This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
Charles Schwab Challenge
Fort Worth, Texas
Colonial Country Club - Par 70 - 7,209 yards
Field - 120 entrants
Purse - $8.4M
The Preview
A week after Southern Hills Country Club showed its teeth while allowing only a dozen PGA Championship entrants to finish in red numbers, the historic Colonial Country Club now gets a turn to display its tight fairways and puny bentgrass greens as it once again plays host to the Charles Schwab Challenge. Finding the short stuff off the tee is essential while navigating around Colonial, and as nine of the layout's par-4s measure 445 yards or less, short irons and full wedges will be prevalent on approach shots. It's going to be hot in the DFW area this weekend, with significant winds expected to play a huge factor down the stretch in Rounds 3 and 4.
Recent Champions
2021 - Jason Kokrak
2020 - Daniel Berger
2019 - Kevin Na
2018 - Justin Rose
2017 - Kevin Kisner
2016 - Jordan Spieth
2015 - Chris Kirk
2014 - Adam Scott
2013 - Boo Weekley
2012 - Zach Johnson
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Driving accuracy
Proximity: 125-175 yards
SG: Putting (bentgrass)
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Collin Morikawa - $49
The value of course history is often mentioned when it comes to Colonial Country Club, but Morikawa earned runner-up honors in his 2020 debut before adding another top-15 result here last year, which should come as no surprise on a layout that rewards precision both off the tee and on approaches into small greens. In April, he gained 7.1 strokes with his irons at a similar setup in Hilton Head, but Morikawa also ranks third in SG: Off-the-Tee and fourth in P3: 200-225 efficiency over his past 24 measured rounds. All four of the par-3s measure in the 190-247 yard range this week. A T55 at the PGA Championship could be a red flag for the casual DFS gamer, but this was primarily a putting issue as he gained strokes everywhere but on the greens. He also was exceptional from 150 to 175 yards out, picking up an average of 8.3 feet in proximity on the field from this distance.
Scottie Scheffler - $46
Scheffler was on the wrong end of the weather draw last week in Tulsa where he missed the cut by two shots, but the World No. 1 still gained 2.4 strokes on his approach shots in just 36 holes. He's ninth in proximity from 125-150 yards over his last 12 rounds, and the MC at the PGA Championship should help cap his rostership back home in the Dallas area.
Glue Guys
Abraham Ancer - $36
Ancer had not recorded a single top-30 finish in a stroke play event on the PGA Tour through his first 10 starts to begin the 2022 calendar year, but he bounced back with a T9 at Southern Hills Country Club where he ranked T7 in driving accuracy and T12 in GIR percentage while gaining 4.6 strokes on approach. He's posted back-to-back T14s at Colonial the past two years, and he's 13th over his last 12 rounds in SG: Putting, P4: 400-450 efficiency and proximity from 150-175 yards.
Tommy Fleetwood - $35
Fleetwood tied for fifth not only on the leaderboard, but also in GIR percentage last week at the PGA Championship, and he's now gained strokes from tee to green in six straight events dating back to THE PLAYERS. He finished top-25 in six of his last seven starts in a stroke play setting, and he's fifth among the field in both SG: Putting and P4: 400-450 efficiency over his last 24 rounds. Fleetwood is a CSC debutant, but his game sets up very nicely for Colonial.
Chris Kirk - $29
Second to only Will Zalatoris ($40) in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 24 rounds, Kirk is now coming off a top-5 performance at Southern Hills where he also hit 41 of 56 fairways in regulation. Kirk has been on the positive side of both SG: OTT and SG: APP in an incredible nine consecutive starts, so it's just a matter of bringing his putter to the Charles Schwab Challenge. He picked up 7.6 strokes on these greens en route to his victory here at Colonial in 2015.
Bargain Bin
Davis Riley - $26
Riley putted the lights out on the way to back-to-back top-10s at the Mexico Open and AT&T Byron Nelson, which preceded a T13 at the PGA Championship where he notched career highs in SG: OTT and SG: APP. The Dallas resident now heads back to Texas ranked fourth in SG: Putting, fifth in SG: OTT, ninth in SG: T2G and ninth in P4: 400-450 efficiency over his past 12 rounds.
C.T. Pan - $22
Pan tied for third in his third career outing at the Charles Schwab Challenge when he paced the field in par-5 scoring back in 2019, but he's now top-25 over his past 24 rounds in driving accuracy, SG: T2G, SG: Approach and P3: 200-225 efficiency. He's gained an average of 5.1 strokes from tee to green per event throughout his last four starts with a low standard deviation of 1.49 and just a 0.29 coefficient of variation, which means he's experiencing a relatively consistent tee-to-green trend rather than a rogue outlier performance boosting this metric.
Matthew NeSmith - $21
NeSmith went 62-69 at Lakewood CC and Royal Oaks earlier this week in Dallas to qualify for the 2022 U.S. Open, so he'll ride that momentum into Colonial. He's also 23rd or better in SG: T2G, Prox: 150-175 yards and driving accuracy over his past 24 rounds on the PGA Tour, which is a stretch that includes a T3 result at the Valspar Championship.
