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UFC Atlanta DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Atlanta: Usman vs. Buckley. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight
Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) v. Joaquin Buckley (21-6-0)
DK Salaries: Usman ($7,200), Buckley ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Usman (+210), Buckley (-260)
To say it's been a rough run of late for Usman would be a massive understatement. Now 38 years old, the former UFC Welterweight Champion has lost three in a row (Leon Edwards x2, Khamzat Chimaev) and is without a victory dating back to November 2021. Usman hasn't fought at all since October 2023, so he's looking at an extended period on the sidelines, and that alone combined with his age is a major concern. Usman took the Chimaev fight at middleweight and all things considered, looked pretty good. He should definitely be fighting at 170 pounds moving forward, however.
Buckley is hands down one of the hottest fighters in the entire company and more than deserving of this opportunity. He struggled with consistency earlier in his UFC run, going 3-3 in a six-fight stretch from January 2021 to December 2022, but it's been wheels up since. Buckley has won six fights in a row including four via knockout. Included in that stretch are victories over Colby Covington, Stephen Thompson, Nursulton Ruziboev and Vicente Luque. He's a legitimate contender.
The thing that interests me most in this fight is seeing how Usman's grappling game translates back to the lighter weight class. He gave up four takedowns to Chimaev, but he's one of the most explosive wrestlers in the sport. At welterweight, he has never been taken down. Working in Kamaru's favor is the fact he's one of the few guys on the roster with the ability to match the brute strength Buckley brings to the table. Picking up a handful of takedowns would go a long way in potentially securing a five-round decision. Averaging 2.82 takedowns per 15 minutes, Usman is plenty capable in that area as long as his athleticism hasn't waned during his time away.
That said, the greatest difference-maker in this fight is Buckley's power. He looked awful the entirety of the Wonderboy fight before destroying Thompson with one shot which put him away in an instant.
In Usman's last three five-round fights which went the distance, he absorbed 120, 55, and 107 significant strikes. The middle number is fine, the other two are not. Simply put, Kamaru can't be absorbing anywhere near 100 significant strikes and hope to live to tell about it. His striking defense is paramount if he hopes to emerge victorious.
I settled on Usman, but certainly don't feel great about it.
I'm hoping the time away allowed his body to heal some. The advanced age is a concern, as is Buckley's ridiculous explosiveness and power.
I can absolutely see Kamaru getting finished quickly and not being the least bit competitive, but I can also see him making Buckley work, tiring him out, and taking over late.
Given the price tag and potential payoff, I'll take the latter and cross my fingers.
THE PICK: Usman
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Co-Main Event - Women's Flyweight
Rose Namajunas (14-7-0) v. Miranda Maverick (17-5-0)
DK Salaries: Namajunas ($9,100), Maverick ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Namajunas (-260), Maverick (+210)
A former two-time UFC Women's Strawweight Champion, Namajunas moved up to flyweight in September 2023 to mixed results. She's seen the final bell in each of her four fights at 125 pounds, defeating Tracy Cortez and Amanda Ribas while losing to Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot. The obvious concern is that the two latter names are considerably better than the former, and that's the level of competition Rose is struggling against. She'll be 33 years of age a couple weeks after this event takes place, but in a smaller weight class, she should have some gas left in the tank.
Maverick has won four straight and six of seven, but she doesn't have a single impressive victory during that stretch. The wins are over the likes of Jamey-Lyn Horth, Dione Barbosa and Andrea Lee. Her lone quality UFC victory is over Gillian Robertson, and that came back in March 2021 before Robertson found her way. Maverick's three losses with the company have come against Jasmine Jasudavicius, Maycee Barber and Blanchfield (in other words, her three best opponents to date). She would be breaking the mold if she is able to get by Rose.
Maverick has landed at least two takedowns in three straight fights and is averaging 2.39 landed per 15 minutes. She's a good, not great, wrestler. Luckily for Miranda, that plays into what is arguably Rose's greatest weakness. She's given up at least two takedowns in three straight fights, and the lone 125-pound fight in which she remained upright, Fiorot only attempted one shot. Rose is active off of her back and doesn't settle for disadvantageous positions, but that first shot coming her way is a concern.
That said, Rose should have the advantage most everywhere else.
Namajunas' striking was a major concern earlier in her career, but she's cleaned that up considerably. She still doesn't have much power, but she moves well, throws combinations, and gets out of dodge before her opponent can return fire.
I don't see Maverick submitting Rose and Miranda has just one knockout win in her career, so any Maverick win is likely coming via decision.
The price tag on Namajunas doesn't feel great because most of these female fights tend to be pretty competitive, but Maverick isn't much of a technical wrestler. She's just strong and aggressive. I think Rose can stay upright for the most apart and do enough good work on the feet to win a decision.
THE PICK: Namajunas
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Middleweight
Edmen Shahbazyan (14-5-0) v. Andre Petroski (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: Shahbazyan ($8,800), Petroski ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Shahbazyan (-185), Petroski (+155)
Shahbazyan looked like a future title challenger after bursting on the scene in March 2019 with three straight stoppage wins to begin his UFC run, but it's pretty much been all downhill of late. He lost three straight from August 2020 to November 2021 and has alternated wins and losses in five fights since. All the wins of have come via knockout, but they've also come against three of the weakest middleweights (Dylan Budka, AJ Dobson, Dalcha Lungiambula) to grace the UFC roster in recent memory.
