Top Picks and Predictions for UFC 320: Ankalaev vs Pereira 2
UFC 320 comes stacked with 14 fights, including two title bouts that will have fans glued to their seats. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, including a former light heavyweight title challenger, and an underdog looking to keep momentum after a shaky start to his UFC career. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Austin Vanderford ($9,200)
Ramiz Brahimaj has been dominated by committed wrestlers in the past, surrendering a combined 10 takedowns against Themba Gorimbo and Court McGee. Vanderford's striking may need work, but he will be on the pressure from the opening bell and should produce a big score by grounding his opponent multiple times over 15 minutes.
Patchy Mix ($9,000)
Mix may seem difficult to trust after a baffling performance against Mario Bautista in his UFC debut, but I'm willing to give "No Love" a bit of a pass. Jakub Wiklacz is a perfect opponent to get Mix back on track, as he stands straight up in the pocket and brawls without a care for defense. This should open the door for Mix to hit reactive takedowns or utilize his two-inch height advantage in the pocket.
Merab Dvalishvili ($9,300)
There is no doubt that Cory Sandhagen has improved his scrambling and submission game. Given his size, this could be a meaningful reason to take a shot on the massive dog. Otherwise, this feels like a no-brainer pick for the bantamweight champion, who averages over 119 DraftKings points in 15 UFC fights. While Sandhagen's improvements are real, he still holds just a 63 percent takedown defense rate, which means he will likely hit the canvas often.
Magomed Ankalaev ($8,900)
Ankalaev failed on all 12 of his takedown attempts in their first meeting, but it seems that the wrestling threat was able to freeze Alex Pereira in position, as the Dagestani fighter soundly outstruck him in his title-winning performance. I believe "Poatan" will give up takedowns more easily this time around, as he will be forced to focus more on getting his own offense going.
Abus Magomedov ($7,500)
Magomedov gets a bit of a bad rap due to some early issues with cardio, but Abus's wrestling and gas tank have looked good during his three-fight win streak, as he has notched a total of 11 takedowns over that span. Meanwhile, Joe Pyfer has defended just 60 percent of the takedown attempts he has faced in the Octagon, and he has never had to deal with a committed attack over three rounds. Pyfer hits hard enough to find a finish here, though it's worth noting that Magomedov has only been knocked out twice in 34 professional fights.
Farid Basharat ($9,500)
Basharat should be able to take the fight wherever he wants it against Chris Gutierrez, a slow-paced kickboxer, who tends to let his opponent control the range. "El Guapo" has a respectable 70 percent takedown defense rate but has been taken down twice in each of his last three fights. This suggests that Basharat's suffocating style will pay dividends.
Daniel Santos ($8,300)
Santos should be able to win this one on work rate alone, as Joo Sang Yoo stands upright and throws everything he has into every shot. We have seen "Willycat" take tremendous punishment and barely flinch, so I am comfortable with the idea that he may need to eat some hard punches on the way into the pocket.
Yana Santos ($7,600)
Ketlen Vieira showed us that Macy Chiasson doesn't have much to offer if you can shut down her wrestling. While Santos has been taken down in fights, she has faced strong grapplers throughout her career and should be well-equipped to deal with a fighter looking to bully her with strength. Santos has always been a serviceable kickboxer, so she could potentially run away with this one if she can keep things standing and mix in her own wrestling.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Brogan Walker UNDER 27.5 Significant Strikes, Ateba Gautier OVER 17.5 Significant Strikes, and Josh Emmett OVER 38.5 Significant Strikes
Walker has been taken down a whopping eight times in her two UFC fights, which seems to indicate a clear path to victory for Veronica Hardy. Add in the fact that Walker does her best work from top position, and we get a fight that is likely to be decided on the ground. This should limit the number of strikes thrown in either direction
Gautier has pulverized opponents during his short stay in the UFC, but we have seen him approach fights deliberately early on. The sudden change to Treston Vines on just a few days' notice may cause the Silent Assassin to have a bit more of a feeling-out process against an athletic fighter who can keep range.
Emmett is notoriously tough to put away, having only been stopped twice in 24 professional fights. Given that Emmett is the more credentialed wrestler here, it stands to reason that Youssef Zalal will decide to operate behind his four-inch height advantage. Emmett may ultimately get picked apart, but he should land enough strikes to exceed this total.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Khalil Rountree Wins via KO/TKO (+360)
Rountree will test the newfound head movement of Jiri Prochazka, as he is athletic, knows how to set traps, and may be the hardest hitter in this division. Even in his most dominant performances, Prochazka takes time to build into the fight, and I don't think he will have time to implement his game before Rountree finds a fight-ending shot.
Punahele Soriano Wins via KO/TKO (+140)
Soriano can wrestle when the situation calls for it but prefers to throw bombs at range until his opponent falls. Nikolay Veretennikov is big for the weight class but doesn't move his head off the center line. This should make an easy target for Soriano, who may look to wear his opponent down before moving in for the kill.
Edmen Shahbazyan Wins via KO/TKO (-157)
While he still has his problems, Shahbazyan no longer loses to grapplers indiscriminately, as we saw in his victories over Dylan Budka and Andre Petroski. Andre Muniz carries a takedown accuracy rate under 50 percent and has been knocked out in two of his last three fights. This likely means a lot of panic wrestling from the Brazilian until Shahbazyan finds space to land shots.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC 320 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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