UFC 319 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC 319 comes to us live from the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. Fans will be treated to spectacular main and co-main events Saturday, both of which feature exciting, dominant fighters. Unlike last week, we have quite a few closely-lined fights on this slate, as well as a few underdogs to help differentiate players from the field.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including the UFC 319 Special, which awards a whopping $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column.
Main Event - Middleweight Title Fight
(C) Dricus Du Plessis (23-2-0) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (14-0-0)
DK Salaries: Du Plessis ($7,300), Chimaev ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Du Plessis (+150), Chimaev (-180)
Any line that pits these two competitors far apart looks a bit strange to me, as both are undefeated in the UFC and riding impressive win streaks. The South African champion comes in having won his last 11 contests, solidifying a changing of the guard with victories over divisional mainstays Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland.
Chimaev has been an absolute whirlwind during his time in the UFC, defeating eight of his 10 opponents by stoppage en route to his 14 victories. This includes a dominant win over former champion Robert Whittaker in what looked to be the toughest test of his career on paper.
As good as each man has looked at times, they both have shown vulnerabilities, which could potentially play to the strength of their opponent. In the case of Du Plessis, his erratic and sloppy striking has forced him to dig out of bad situations more often than not. It will be interesting to see how he fares against a strong grappler in Chimaev, as it wasn't too long ago that Derek Brunson dominated "StillKnocks" with his wrestling in the first round of their fight.
Chimaev should have an opportunity to push a similar advantage, but we have seen "Borz" slow down tremendously late in fights, resulting in razor-close decisions against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman. That makes this fight something of a binary, as the early portion will heavily favor the challenger, while Du Plessis has made a career out of pouring on the pressure until his man breaks.
It just seems too dangerous to have a slow start against a fighter like Chimaev, who has notched six of his 14 victories by submission. He is also a far better control grappler than Brunson ever was, which could limit the opportunities Du Plessis has to return to his feet after being taken down. Though we are in the uncomfortable spot of picking the fighter that has to win early, it is almost a guarantee that Chimaev will bring the offense in Round 1, and Du Plessis hasn't faced anyone who can finish as quickly or devastatingly as Chimaev.
As a dominant champion at underdog odds, I have no doubt that Du Plessis will get heavy ownership on DraftKings. That may leave us with a relative scarcity play on Chimaev, as questions remain regarding his ability to win a fight over five rounds. I will take whatever edge is available, as the onslaught that Chimaev brings in the first 10 minutes should be enough to close the show.
UFC 319 Pick: Chimaev
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Co-Main Event - Featherweight
Aaron Pico (13-4-0) vs. Lerone Murphy (16-0-1)
DK Salaries: Pico ($8,200), Murphy ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Pico (-195), Murphy (+165)
Similarly dominant fighters square off in our co-main event, with Bellator and PFL mega-prospect Aaron Pico coming into this bout having won nine of his last 10 fights, including first-round knockouts in his last two contests against Pedro Carvalho and Henry Corrales. It should also be noted that Pico's loss during this stretch came when he separated his shoulder in the first round against Jeremy Kennedy.
Murphy has earned every bit of his undefeated record, with his last three wins coming against powerful and crafty strikers in Josh Emmett, Dan Ige and Edson Barboza. While finishes have eluded him of late, this can be attributed to the quality of his competition, along with his style, which has been built to be competitive with opponents everywhere.
This omnipresence has been an asset for Murphy, but Pico came on the MMA scene as an accomplished amateur boxer and wrestler, skills that have only sharpened as he has gotten deeper into his professional career. While he had to bounce back from a couple of losses early, Pico seems the better for it, as few opponents have since been able to match the 28-year-old for speed, power and skill.
Murphy will have the tools to make this close, however, as he is a crisp boxer who has shown the ability to wrestle. "Miracle" has been good about managing his energy down the stretch in longer fights, but Pico has made fitness his calling card, frequently putting a pace on opponents and sapping them with well-timed body shots.
The recent influx of Bellator stars (such as Patchy Mix) who have underperformed may make some hesitant to take Pico as chalk versus a fighter tested against top UFC talent, but Mix had shown a few troubling signs leading up to his debut. These red flags have been absent in Pico's latter-day career, which makes me perfectly comfortable in declaring that this bout will be his arrival on the world's biggest stage.
UFC 319 Pick: Pico
Welterweight
Carlos Prates (21-7-0) vs. Geoff Neal (16-6-0)
DK Salaries: Prates ($9,100), Neal ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Prates (-260), Neal (+210)
Prates came into the UFC looking primed for title contention. The Brazilian fighter laid waste to the bottom half of the division in his first four fights. stopping each opponent with strikes in the first or second round. While he followed that up by dropping a decision to Ian Garry, Prates reminded us how dangerous he could be in the fifth round of that fight, as heavy strikes had Garry crawling to stay alive in the final minutes.
Neal has been a gritty competitor throughout his UFC career, mixing targets well and using his speed to land with deceptive force. While he has lost two of his last three bouts, one of those was a split decision against the aforementioned Garry, while the other was an impressive show of will against an undefeated prospect in Shavkat Rakhmonov.
Prates has all the tools to get back on the winning path here, including a reach advantage of three inches. We haven't seen too many fighters willingly close space against "The Nightmare," which will put Neal in danger of running into big shots as he attempts to close the distance. We have seen Prates use his knees well, which will leave Neal vulnerable if he chooses to hang around in the clinch.
Neal is historically a tough out, as none of his stoppage losses (3) have come earlier than the third round. This means Prates will need to deal with a competitor on the attack for the better part of 15 minutes. This will be a challenge Prates has yet to meet in the Octagon, as Garry is something of a negative fighter who focuses on winning exchanges instead of doing damage.
