This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 69 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600k UFC 284 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Women's Flyweight
Jessica Andrade (24-9-0) v. Erin Blanchfield (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Andrade ($8,500), Blanchfield ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Andrade (-155), Blanchfield (+135)
Odds to Finish: -250
This card was originally scheduled to be headlined by Blanchfield and Taila Santos before the latter withdrew and Andrade agreed to step in on a weeks' notice.
The former UFC Women's Strawweight Champion, Andrade fought less than a month ago, battering Lauren Murphy in what was one of the most lopsided unanimous decisions you will ever see. While Jessica's best moments have come at 115 pounds, she's more than capable of making a run at 125 pounds. She's one of the best female fighters in the world, regardless of weight class.
Blanchfield is one of the top prospects in the sport today. She's a perfect 4-0 in the UFC and is coming off a first-round submission win over Molly McCann at Madison Square Garden last November. It was nearly as lopsided as the Andrade v. Murphy fight, as Blanchfield pounded McCann for three-plus minutes before finally clamping on the kimura that ended the bout. Set to turn 24 years of age this coming May, Blanchfield has one of the highest ceilings in all of female mixed martial arts.
Both women lean very heavily on their wrestling for success. Blanchfield averages four takedowns per 15 minutes, while Andrade is at 2.72. Both defend the takedown well, with Jessica at 73 percent and Erin at 75 percent. Both women fight with an immense amount of physicality, and the winner of this bout figures to be the competitor who is able to out-muscle their opponent at the point of attack.
The thing that stands out the most here is the gap in competition each fighter has faced. Jessica has been in the Octagon with the likes of Valentina Shevchenko, Rose Namajunas, Zhang Weili, Claudia Gadelha, Tecia Torres, etc... The best opponent Blanchfield has seen to date is probably Miranda Maverick. It's something that could easily come into play on fight night.
Erin is three inches taller, will have a four-inch reach edge and is nearly eight years younger. She's also probably the better athlete. That said, this is one of those instances in which I have to see Blanchfield perform at a high-level against an excellent opponent before I can pick her.
I was going to pick her over Santos without question, but this is a big ask. If Erin isn't able to consistently land takedowns, I think Jessica wins. That said, I wouldn't blame anyone that decides to roll the dice on Blanchfield at plus-money given how impressive she's been. It could be quite a while until you are able to roster her at a discount again.
UFC VEGAS 69 PICK: Andrade
Light Heavyweight
William Knight (11-4-0) v. Marcin Prachnio (15-6-0)
DK Salaries: Knight ($8,200), Prachnio ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Knight (-115), Prachnio (-105)
Odds to Finish: -200
The fight was due to take place nearly exactly three months ago before it was postponed for undisclosed reasons.
A rare two-time victor on Dana White's Contender Series, Knight -- the loser of back-to-back bouts -- will probably be fighting for his job here. The 34-year-old Connecticut native went 3-1 in his first four UFC bouts, including an impressive unanimous decision win over Alonzo Menifield. He then fought Maxim Grishin last February and missed weight by 12 pounds, the largest mark in company history. That fight ultimately went down at heavyweight (Knight dropped a unanimous decision), as did his last bout against Devin Clark last April (a knockout defeat).
Prachnio hasn't been much better, dropping four of his first six bouts with the company. He was actually knocked out in each of his first three and was shockingly given a fourth opportunity. He rebounded with back-to-back victories over Khalil Rountree (unanimous decision) and Ike Villanueva (knockout) before dropping a unanimous decision to Philipe Lins last April.
The obvious elephant in the room here is how Knight will look on the scale. I'm pretty shocked the company is allowing him to compete again at light heavyweight. It's obviously his best division and really his only chance to compete long term, as at 5-foot-10, he's way too undersized to handle much bigger opposition.
This is not a deep card, and a fight like this that doesn't project to last all that long becomes intriguing in a hurry.
Prachnio's past durability issues make me lean in Knight's favor in what projects as a pick 'em bout, but I would reverse my decision if William struggles on the scale again.
UFC VEGAS 69 PICK: Knight
Lightweight
Jim Miller (35-16-0, 1NC) v. Alexander Hernandez (13-6-0)
DK Salaries: Miller ($7,300), Hernandez ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Miller (+190), Hernandez (-225)
Odds to Finish: -225
Miller was originally scheduled to face Gabriel Benitez here. He withdrew for undisclosed reasons, and Hernandez accepted the fight on a little over a weeks' notice.
Now 39 years of age, Miller has won three straight on the heels of brief 1-3 stretch in his prior four fights. All three of the wins have come via stoppage, with the most recent being a submission of Donald Cerrone in a welterweight fight last July. It was Miller's 24th victory with the UFC, the most in company history. Unlike many other aging fighters, the UFC has been careful regarding who it matches the New Jersey native up against. Miller is a true pro and keeps himself in pristine shape, so I see no reason he can't be moderately successful for several more years as long as the company is mindful of his opposition.
Hernandez began his UFC run with a shocking, late-notice 42-second knockout of Beneil Dariush in March 2018, but he's been below .500 since (4-5) and is at risk of losing his job if he comes up short here. Hernandez has some power and is a BJJ Black Belt, so it's not as if he's lacking talent. It's just a matter of consistently putting it all together. Now 30 years of age, time is running out.
