This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC returns to Houston, Texas for UFC 271, which goes down Saturday, February 12. In the main event, middleweight champion Israel Adesanya looks to defend his belt against Robert Whittaker.
In this series of articles, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop and a three-fighter parlay I like. All lines are taken from DraftKings online sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Andrei Arlovski (32-20) vs. Jared Vanderaa (12-6)
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski is usually a fighter I don't like to back given his age, but he has been proving me wrong, and I actually really like this style matchup for him.
Arlovski has shown off a better chin in his last couple of fights, and he uses his jab and striking to out-volume his opponents and win close decisions. I do expect this fight to be a close one, as most Arlovski fights are, but he's the better striker and should be able to defeat Vanderaa.
The former heavyweight champ averages 3.7 significant strikes per minute and only absorbs 3.03. Vanderaa, meanwhile, is there to be hit, as he absorbs 5.24. Furthermore, his takedown defense is suspect, as it's just 20 percent. Although Arlovski isn't the best wrestler, he has the skills to take this fight to the mat if needed to secure the rounds and win the fight. To me, Arlovski should be about a -200 favorite.
The Play: Andrei Arlovski (-145)
Alexander Hernandez (13-4) vs. Renato Moicano (15-4-1)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez has had a very up-and-down UFC career, but I like him as the underdog to defeat Renato Moicano. The knock on the Brazilian is his chin, as he's just 2-3 in his last five and all three losses were by knockout.
Even at lightweight, the durability is not there for Moicano. Moicano will look to take Hernandez down and use jiu-jitsu to control the fight, but Hernandez does have 62 percent takedown defense, so he will be able to stuff some. Eventually, he will find Moicano's chin to get the finish.
Hernandez has five UFC wins and three are by KO, including knocking out Beneil Dariush in 42 seconds, which is super impressive. I trust he will let his hands go and find the finish.
The Play: Alexander Hernandez (+140)
Jared Cannonier (14-5) vs. Derek Brunson (23-7)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Jared Cannonier vs. Derek Brunson is a crucial fight for the middleweight division. I'm expecting Cannonier to not only win, but to get the knockout.
Although Brunson is on an impressive win streak, the level of competition has not been the best, as the highest-ranked win is Darren Till. He also fought Kevin Holland and Edmen Shahbazyan, who have massive holes in their takedown defense. Even in those fights, and in the Till fight, he got clipped and hurt.
Cannonier is one of the hardest hitters at middleweight and has a 62 percent takedown defense, so I expect him to be able to stuff some shots and force Brunson to stand with him. I do think Brunson will get him down at some points, but just like the Jack Hermansson fight for Cannonier, he's hard to hold down and will eventually land the KO punch.
The Play: Jared Cannonier by KO/TKO (+120)
Ronnie Lawrence (7-1) vs. Mana Martinez (9-2) &
Carlos Ulberg (3-1) vs. Fabio Cherant (7-3)
Weight Class: Bantamweight & Light heavyweight
For my parlay, I'm taking Ronnie Lawrence and Carlos Ulberg to get their hands raised on Saturday night.
Lawrence is a takedown machine, as in his one UFC fight and Contender Series fight, he had over 20 takedowns combined and has a 76 percent accuracy on getting them. Martinez, meanwhile, struggled in his debut, as he barely edged out Guido Cannetti. There's no question Martinez is the better striker, but Lawrence has solid striking defense. He will get inside and take Martinez down over and over again to either get a dominant decision or a stoppage.
On my other leg, Ulberg gets a very favorable matchup against Cherant. Ulberg is a teammate and main training partner of Israel Adesanya, and after losing his debut, he faces Cherant, who's 0-2 in the UFC and got submitted by Alonzo Menifield and KO'd by William Knight. His chin is suspect and Ulberg is a phenomenal kickboxer that will just piece up Cherant and likely get a first-round KO.
The Play: Lawrence and Ulberg (-115)