Petroski was knocked out by Michel Pereira and Jacob Malkoun in back-to-back fights in late 2023 and early 2024, but has since responded with three straights wins of his own. Again, the competition level (Budka, Josh Fremd) hasn't been great, but Petroski's most recent win over Rodolfo Vieira in February was a quality victory.
Both of these guys have massive durability issues. Both have been knocked out three times in their respective careers, and I don't trust either to make it through 15 minutes here. For those looking for a betting angle, I think the under total rounds is a much more attractive propositions than any particular side.
Shahbazyan's problem is he can't win anything other than a brawl. He knows no other way to fight. He forces his way into the pocket, starts winging bombs, and hopes his opponent hits the canvas before he does. It will lead to plenty of highlight reel knockouts and plenty of ugly defeats, which we have seen. What it also leads to is the complete inability to consistently wins fights against better competition.
Petroski is the more accomplished wrestler. He would be wise to simply not play Edmen's games on the feet and try to drag him to the mat. He's landed three-plus takedowns on five different occasions over the course of his UFC run. Shahbazyan has just one career win via submission and is sporting a medicore 65 percent takedown defense. Throw a few strikes, spam attempts and limit the dangerous blows coming his way.
I have this lined as an even-money fight.
Both of these guys are untrustworthy, but Shahbazyan even more so. I'm not backing him as a hefty favorite against anyone halfway decent, and although Petroski is by no means a title challenger, I can see him racking up ground control time, or clipping Edmen in a wild brawl.
THE PICK: Petroski
Welterweight
Michael Chiesa (20-7-0) v. Court McGee (23-13-0)
DK Salaries: Chiesa ($9,200), McGee ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Chiesa (-360), McGee (+285)
This is a battle of two guys that were on the chopping block not all that long ago. Neither, McGee in particular, can feel all that safe about their standing within the company moving forward.
Court turned 40 years of age last December. He dropped three in a row to Jeremiah Wells (KO), Matt Brown (KO) and Alex Morono (unanimous decision) from June 2022 to April 2024 before scoring a first-round submission win over Tim Means in October. I'm working on the assumption McGee, a member of the UFC roster since June 2010, would have been gone if he lost the Means fight, and I could see the same thing happening here if he's not competitive against Chiesa.
Chiesa himself was in dire straits, losing three in a row from August 2021 to July 2023, with the main difference being his three setbacks came against quality competition in Kevin Holland, Sean Brady and Vicente Luque. The UFC did Chiesa a massive favor last August, booking him against Tony Ferguson. Everyone beats Ferguson these days, and Mike was no exception, winning via first-round submission. He followed that up with another submission win over Max Griffin in December. I definitely think Chiesa has more left in the tank than Griffin, but that doesn't mean the company can blatantly regard the level of competition it matches him up against moving forward.
Chiesa is entirely reliant on his grappling game for success, and it's been that way his entire career. He doesn't have a single knockout win in 25 professional fights, which is one of my favorite MMA statistics ever. Chiesa didn't have to worry about any offense coming his way from Ferguson, and he fought Griffin to fairly even terms on the feet, so it's not as if his chin has been tested all that much of late.
McGee is also grappling-heavy at this stage of his career, having landed exactly one takedown in each of his past three fights. His explosiveness is all but gone, however, so expecting him to effectively employ the grinding style we saw throughout the earlier portion of his run is a big ask.
I don't even want to think about what would happen in prolonged striking exchanges between the two. By default, McGee has more power. Chiesa is more athletic and a couple inches taller.
The fact Chiesa is such a big favorite and so expensively-priced is a direct reflection on McGee as opposed to anything Mike has done of late. I get it, and I think he wins, but it feels risky, especially when you take into account I can very easily see this being a boring decision in which neither man lands a ton of damaging offense.
THE PICK: Chiesa
Other Bouts
Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt (14-6-0) v. Raoni Barcelos (19-5-0)
DK Salaries: Garbrandt ($7,700), Barcelos ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Garbrandt (+150), Barcelos (-180)
THE PICK: Barcelos
Middleweight
Mansur Abdul-Malik (8-0-0) v. Cody Brundage (11-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Abdul-Malik ($9,600), Brundage ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Abdul-Malik (-800), Brundage (+500)
THE PICK: Abdul-Malik
Light Heavyweight
Alonzo Menifield (16-5-1) v. Oumar Sy (11-0-0)
DK Salaries: Menifield ($6,700), Sy ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Menifield (+440), Sy (-600)
THE PICK: Sy
Light Heavyweight
Paul Craig (17-9-1) v. Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1)
DK Salaries: Craig ($6,900), Bellato ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Craig (+295), Bellato (-375)
THE PICK: Bellato
Bantamweight
Malcolm Wellmaker (9-0-0) v. Kris Moutinho (14-6-0)
DK Salaries: Wellmaker ($9,800), Moutinho ($6,400)
Vegas Odds: Wellmaker (-1450), Moutinho (+850)
THE PICK: Wellmaker
Flyweight
Cody Durden (17-7-1) v. Jose Ochoa (7-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Durden ($7,600), Ochoa ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Durden (+150), Ochoa (-180)
THE PICK: Durden
Welterweight
Phil Rowe (10-5-0) v. Ange Loosa (10-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Rowe ($7,800), Loosa ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Rowe (+125), Loosa (-150)
THE PICK: Rowe
Women's Flyweight
Jamey-Lyn Horth (7-2-0) v. Vanessa Demopoulos (11-7-0)
DK Salaries: Horth ($9,400), Demopoulos ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Horth (-520), Demopoulos (+390)
THE PICK: Horth
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for [EVENT NAME] with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
