressive showing at the Shriners in which he finished T4. We all know how good he is when he's on, and if he can carry his momentum overseas he should be a factor.

Davis Riley (41-1)

Riley is coming off a campaign in which he posted over $3 million in earnings, but he's still one of a few candidates to really break out this season. You could argue that he broke out already, but now it seems like these guys break out for size, like Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns. I'm not saying Riley is next, but he's definitely in the mix. As for this week, the T19 he posted in his most recent start provides reason to believe he could contend.

LONG SHOTS

Maverick McNealy (42-1)

McNealy's odds have bounced around a bit and have settled around where they opened. He posted a T10 at the Shriners after both opening and closing with a 64. McNealy has gotten four rounds in at this venue, which is always a good thing. He posted a T25 here this past year.

Matthew NeSmith (45-1)

I went with NeSmith as my OAD pick last week, and that turned out to maybe be the greatest value play I've even made in this column, as all he did was finish T2. That followed a T9 in his previous start. He was listed at 70-1 when I first started writing, so the oddsmakers don't necessarily believe he will keep it up. However, the public disagrees. Perhaps NeSmith is the next guy to break through and he takes his mini-heater to the next level.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Hideki Matsuyama - The track record and the home field advantage are bound to draw a lot of OAD players his way, and I can't argue with the play. Matsuyama definitely has value down the road, but it's hard to argue with a runner-up and a victory in his two starts here.

Moderately-owned Pick: Tom Kim - I had him in this spot last week, and for those that didn't use him, they've got a tough decision to make. It's obviously difficult to win in consecutive weeks, but as I was alluding to earlier, Kim appears to be special and who knows what he's capable of. Now that he's won during the fall I'd probably hold off on him until 2023, but he certainly has value here.

Lightly-owned Pick: Matthew NeSmith - Let's keep NeSmith in the same spot as well. What are the odds he can do it again? Given the way his odds have plummeted, it seems there are plenty of believers.

Buyer Beware: Sungjae Im - I'll use this as a quick refresher on how this preview is laid out. The "favorites" section is simply the top three on the odds chart. It is not who I think will play well in a given tournament. Im was listed in that section because he's the second favorite, but as you are already aware by reading, I don't agree with price. He's a great candidate for this section, because I think both Matsuyama and Kim should be lower than him on the betting board.

This Week: Maverick McNealy - I don't feel great about this pick, but I stated this past week that I did not want to use any big-name golfers in the fall, and with NeSmith's runner-up I'm now afforded the luxury of playing small ball until 2023. As such, I'll go with McNealy, who is in good form and has played this course before. It came down to McNealy and Pereira and the course knowledge won out.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Tom Kim ($11,100)
Middle Range: Mito Pereira ($9,700)
Lower Range: Andrew Putnam ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Previous Results