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Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Atlanta
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Atlanta card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 161-66-1 ~ Dog Picks 26-19-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Cody Durden +160
Bet of the Week Record: 10-8-1 +485
DFS Lock of the Week: Ricky Simon - 15-2
Fanduel Captain: Simon/Bellato
Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) v. Joaquin Buckley (21-6-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 20 wins (9 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 10 decisions)
- Elite pressure wrestler with tight top control and stout defense
- Coming off a long layoff, says he's refreshed and back to "enjoy it before it's gone"
Joaquin Buckley (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 21 wins (15 KO/TKO, 0 submissions, 6 decisions)
- High-level knockout artist, known for highlight-reel finishes
- On a six-fight UFC welterweight win streak
DFS Perspective: Usman's wrestling is always a factor, but at this stage of his career, I'm not convinced the motor is still there for five hard rounds of control. Buckley's takedown defense has improved fight over fight, and if he keeps this upright, he'll be the one landing the heavier shots. Over five rounds, that adds up.
UFC Atlanta Pick: Buckley
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Rose Namajunas (13-7-0) v. Miranda Maverick (15-5-0)
Rose Namajunas (Mid-range GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15 wins (2 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Technical striker with crisp footwork, sharp jabs, and dynamic high kicks
- Veteran fighter who blends striking with sneaky grappling transitions
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (1 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Well-rounded grappler with strong takedowns and submission skills on the mat
- Undefeated inside-the-distance—dangerous if she dictates positioning
DFS Perspective: This is a big step up for Maverick. I expect her to find moments, especially on the ground, but Rose's experience and technical striking should be the difference-maker. Namajunas has seen it all, knows how to control pace and can neutralize grapplers when needed. Maverick's tough, but I think Rose proves to be too much in this one.
UFC Atlanta Pick: Namajunas
Edmen Shahbazyan (14-5-0) v. Andre Petroski (13-3-0)
Edmen Shahbazyan (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (12 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 1 decision)
- Heavy-handed striker with a high finish rate (86% of wins by KO/TKO)
- Flashy knockout artist with a solid ground game
Andre Petroski (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 13 wins (4 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Collegiate-level wrestler with solid grappling and a brown belt in BJJ
- Durable, well-rounded finisher—six of his wins came by finish in the UFC
DFS Perspective: I'm leaning with Shahbazyan here. He's got wildfire hands and takedown defense that continues to improve. Petroski's grappling is legit, but Shahbazyan's power and finishing instincts may turn this into a striking mismatch. If Edmen lands early, it could be lights-out. If not, Petroski could drag it into grappling range and grind
UFC Atlanta Pick: Shahbazyan
Cody Garbrandt (14-6-0) v. Raoni Barcelos (19-5-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (11 KO/TKO, 3 decisions)
- Natural striker with fast hands and explosive power, sold with Division II wrestling background
- Tempered by ups and downs—can open strong or fizzle under pressure
Raoni Barcelos (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19 wins (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Well-rounded with elite wrestling and BJJ black belt pedigree
- Effective mix of submissions, takedowns, and striking—not just a one-trick threat
DFS Perspective: I'm siding with Barcelos here. Garbrandt is always live for an early KO, but Barcelos is the more complete fighter with better durability and a far deeper bag. If he can weather the early speed and power, this should start tilting heavily in his favor. Expect him to mix in wrestling, break Garbrandt's rhythm, and take over as the fight goes on.
UFC Atlanta Pick: Barcelos
Cody Brundage (11-6-0) v. Mansur Abdul-Malik (8-0-0)
- Height: 6′0″ – Reach: 72″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (6 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 1 decision)
- Collegiate wrestling background; durable with solid grappling chops
- Inconsistent finishes
Mansur Abdul‑Malik (High-end GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 6′2″ – Reach: 79″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8–0, all wins by finish (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Heavy-handed striker with UFC KO of the night, but got dropped early in his UFC debut
- Long, powerful boxer with confidence to keep it standing and load up on shots
DFS Perspective: Brundage is durable and has some wrestling, but he's outgunned in this spot. Abdul-Malik has the size, length and striking to make this look one-sided. Brundage has been finished before, and if he can't get this down early, he's going to be a sitting target. I expect Abdul-Malik to keep it standing, pick him apart and eventually put him away.
UFC Atlanta Pick: Abdul-Malik
Alonzo Menfield (16-5-1) v. Oumar Sy (11-3-0)
- Height: 6′0″ – Reach: 76″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (9 KO/TKO, 4 submission, 3 decisions)
- Explosive striker with big early fight power
- Durable but can struggle opening up when opponents back him up
Oumar Sy (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 6′4″ – Reach: 83″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (4 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Tall, rangy light heavyweight with elite grappling transitions and finishing instincts
- UFC 2–0 with a submission and a decision win, extremely polished all-around
DFS Perspective: This one's clearly Sy's to lose. Menifield brings early power, but he'll be outmatched by Sy's frame, skill set and composure. Sy's range makes him tough to touch, and his grappling polish means there's a real path to control or finish anywhere. I'd expect Sy to pick his spots, mix strikes with a takedown or two and dominate rounds.
UFC Atlanta Pick: Sy
Paul Craig (17-9-1) v. Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1)
Paul Craig (GPP Dart Throw)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (4 KO/TKO, 13 submissions)
- Trains at Higher Level Martial Arts
- Former BAMMA Light Heavyweight Champion
Rodolfo Bellato (High-end GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 1 decision)
- Trains at KO Squad MMA
- Known for explosive striking and finishing ability
DFS Perspective: Bellato's aggressive striking and finishing ability make him a strong GPP play. Craig is dangerous on the ground, but Bellato's power and reach advantage could be the difference if he keeps the fight standing. If Craig can't get it to the mat early, Bellato's pressure might overwhelm him. I favor Bellato's upside in this spot.
