Wells Fargo Championship Preview: Rory's a Heavy Favorite

The PGA Tour heads to North Carolina this week for the Wells Fargo Championship. Not in attendance is Masters champ Tiger Woods, who will not get a tune-up for the PGA Championship in two weeks. Several players, though, are in the field looking to get their games in shape for "Glory's last ... uh ... Glory's second shot." 

As for this week, we've got plenty of course history in play as Quail Hollow has been the course of choice since 2003, with the exception of 2017. This almost feels like a bit of restart post-Masters as we had the Masters' hangover week, followed by the gimmicky team-event; now a straightforward event with a ton of firepower in the field.  

This Week: Wells Fargo Championship – Quail Hollow, Charlotte 

Last Year: Jason Day shot a final-round 69 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Aaron Wise and Nick Watney.  

FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy (6-1) 

The hottest non-major golfer on the planet is back at it this week and is a heavy favorite. There's plenty of reason to be excited about McIlroy this week as he's won this event twice and has finished outside the top 20 once in eight starts. His track record here is among the best, and although he didn't fare well at the Masters in his most recent start, he should have little trouble getting back into the groove this week.  

Jason Day (10-1)   

Day is the defending champ and his overall record at Quail Hollow is solid, but he's only played here three times, which is a little concerning. Perhaps it was always a scheduling or a health issue that prevented him from teeing it up here, but normally when guys have a good feel for a place they like to play there as often as possible. Whatever the case, he had little trouble getting around Quail Hollow last year and flashed some good form in his most recent start, which leaves just one box left unchecked and that's his health. No reports of any spasms this week, which means he gets the green light. 

Rickie Fowler (10-1) 

Just like the players listed ahead of Fowler, he too has a strong track record at this event. Fowler won this event in 2012 and has never missed a cut here in seven starts. Fowler has cooled a bit since his hot start to the year, but he did post a top-10 at the Masters, which leads me to believe that he's not that far off. He'll need to have his best this week though, to get on top of this field. In my mind, there is clear separation between McIlroy/Day and Fowler this week.    

MID-TIER GOLFERS                        

Justin Rose (12-1) 

There's really no other way to explain what happened to Rose at the Masters than to say, "it happens." And while that's not all that comforting, it's golf and it happens. These guys aren't robots, they are going to have bad weeks. Unfortunately for Rose, and those of us who took him in our OAD pools during the Masters, his bad week happened at the exact wrong time. However, he's simply too good to let that disappointment linger. He'll be back in the mix soon, perhaps this week. His track record here is not nearly as strong as the three guys in front of him, but he has posted top-5s in his two most recent starts here.  

Phil Mickelson (25-1) 

Mickelson's track record at this event is simply amazing. He's finished outside the top 25 here, twice in 15 starts. He has 10 top-10s here, eight of which are top-5s as well. He finished runner-up at this event in 2010 and has finished third on two occasions as well. And yet, he's never won here. How he can play that well here, year after year and not find a win somewhere along the lines is astounding. Perhaps he finally breaks through this year, or not, either way, he's going to be in contention.   

Sergio Garcia (25-1) 

Garcia has quietly put together a decent stretch of golf the last couple months, with a top-5 at the WGC Match Play event and a runner-up showing last week at the Zurich Classic. He did miss the cut at the Masters, but as we know, that happens. His track record at this event is a bit scattered, but he has made seven of eight cuts and he did post a runner-up showing in 2005.  

LONGSHOTS

Lucas Glover (40-1)  

Glover has made 11 cuts in 14 starts this season and every one of those made cuts has resulted in a top-20. For whatever reason, Glover has been unable to parlay any of those top-20s into a top-3 and he had only one top-5, but he's continuing to put himself in the mix week after week. His track record here is all over the place, but he won this event in 2011 and his form is as good now as it's been in a long time. 

Jason Kokrak (40-1) 

If you are big into course history, then Kokrak is not your guy this week, but if you favor recent form, then he's definitely worth a look. Kokrak has played well at just about every stop this season, and although his track record here leaves something to be desired, he should be able to overcome that with his solid form. Kokrak enters this week on a streak of four consecutive top-25s on the PGA Tour.  

ONE AND DONE GOLFER 

Highly Owned Pick: Rory McIlroy - There should be an asterisk by this selection as I can't imagine many OAD players still have McIlroy available, but if they do, expect them to deploy McIlroy this week. There's everything to like about McIlroy this week, and the only thing that gives me caution are all the other quality options.        

Moderately Owned Pick: Jason Day - Day will also be a popular pick this week and in fact, he might be the most popular pick as there haven't been a lot of good spots to use him this year, which means many OAD players still have him available. Day appears healthy and his game looks good, which means he's a guy you should consider this week.      

Lightly Owned Pick: Lucas Glover - He hasn't played well here in recent years, then again, his game hasn't been great in recent years and there's likely a correlation there. With his game back, he should once again be competitive here this year and if you are looking to make up ground, I can't imagine he'll be a super popular pick this week with all the big names in the field.             

Buyer Beware: Patrick Reed - Reed has a decent track record here, and his odds to win this week are in line with Mickelson and Garcia, but he's not a good option this week as his game is nowhere near where it needs to be. Reed's play was largely to blame for his team missing the cut at the Zurich last week.            

Last Week: Patrick Reed/Patrick Cantlay (MC) - $0; Season - $4,370,277  

This Week: Phil Mickelson - Some weeks it's tough to find one guy I really like; this is not one of those weeks. There are at least four guys I would feel comfortable taking in this spot, but Mickelson appears to be the best option. I don't like that he hasn't been able to break through here, but the way he's played this course, you can almost guarantee of top-5 this week.                                      
FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Jason Day ($11,800)/Lucas Glover ($10,400)/Trey Mullinax ($8,900) 

SURVIVOR PICK 

Last week: Patrick Reed/Patrick Cantlay - (MC); Streak - 0 

This week: Phil Mickelson - If you sensed a little anger toward Patrick Reed earlier, now you know why. Not only did I get a goose egg in my OAD, I also used his team as my Survivor selection. Time to move on though and this pick couldn't be easier as Mickelson is an absolute lock to make the cut this week.