This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 289 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Diana Belbita (14-7-0) v. Maria Oliveira (13-6-0)
Diana Belbita - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
Maria Oliveira - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a close fight all the way until the final bell and could result in a split decision. Oliveira has the edge in power, but Belbita should have the edge everywhere else, particularly on the mat. The striking will be close, but any takedown/control time could tip the round in favor of Belbita.
UFC 289 Pick: Belbita
David Dvorak (20-5-0) v. Steve Erceg (9-1-0)
David Dvorak - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 20 wins
Steve Erceg - Height: 5'8" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Erceg is making his UFC debut, and although he has been impressive up until this point, he draws a significant step up in competition. Dvorak is on a two-fight losing streak but against some top guys in the division, and both went to a decision. This is a huge bounce-back spot for Dvorak, and he wins handily.
UFC 289 Pick: Dvorak
Blake Bilder (8-0-1) v. Kyle Nelson (13-5-1)
Kyle Nelson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
Blake Bilder - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Nelson is coming off of a draw, while Bilder is coming off an electric debut win. Bilder should have the edge everywhere in this fight and only needs to avoid putting himself in harm's way. I expect Bilder to get this fight to the mat, where he could rack up a healthy amount of control time.
UFC 289 Pick: Bilder
Aiemann Zahabi (9-2-0) v. Aori Qileng (24-9-0)
Aiemann Zahabi - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
Aori Qileng - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 9 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: I do not expect a high score for DFS to come out of this fight. While Qileng will push the tempo, Zahabi has been slowing fights down. Without a finish, this likely ends up as one of the lower-scoring fights and is not on my radar. I expect Qileng to be better everywhere and win a decision.
UFC 289 Pick: Qileng
Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-2-0) v. Miranda Maverick (11-4-0)
Miranda Maverick - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 65" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Jasmine Jasudavicius - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 3 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Maverick has only lost to top UFC fighters during her tenure with the program. Jasudavicius is 3-1 but against much lower competition. I expect Maverick to have her way and get this done on the scorecards.
UFC 289 Pick: Maverick
Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0) v. Chris Curtis (30-10-0)
Nassourdine Imavov - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Chris Curtis - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 30 wins
DFS Perspective: In a striking match, I would give Curtis the advantage in both power and volume. Imavov would have a significant edge on the mat, but Curtis has yet to be taken down in the UFC. I see Curtis winning this one by knockout.
UFC 289 Pick: Curtis
Eryk Anders (15-7-0) v. Marc-Andre Barriault (15-6-0)
Marc-Andre Barriault - Height: 61" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
Eryk Anders - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: If Anders cannot take this to the mat, I expect Barriault to win the striking exchanges on the feet. Barriault also has a little wrestling in his back pocket to avoid danger. Both guys have the power to end this early as well, but Barriault will throw more volume.
UFC 289 Pick: Barriault
Dan Ige (16-6-0) v. Nate Landwehr (17-4-0)
Dan Ige - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
Nate Landwehr - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: This comes off as a trap fight for Ige to me. He was on a three-fight slide until his most recent fight, albeit against excellent competition. Landwehr rides in on a three-fight win streak and has seemingly gotten better with each fight. I think if he avoids the power of Ige, he will win this fight.
UFC 289 Pick: Landwehr
Mike Malott (9-1-1) v. Adam Fugitt (9-3-0)
Mike Malott - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
Adam Fugitt - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: This has the potential for Fight of the Night and a bonus written all over it. Both guys are high-octane with solid cardio. Fugitt looked excellent in his most recent fight, but Malott has looked slightly better. That said, I would not be surprised to see either one of these guys pull this out, but my pick is with the favorite.
UFC 289 Pick: Malott
Charles Oliveira (33-9-0) v. Beneil Dariush (22-4-1)
Charles Oliveira - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 30 finishes in 33 wins
Beneil Dariush - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: Dariush has looked impressive on his run up to this point and will likely carry an edge on the feet, but more is needed to get past Oliveira. Oliveira's resume is much better, and I expect him to find another submission.
UFC 289 Pick: Oliveira
Amanda Nunes (22-5-0) v. Irene Aldana (14-6-0)
Amanda Nunes - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 22 wins
Irene Aldana - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Aldana became the replacement after an injury to Juliana Pena, and though the fight might be deserved, I do not see how she comes away with a win. Nunes will be leagues better everywhere the fight goes, particularly on the mat, where she will completely dominate. I do not expect this to see the judges' scorecards, and I fully expect Nunes to finish this early.
UFC 289 Pick: Nunes
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC 289 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