UFC Atlanta Pick: Bellato
Michael Chiesa (18-7-0) v. Court McGee (22-13-0)
Michael Chiesa (High-end GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 6′1″ – Reach: 75″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 18 wins (12 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Elite wrestling base with strong positional control and few strikes absorbed per minute
- Recently secured a rear-naked choke finish over Max Griffin, marking his seventh RNC in the UFC
- Height: 5′11″ – Reach: 75″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23 wins (3 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 11 decisions)
- Durable grinder with a TUF background, known for high fight IQ and volume striking
- Mixed recent results: a TKO loss to Tim Means, but bounced back with a neck-crank finish on Tim Means
DFS Perspective: I'm backing Chiesa heavily here. He's got the wrestling, submissions and elite control. McGee's a veteran with a big heart, but Chiesa is a cut above in takedowns and grinding. Expect Mike to stuff takedowns, dominate ground position and find himself creeping toward late finishes.
UFC Atlanta Pick: Chiesa
Malcolm Wellmaker (9-0-0) v. Kris Moutinho (14-6-0)
Malcolm Wellmaker (Mid-range GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 5′10″ – Reach: 71″ – Stance: Switch
- Record: 9 wins (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Undefeated prospect who made waves with a sub‑2‑minute knockout in his UFC debut
- Well-rounded—mixes power with scrambles, looking to prove he's more than a one‑and‑done puncher
- Height: 5′7″ – Reach: 68″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14 wins (6 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Fan favorite with granite chin; scrappy, aggressive style keeps fans invested
- Returning on short notice, riding five straight finishes on the regional circuit
DFS Perspective: Moutinho's as tough as they come, but he's stepping in on short notice and facing a guy with real power and momentum. Wellmaker's sharp, composed and doesn't waste shots. If he keeps this clean and doesn't brawl for the crowd, he should piece Moutinho up and either get him out of there or dominate wire to wire.
UFC Atlanta Pick: Wellmaker
Cody Durden (17-7-1) v. Jose Ochoa (7-1-0)
- Height: 5′7″ – Reach: 67″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17 wins (6 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Natural wrestler-turned-striker with solid grappling and positional control
- Durable, high-volume fighter who stays busy through all three rounds
- Height: 5′7″ – Reach: 67″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 7 wins (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Heavy-handed finisher on early pressure; 4 first-round KOs in his career
- UFC debut ended in a decision loss
DFS Perspective: I'm backing Durden as the dog. Ochoa has real power, but Durden's wrestling and control give him the edge in the areas that matter most. If Cody can chain takedowns and snowball into control time, he'll rack up points and slow down the power puncher. Ochoa needs a fast KO, but Durden's durability should limit that
UFC Atlanta Pick: Durden
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Ricky Simon (21-6-0) v. Cameron Smotherman (12-5-0)
- Height: 5′6″ – Reach: 69″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21 wins (7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 10 decisions)
- Talented striker with real finishing ability, but also solid wrestling chops
- Active pace, tries to overwhelm opponents from bell to bell
- Height: 5′9″ – Reach: 69″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 5 decisions)
- Young striker with upside, decent finishing rate on regional circuit
- UFC record sits at 1–1; showed power and enterprising striking
DFS Perspective: Smotherman can bang, but he hasn't faced someone with this kind of pace and level of execution. Simon's experience and ability to blend wrestling with heavy output should be too much. As long as he keeps pushing forward and mixing in takedowns, he's got a clear path to a decision or late finish.
UFC Atlanta Pick: Simon
Phil Rowe (10-5-0) v. Ange Loosa (10-4-0)
- Height: 6′3″ – Reach: 80″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Heavy-hitting striker with a solid submission game to complement his power
- Leads with volume and keeps the pace high, though he can hang back on low-output rounds
- Height: 5′10″ – Reach: 74″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 4 decisions)
- Scrappy, well-rounded fighter with solid regional credentials
- Strong cardio and technical approach, but lacks a standout weapon in any phase
DFS Perspective: Rowe has the reach and finishing ability, but he can be too inactive and fades under consistent pressure. Loosa has the work rate, durability and fight IQ to make this ugly and win minutes. As long as he stays smart defensively early, he should take over late with volume and cage control. He's a solid underdog DFS option with potential to outwork and outlast Rowe on the cards.
UFC Atlanta Pick: Loosa
Vanessa Demopoulos (11-7-0) v. Jamey-Lyn Horth (7-2-0)
- Height: 5′2″ – Reach: 59″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (1 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Natural bantamweight stepping in on short notice up a weight class
- Has dropped two straight and struggles to impose rhythm against bigger, faster fighters
- Height: 5′7″ – Reach: 66″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7 wins (3 KOs, 2 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Bigger, rangier, and with a legit striking pedigree in kickboxing
- UFC-tested—able to outpoint opponents, handles adversity well
DFS Perspective: I have no faith in Demopoulos here. She's small for the division, took this on short notice and is riding a skid. Horth is bigger and knows how to control pace with her striking and reach. I expect Horth to win all three rounds, mixing jabs and distance kicks to keep Demopoulos uncomfortable. Getting exposure to her is a safe DFS angle with a high floor and solid decision upside.
UFC Atlanta Pick: Horth
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
