The UFC stays at home for an Apex card consisting of 12 fights we can analyze to find profit. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, including a BJJ champion facing incredible odds, and a veteran looking to continue his resurgence. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Zachary Reese ($TBD)
This fight was a late addition to the card, as Robert Valentin was removed from his bout with Jackson McVey for an undisclosed reason. McVey has always struck me as someone who was able to use his size and aggressiveness to pick up wins on the regional scene, and that view was reinforced by a quick submission loss to Brunno Ferreira in his UFC debut. Reese should be able to match McVey for strength and is a much more willing and powerful striker. This makes him the clear pick despite the short notice.
Daniel Marcos ($8,500)
I've often been critical of the slow, measured pace of Miles Johns and his reluctance to use his wrestling. While he did notch five takedowns against Jean Matsumoto, he now faces a crafty kickboxer who has shown competency with his own takedowns and did well in scrambles against an imposing figure in Montel Jackson. This leaves me to wonder how Johns will generate consistent offense.
Hyder Amil ($8,200)
I see Jamall Emmers as an underrated fighter, but he has been broken by pressure in the past. Amil will march across the cage and unleash a torrent of offense on "Pretty Boy," which I expect him to deal with initially. Over time, however, we will likely see Amil take over the fight, as Emmers does not have the devastating power of someone like Jose Delgado, who stopped Amil with strikes in June.
Raoni Barcelos ($7,800)
If Barcelos and Ricky Simon were going to have a straight wrestling match, I would give the nod to Ricky. However, Barcelos will have the faster, more educated boxing combinations in this matchup. It is also the case that Simon isn't much of a control grappler, as he allows opponents to get opportunistic positions on the bottom. This should enable an expert BJJ player like Barcelos to execute sweeps and submission attempts when the fight hits the ground.
Gabriel Bonfim ($8,600)
Randy Brown's takedown defense rate of 73 percent is deceptive, as the committed wrestlers he has faced during his UFC tenure are few and far between. Expect Bonfim to close the distance quickly to look for his wrestling opportunities, which will deny "Rude Boy" the chance to use his six-inch reach advantage. An experienced kickboxer like Bonfim should also be able to find a home for leg kicks and exploit Brown's striking defense, which relies primarily on pulling his head straight back.
Joseph Morales ($9,200)
Morales proved in August that his victory on the Ultimate Fighter was no fluke, as he effortlessly outwrestled Alibi Idiris before submitting him in the second round of the finale. Matt Schnell was taken down a whopping five times in his loss to Jimmy Flick, and Morales is far better at controlling and finishing opponents.
Denise Gomes ($8,900)
Tecia Pennington's takedown defense has eroded with time, as "Tiny Tornado" has been brought to the mat a whopping nine times in her last two fights. Gomes is going to make this fight physical quickly, pushing Pennington against the cage and roughing her up before dragging the fight to the ground.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Jacqueline Cavalcanti UNDER 74.5 Significant Strikes, and Ismael Bonfim OVER 38.5 Significant Strikes
Cavilcanti is known for her volume, but Mayra Bueno Silva is a natural pressure fighter who will need to overcome a reach disadvantage of four inches. This should facilitate a bit more grappling than we are used to seeing from "Cheetara" as she tries to keep her opponent close and stop strikes from coming her way in space.
The line here implies a finish for Bonfim, but Chris Padilla is a deliberate striker who forces opponents to fight at his pace. This should allow Bonfim to dart in and out with strikes as Padilla focuses on keeping himself safe.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Max Gimenis Wins via Submission (+1300)
I can only assume the width of this line is due to a combination of the dominant wins secured by Josh Hokit and the fact that there is no available tape of Gimenis in an MMA fight. What we do know, however, is that Gimenis is a highly decorated BJJ blackbelt, and Hokit has shown very little striking to this point, opting instead to lean on his wrestling credentials and bring fights to the ground. This being the case, it seems prudent to take some kind of shot at this line, as the fight dynamics line up in our favor.
Marco Tulio Wins via KO/TKO (+260)
Christian Leroy Duncan is agile for his size, but I view most of that movement as noise that doesn't ultimately lead to offense. Tulio should be able to back him up fairly easily, leaving the taller fighter with little in the way of defense as the Brazilian finds the finishing strike.
Muslim Salikhov Wins via KO/TKO (+215)
Salikhov quickly dispatched of Carlos Leal in July, and I'm betting he can replicate that success against a much more vulnerable fighter in Uros Medic. While Medic is an explosive puncher, his lackluster defense has seen him get hurt even in fights he wins, and "The King of Kung Fu" is good at keeping himself safe and pulling his opponent into strikes. This fight likely ends by knockout one way or the other, and I will always opt for the more inflated line in those scenarios.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 111 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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