This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads across the pond to London, England on Saturday, July 22 for UFC London. The main event sees Tom Aspinall make his return from injury against Marcin Tybura at heavyweight.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Flyweight
Jafel Filho (14-3) vs. Daniel Barez (16-5)
Opening up the card is a flyweight bout, and I like Jafel Filho to get the win over Daniel Barez as the short favorite. Filho was very impressive in his UFC debut despite losing to Muhammad Mokaev by submission late in the fight, as he was arguably winning up until that point. Filho had success with his grappling and nearly forced Mokaev to tap due to a nasty kneebar.
Barez, meanwhile, will be making his UFC debut after winning four straight fights following a loss to Carlos Hernandez on the Contender Series. Barez's striking defense is a concern, as he is there to be hit, while both Filho and Barez like to wrestle and grapple, which adds some intrigue to this fight.
On the feet, I think Filho is the better striker and will be able to land some quality shots. If Filho is on his back, it could be a concern, but he showed off impressive scrambles against Mokaev, which is why I expect him to get out of danger and edge out a decision.
UFC London Best Bet: Jafel Filho (-125)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Jai Herbert (12-4-1) vs. Fares Ziam (13-4)
For my underdog, I'm backing Jai Herbert, as I am surprised he is the underdog. Frankly, I have yet to be sold on Ziam.
Although Herbert is 1-1-1 in his last three, his draw should've been a win, as I thought he won despite losing a point. Furthermore, his loss came by KO to Ilia Topuria, who will likely be fighting for the featherweight title sooner rather than later. In that fight, Herbert dropped Topuria and nearly finished him.
Ziam, meanwhile, is 3-2 in the UFC but has shown he struggles on the ground, as Terrance McKinney was able to quickly submit him. Although Herbert isn't known for his grappling and wrestling, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him take it there.
I expect this fight to play out primarily on the feet. To me, Herbert is the better striker with more power. This is a coin flip type of fight, so to get plus-money on Herbert -- who also has the grappling edge -- makes this a play for me.
UFC London Best Bet: Jai Herbert (+135)
Weight Class: Women's flyweight
Molly McCann (13-5) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (10-7-1)
For some reason, Julija Stoliarenko is moving down to flyweight after fainting on the scales when she tried to make 135lbs. I think there is a good chance this fight doesn't happen, as Stoliarenko might miss weight.
But, if it does happen, I really like Molly McCann to get a stoppage win here, as Stoliarenko will be depleted from the weight cut and already hasn't been the most durable fighter.
Stoliarenko is 1-5 in the UFC and is coming off a first-round TKO loss to Chelsea Chandler. McCann meanwhile, has finished her last two wins and she has a ton of power for flyweight. Although I think McCann gets a TKO win, I'll play it safe and take McCann by inside the distance here, as I don't trust Stoliarenko's weight cut or durability.
UFC London Best Bet: Molly McCann to win inside the distance (+130)
Weight Classes: Heavyweight & Featherweight
Tom Aspinall (12-3) vs. Marcin Tybura (24-7)
Nathaniel Wood (19-5) vs. Andre Fili (22-9)
For my parlay, I'm backing Tom Aspinall to beat Marcin Tybura in the main event, as well as Nathaniel Wood to beat Andre Fili at featherweight.
Aspinall is coming off a major knee injury last July and is now set for a favorable matchup against Tybura. Tybura is a grinder who will look to push Aspinall up against the fence and try and grind out a decision. However, Aspinall has solid grappling, so I expect him to keep it standing. In the second or third round he'll land heavy shots to get a TKO win.
The other leg is Nathaniel Wood looking to build off of his 2-0 featherweight run, as he previously defeated Charles Jourdain and Charles Rosa. Wood is one of the top prospects in the sport, and he gets a big name fight against Fili, who has struggled as of late (1-2 with one No Contest in his last four). I expect Wood to use his wrestling to get Fili on the ground, and on the feet, the Brit is more active, which is why I like him to win a decision.
UFC London Best Bets: Tom Aspinall & Nathaniel Wood parlay (-119)
UFC London Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC London best bets:
- Jafel Filho (-125)
- Jai Herbert (+135)
- Molly McCann ITD (+130)
- Tom Aspinall & Nathaniel Wood parlay (-119)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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