Mission 200 at The Glen
Location: Watkins Glen, New York
Course: Watkins Glen International
Format: Road Course
Laps: 82
NASCAR Xfinity Mission 200 Preview
After a few races on traditional ovals, all NASCAR series will return to a road course, this time at Watkins Glen. It should be a good place for some of the Xfinity Series' recent winners to keep their momentum, including Sam Mayer and Connor Zilisch.
Last week at Iowa, we saw Mayer win his first race of the season, but that was a continuation of his strong recent form. The result was his fifth top-10 finish in his last seven races and his third top-five finish in that span. However, the star of the series is undisputably Zlisch, who leads the series in wins, is tied for the regular-season lead in points and is the sole leader of playoff points.
Key Stats at Watkins Glen
- Number of Races: 30
- Winners from Pole: 10
- Winners from top-five starters 23
- Winners from top-10 starters: 25
Previous 10 Watkins Glen Winners
2024- Connor Zilisch
2023- Sam Mayer
2022- Kyle Larson
2021- Ty Gibbs
2019 – Austin Cindric
2018 – Joey Logano
2017- Kyle Busch
2016- Joey Logano
2015- Joey Logano
2014- Marcos Ambrose
Watkins Glen is one of the long-standing road courses on the NASCAR calendar, as this year's edition will be the 31st Xfinity Series race. As we typically do for the road courses, this is a week to discount recent form and instead focus on driver's ability at road courses. That will still lead us to some of the usual suspects, but also gives us a chance to focus on some less traditional names.
In addition to Austin Hill re-entering the field, we also have both Shane van Gisbergen and Michael McDowell, both of whom have had varying degrees of success on road courses.
RotoWire NASCAR Xfinity DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Mission 200 at The Glen
(Based on Standard $50K salary cap)
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Shane van Gisbergen - $13,200
Connor Zilisch - $12,500
Michael McDowell - $10,100
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Sam Mayer - $9,500
Sheldon Creed- $9,100
Taylor Gray - $9,000
Jesse Love- $8,600
Sammy Smith - $8,400
Christian Eckes- $8,200
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Nick Sanchez - $8,100
Riley Herbst- $8.000
William Sawalich -$7,900
Carson Kvapil - $7,600
Austin Green- $7,500
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Dean Thompson - $7,000
Parker Retzlaff- $6,300
Josh Bilicki - $5,900
Blaine Perkins - $5,800
NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Picks for the Mission 200
Shane van Gisbergen - $13,200
Sammy Smith - $8,400
Nick Sanchez - $8,100
Austin Green- $7,500
Dean Thompson - $7,000
Blaine Perkins - $5,800
This is an interesting week. In some ways, the roster build is straightforward because there are some pretty clear targets in every tier. On the other hand, pricing is tight so it will be necessary to take on a lot of risk to roster one of the favorites.
Van Gisbergen has to be atop any list of favorites, but there may be something of a rivalry brewing between he and Zilisch. The duo have gone head-to-head for the lead and ultimately win on a pair of street/road courses this season, with van Gisbergen getting the better of things the first time and Zilisch the second. It wouldn't be a surprise to see round three on Saturday afternoon. One name to keep in mind is McDowell. He's very strong on road courses in general, but especially at Watkins Glen. The problem is that he's the epitome of wreckers or checkers, so he's a boom-bust option. He comes at a steep discount relative to other Tier 1 drivers, however.
There are several intriguing drivers in Tier 2. Sam Mayer and Sheldon Creed are the top two choices, with Mayer being in better recent form but Creed having a slightly better track record at Watkins Glen. Either is a good option to consider. Smith has finished inside the top 10 in the last three road course races, so he is worth considering at a bit cheaper of a price point.
Sanchez has a mixed history on road courses, but he's an aggressive driver who can move from the back of the field to the front. That's an ideal skillset for DK scoring. There is some boom-bust potential, so he should probably be paired with a few higher-floor options, but Sanchez is definitely worthy of consideration.
From there, we move to some of our values. Green has raced primarily road courses as a part-time driver this season and finished seventh, ninth and 11th in Mexico, Chicago and Sonoma, respectively.
Thompson finds his way into our sample lineups regularly. He doesn't do things the conventional way, often qualifying poorly before finding a way to move up the field. That could end at some point, but he's been among the most consistent performers from a DK points per race perspective.
The final group is several punt plays that will be necessary to get to van Gisbergen and potentially even Zilisch.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Best Bets for the Mission 200 at the Glen
Race Winner: Michael McDowell (+900)
Head-to-Head Matchups:
Justin Allgaier (-110) vs. Austin Hill (-120)
Sheldon Creed (-115) vs. Sam Mayer (-115)
Nick Sanchez (-105) vs. Jesse Love (-115)
This is a week to either avoid the "race winner" favorites, or just avoid wagering on that specific item. McDowell fits the bill nicely, as he's certainly capable of taking home wins but checks in at a palatable price given the risk or tough competition and his own propensity to wreck due to making aggressive moves.
The head-to-head props remain interesting and well-matched. Allgaier and Hill are very evenly matched based on overall form and specific track history. I lean towards Allgaier for the extra value and because he's consistently qualified better than Hill at Watkins Glen.
As we noted in the DFS section, Creed and Mayer is also very even. Creed has the better recent results on road courses, giving him a slight lean. The same is true in the Sanchez vs. Love matchup, with the former performing excellently at the last two road courses while also offering a tiny bit of extra value.
Mapping out your wagers for the Xfinity Series race? Check out the latest Sportsbook Promo Codes to get special offers and make the most of your bets.