I have said for a long while that Miller is unable to win any fight these days other than a grinding mat battle. Yes, he's scored a couple of knockouts recently, but that's not his game. It never has been and certainly isn't at this stage of his career. He needs to pressure his opposition in hopes of eventually getting the fight to the ground. Hernandez is bigger and stronger, so that may be difficult here.
It seems abundantly clear that is how Miller will go about attacking Alex considering the latter's woeful 61 percent takedown defense. But Miller's is even worse at 47 percent, and Hernandez is averaging 1.63 takedowns per 15 minutes, so Jim can't get reckless in his shots.
My main issue regarding Hernandez has been his fight IQ. He doesn't seem to process things particularly well inside the Octagon, and that seems likely to be all the more magnified against a veteran in Miller with the most fights (40) and wins (24) in UFC history.
Alex has such an edge in terms of pure physical gifts that I can't pick against him, but I do like Miller as an underdog. I could see him making this an ugly, grinding affair, which is how Jim goes about winning fights at this stage of his career.
UFC VEGAS 69 PICK: Hernandez
Light Heavyweight
Ovince Saint Preux (26-16-0) v. Philipe Lins (15-5-0)
DK Salaries: Saint Preux ($7,400), Lins ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Saint Preux (+185), Lins (-215)
Odds to Finish: -120
These two were due to fight this past December. Saint Preux withdrew and was replaced by Alexander Gustafsson, only to then see Lins withdraw.
Set to turn 40 years of age in early April, OSP has been trending in the wrong direction for the better part of the past 4.5 years. He's 2-5 in his last seven bouts, with his most recent win being a split decision over the since-retired Shogun Rua last May. Saint Preux has always been an exceptional athlete -- he played Division I football at the University of Tennessee -- but he never really learned the finer points of mixed martial arts. His struggles have predictably intensified as he's aged and his athleticism has waned.
A former millionaire following his winning of the 2018 PFL Heavyweight Tournament, Lins made his UFC debut against Andrei Arlovski in May 2020. He dropped a unanimous decision in that one before being knocked out by Tanner Boser the following June. He took nearly two full years off before returning last June and taking a unanimous decision from Marcin Prachnio, which undoubtedly saved his job. The Prachnio fight was Lins' first with the UFC at 205 pounds.
Lins is in a difficult spot. He doesn't have the fight-altering power to compete at heavyweight, and he's not athletic enough to consistently threaten his opposition at light heavyweight. To be honest, I'm not sure what the answer is. I don't expect a prolonged winning streak regardless of which division Lins' decides to make his long-term home.
No disrespect to Lins, but this sets up as a terrific matchup for OSP. He's going to lap Lins in terms of athleticism and should be just fine as long as he moves his feet and doesn't get reckless and provide a stationary target for the Brazilian to tee off on. Of course, nothing has come easily for Saint Preux in recent memory.
OSP seems like the biggest value play on the entire card. There are major concerns regarding his future, and he's put forth more than a few stinkers in recent memory, but there's a clear path to victory for him in this fight, and he's been priced like a significant underdog.
UFC VEGAS 69 PICK: Saint Preux
Other Bouts
Light Heavyweight
Jordan Wright (12-4-0, 1NC) v. Zac Pauga (6-1-0)
DK Salaries: Wright ($7,000), Pauga ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Wright (+230), Pauga (-275)
Odds to Finish: -500
UFC VEGAS 69 PICK: Pauga
Heavyweight
Josh Parisian (15-5-0) v. Jamal Pogues (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: Parisian ($7,200), Pogues ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Parisian (+200), Pogues (-240)
Odds to Finish: -105
UFC VEGAS 69 PICK: Pogues
Women's Bantamweight
Lina Lansberg (10-7-0) v. Mayra Bueno Silva (9-2-1)
DK Salaries: Lansberg ($6,700), Silva ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Lansberg (+370), Silva (-460)
Odds to Finish: -105
UFC VEGAS 69 PICK: Silva
Featherweight
Jamall Emmers (18-6-0) v. Khusein Askhabov (23-0-0)
DK Salaries: Emmers ($7,900), Askhabov ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Emmers (+110), Askhabov (-130)
Odds to Finish: -125
UFC VEGAS 69 PICK: Emmers
Lightweight
Nazim Sadykhov (7-1-0) v. Evan Elder (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Sadykhov ($8,600), Elder ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Sadykhov (-170), Elder (+145)
Odds to Finish: -120
UFC VEGAS 69 PICK: Sadykhov
Welterweight
AJ Fletcher (9-2-0) v. Themba Gorimbo (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Fletcher ($9,100), Gorimbo ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Fletcher (-255), Gorimbo (+215)
Odds to Finish: -170
UFC VEGAS 69 PICK: Fletcher
Flyweight
Clayton Carpenter (6-0-0) v. Juancamilo Ronderos (4-1-0)
DK Salaries: Carpenter ($9,300), Ronderos ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Carpenter (-285), Ronderos (+240)
Odds to Finish: -240
UFC VEGAS 69 PICK: Carpenter
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 69 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