For all his dynamic offense, Prates can fall into the trap of looking for the perfect shot to finish the fight, which often results in offense that comes one strike at a time. Neal has been in the cage with some of the best in the world, and will put a pace on Prates that will make him have to respond rather than be the one swinging the hammer. It is worth seeing how the relative newcomer responds to these conditions at Neal's price.
UFC 319 Pick: Neal
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Middleweight
Michael Page (23-3-0) vs. Jared Cannonier (18-8-0)
DK Salaries: Page ($8,700), Cannonier ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Page (-180), Cannonier (+150)
For better or worse, Page is MMA's version of Floyd Maywhether: a fighter that will do just enough to win every round, and one who is dangerous enough to make opponents pay a serious penalty for trying to close the distance. All of his UFC bouts have followed this script, leading to "MVP" sporting a dismal 2.53 significant strikes landed per minute. On the flip side, his 1.78 significant strikes absorbed per minute is almost unheard of, particularly for a fighter who spends so much time in the cage.
Cannonier's boxing and power have made him a competitive middleweight, sandwiching wins over Marvin Vettori and Gregory Rodrigues with losses to Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho. His toughness and pressure will make him a handful for most fighters, especially those who are not consistent finishers.
Page seems a likely exception to this rule, as his awkward frame and four-inch height advantage will make it difficult for "The Killa Gorilla" to land meaningful offense. Cannonier has also never been much of a wrestler, so unless he plans to pepper Page with leg kicks, it could be a long, frustrating night. The saving grace for Jared could be his unrelenting will to move forward, as he could force Page to have to deal with his offense. However, this could easily lead to a knockout loss.
Going back to his days in Bellator, we have never seen anyone successfully impose their game on "MVP" throughout a fight. The three losses on his record exist via two sticky decisions and one titanic uppercut. Given this, it's difficult to see much of a path to victory for Cannonier, who generally wins fights by taking momentum away from his opponents.
Though I have Page winning a comfortable decision, it's difficult to endorse a play on DraftKings, as his two wins combined have netted 103 points. However, Cannonier's aggression may give Page opportunities that have been hard to come by in the Octagon
UFC 319 Pick: Page
Flyweight
Kai Asakura (21-5-0) vs. Tim Elliott (18-8-0)
DK Salaries: Asakura ($9,100), Elliott ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Asakura (-300), Elliott (+240)
Asakura may have been over his skis challenging for a title in his UFC debut. Still, the Japanese fighter is an exciting, powerful striker who creates big moments that lead to memorable finishes or comprehensive victories. The 31-year-old lived up to this reputation in his two fights before his loss to Alexandre Pantoja, finishing both opponents with knees to the body.
Elliott is the definition of a workman-like fighter. The 38-year-old will enter his 34th professional fight on Saturday with the intention of grinding Asakura down with wrestling. My read on the Rizin veteran hasn't changed from what I wrote prior to his fight with Pantoja. Namely, that he will struggle with wrestlers, as he no longer has ring ropes to split his legs between.
Asakura doesn't have 13 KO/TKOs on his resume by accident, and Elliott's awkward style can result in him getting hit hard, even though he has only been knocked out once in his long career. All that wear and tear will likely take a toll with each passing fight as the American's career draws to a close, which makes the threat of a knockout loom even larger.
Elliott will likely be at a strength disadvantage here, but he will be the more active fighter, giving him opportunities to score as long as he watches out for knees on the way into range. Asakura is similar to Prates in that he is a dynamic finisher, but those finishes usually come at the cost of letting his opponent jump out in front, which is why they sometimes occur in the later rounds.
Unlike Pico, Asakura is a fighter I think will struggle at the highest level. This takes into account the class of competition, as well as the adjustment to fighting in a cage after spending years in a ring. While the possibility of a knockout should push prospective owners to Asakura, Elliott's style fits too naturally not to give him a shot for the savings.
UFC 319 Pick: Elliott
Other Bouts
Lightweight
Carlos Diego Ferreira (19-6-0) vs. King Green (32-17-1)
DK Salaries: Ferreira ($8,400), Green ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Ferriera (-180), Green (+140)
UFC 319 Pick: Green
Middleweight
Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-9-0,1NC) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (37-19-0)
DK Salaries: Oleksiejczuk ($9,000), Meerschaert ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Oleksiejczuk (-220), Meerschaert (+180)
UFC 319 Pick: Oleksiejczuk
Women's Strawweight
Jessica Andrade (26-14-0) vs. Lupita Godinez (13-5-0)
DK Salaries: Andrade ($7,800), Godinez ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Andrade (+125), Godinez (-150)
UFC 319 PICK: Andrade
Lightweight
Chase Hooper (16-3-1) vs. Alexander Hernandez (16-8-0)
DK Salaries: Hooper ($9,300), Alexander ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Hooper (-330), Alexander (+260)
UFC 319 PICK: Hooper
Lightweight
Edson Barboza (24-12-0) vs. Drakkar Klose (15-3-1)
DK Salaries: Barboza ($8,300), Klose ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Barboza (-155), Klose (+130)
UFC 319 PICK: Barboza
Middleweight
Bryan Battle (13-2-0, 1 NC) vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (36-9-2, 2 NC)
DK Salaries: Battle ($8,600), Ruziboev ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Battle (-170), Ruziboev (+145)
UFC 319 PICK: Ruziboev
Women's Flyweight
Karine Silva (18-5-0) vs. Dione Barbosa (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Silva ($TBD), Barbosa ($TBD)
Vegas Odds: Silva (-230), Barbosa (+190)
UFC 319 PICK: Silva
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
