This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 72 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Hailey Cowan (7-2-0) v. Jamey-Lyn Horth (5-0-0)
Hailey Cowan - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 7 wins
Jamey-Lyn Horth - Height: 5'7" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 Finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: Cowan will attempt to make her UFC debut for the third time in two months after her previous opponents withdrew at the last minute. She should be looking to wrestle early and often. Horth is also making her debut and looks to be the better overall fighter, and has more upside to finish the fight early. I expect her to push the tempo, out-strike Cowan on the feet and eventually work this to the mat for ground-and-pound.
UFC Vegas 72 Pick: Horth
Stephanie Egger (8-3-0) v. Irina Alekseeva (4-1-0)
Stephanie Egger - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Irina Alekseeva - Height: 5'8" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 4 wins
DFS Perspective: Alekseeva will make her UFC debut and jump into a fight where she has the edge on the feet but likely nowhere else. Egger is already making her sixth UFC fight and knows she will have a significant advantage on the mat. I expect her to push for takedowns early and eventually find an early submission.
UFC Vegas 72 Pick: Egger
Cody Durden (14-4-1) v. Charles Johnson (13-4-0)
Cody Durden - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
Charles Johnson - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Durden will have a chance in this fight if he is able to take this down to the mat. However, Johnson has elite takedown defense, and I expect him to keep this on the feet and win a close decision or potentially record an early knockout.
UFC Vegas 72 Pick: Johnson
Martin Buday (11-1-0) v. Jake Collier (13-8-0)
Martin Buday - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
Jake Collier - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Collier will have the edge in volume and wrestling if he can manage a takedown. Buday is the more technically sound striker and has much more power. I expect a decision to be close, with Buday edging out the win with damage. I would not be surprised if he knocked out Collier in the early going.
UFC Vegas 72 Pick: Buday
Josh Quinlan (6-0-0) v. Trey Waters (7-1-0)
Josh Quinlan - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
Trey Waters - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Waters has a massive size and reach advantage, but that should be it. He had a solid performance on the Contender Series that ended in a loss but showed off plenty of skill. Unfortunately for him, I expect Quinlan to be better everywhere. Once he solves the issue of the size discrepancy, he should smash Waters.
UFC Vegas 72 Pick: Quinlan
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (20-8-1) v. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (9-0-0)
Marcos Rogerio de Lima - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 20 wins
Waldo Cortes-Acosta - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Cortes-Acosta has a high upside with his volume and power, but his game is one-dimensional. De Lima can match all but the volume and also has an excellent ground game. If he gets the takedown, he should crush value. However, if he chooses to stand and strike, one of the two is getting knocked out. I expect a solid score to come out of this fight.
UFC Vegas 72 Pick: Rogerio De Lima
Julian Erosa (28-10-0) v. Fernando Padilla (14-4-0)
Julian Erosa - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 23 finishes in 28 wins
Fernando Padilla - Height: 6'1" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Padilla is another fighter making his debut and has a solid all-around game. He also has good experience, but they are giving him a dog for his first fight. Erosa is also solid everywhere and has fought much better competition. I expect him to win, but this fight could be close if Padilla gets ground control first. A solid DFS score should come out of this fight either way.
UFC Vegas 72 Pick: Erosa
Rodolfo Vieira (8-2-0) v. Cody Brundage (8-3-0)
Rodolfo Vieira - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 8 wins
Cody Brundage - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Brundage has the power to end this at any time, but Vieira has shown a rock-solid chin. I expect Vieira to refrain from toying with fire and to get this to the mat as quickly as possible. From there, he should be able to grapple his way to an early submission.
UFC Vegas 72 Pick: Vieira
Caio Borralho (13-1-0) v. Michal Oleksiejczuk (18-5-0)
Caio Borralho - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 13 wins
Michal Oleksiejczuk - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: For as impressive as Borralho has been in his short UFC career, they are entirely disrespecting Oleksiejczuk. Borralho has solid striking, power, and a scrappy wrestling game. Oleksiejczuk is a sniper with sneaky power when he lands flush. However, his takedown defense has been a glaring weakness, and it is likely how Borralho wins this fight. However, the odds are too far off, and I expect Oleksiejczuk to snipe his way to a finish.
UFC Vegas 72 Pick: Oleksiejczuk
Yadong Song (19-7-1) v. Ricky Simon (20-3-0)
Yadong Song - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
Ricky Simon - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight should be an absolute banger between two veterans of the sport. It is a clash of styles, with Song holding the edge on the feet and Simon having an advantage on the mat. This will be another step up for Simon; I think he is ready for it. I expect him to push a ridiculous pace and keep Song controlled for as long as the fight lasts.
UFC Vegas 72 Pick: Simon
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 72 DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
