This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
Saturday's 12-fight slate features grapplers on both sides of the line, which will force DFS players to key in on certain spots to determine who will use their wrestling to pile up the points. Betting opportunities are a bit more scarce, but we were able to find at least one play, as a physically strong boxer looks to take out a BJJ ace. All of this and more will be covered across five platforms, including the main event between Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Ramona Pascual ($7,700)
I may get burned going back to Pascual, but I just can't pass on someone with her strength and grappling ability at dog odds against this kind of competition. Tamires Vidal throws hard and in combination, but her ability to hunt for submissions off of her back makes her unwilling to attempt to return to her feet after being taken down. Pascual has already shown herself to be incredibly tough, meaning she could put up a big score if she is able to fade an armbar attempt or two.
Johnny Munoz ($8,700)
This may look like an opportunity to take a shot on a credentialed wrestler in Liudvik Sholinian, but the Ukrainian fighter was taken down and controlled so easily by Jack Shore that I am favoring the submission grappler here. Munoz dove headlong into a knee from Tony Gravely to end his last bout, but Sholinian hasn't shown that kind of athleticism or versatility, making me confident that "Kid Kvenbo" will be able to implement his game from start to finish.
Jake Hadley ($9,200)
"White Kong" ran into a superior grappler in his UFC debut against Allan Nascimento, but he should have no such problems against Carlos Candelario, who stands flatfooted and constantly got into trouble against Tatsuro Taira trying to force himself into the clinch. Hadley should be able to easily outscramble "Cannon" on the mat in this one while being able to force the fight he wants with constant pressure.
Mark Madsen ($7,200)
Grant Dawson has been a takedown machine in the Octagon, but he's never faced anyone like Madsen, who boasts a gold medal in Greco-Roman wrestling. This means the former Olympian has incredible upper body strength, and we have seen Dawson exhaust himself due to trying to press the action. I think Dawson will fail on enough attempts to leave him tired in the Octagon, allowing Madsen to work his own takedown game and batter the legs of Dawson with kicks.
Tagir Ulanbekov ($8,600)
I plan on taking full advantage of this price, as Ulanbekov is so active in all facets of MMA that he put up 59 points in a loss to Tim Elliott in March. Nate Maness is a slick boxer with adequate takedown defense, but I expect the relentlessness of Tagir to wear him down over the course of the bout, leading to a big point total whether he finishes or goes to the judges' scorecards.
Plays to Consider on SuperDraft
Josh Parisian – 2.05.X Multiplier
Either Parisian or Chase Sherman could find themselves taking a nap in this one, but I'm leaning toward the slight underdog based on his willingness to grapple and ability to punish opponents with leg kicks. While Sherman will have a speed advantage, the lack of diversity in his attack should be his undoing here, particularly since we saw how easily Jake Collier took him down and notched a submission victory. Parisian should be tough enough to weather an early storm and be the more functional big man in the Octagon when tired.
Darrick Minner -2.2 X Multiplier
TJ Brown had so much success simply pressuring Shayilan Nuerdanbieke that I'm comfortable taking a shot on a sizeable underdog who will force the fight from the opening bell while looking for takedowns and submission opportunities. Both Minner and his opponent are open to being hit on the feet, and the 32-year-old has exhausted himself in the Octagon before, but that explosiveness has the potential to bring in a big score with a victory.
Amanda Lemos – 2.2 X Multiplier
It's not clear to me why Lemos is such a big underdog here, as Marina Rodriguez is a sloppy striker who leaves herself open to brawls in the pocket. The more powerful Lemos can absolutely change the course of the fight in one of these exchanges. As the stronger fighter and more accomplished submission grappler, "Amandinha" has too many ways to win for me to hope that her opponent can keep her stuck at range for 25 minutes.
Plays to Consider on PrizePicks
Neil Magny UNDER 55.5 Significant Strikes and Mario Bautista UNDER 60.5 Significant Strikes
Magny has gotten much better at using his jab to control range, and his new commitment to being an outfighter will be crucial against Daniel Rodriguez, who likes to crowd his opponents and open up with powerful combinations. The veteran won't want to stay in the pocket for long, and will likely mix in grappling exchanges to slow down Rodriguez, which should keep the significant strike totals low.
Bautista will seemingly have advantages everywhere in this matchup but he still shouldn't want to hang out at range with a powerful kickboxer like Benito Lopez. Bautista has been committed to his wrestling and submission grappling lately and should take the path of least resistance to pick up a win.
Plays to Consider on Monkey Knife Fight
Miranda Maverick OVER 78.5 Strikes and Shanna Young UNDER 48.5 Strikes.
Maverick's only losses to date have come against women who are able to muscle her around or outgrapple her in the Octagon. I don't expect Young to be able to do either of those things, as her upright stance should present "Fear The" with takedown attempts throughout the fight. Young may be tough enough to avoid getting finished, but that just means a return to strike totals over 100 for Maverick.
Bets to Consider
Jinh Yu Frey Wins via decision (+150)
It's been years since Polyana Viana beat someone who didn't make the mistake of falling into her guard and Frey is a crisp boxer who has notched just three takedowns in five UFC fights. I often favor kickers over opponents who just throw hands, but Viana is so upright and defensively irresponsible that Frey should be able to score on the feet while keeping herself upright for 15 minutes.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 64 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire Sports Betting section.
