NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship
Location: Avondale, Arizona
Course: Phoenix Raceway
Format: Oval
Length: 1 mile
Laps: 200
NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Preview
It's a big race weekend in Phoenix with three champions set to be crowned across the Truck, Xfinity and Cup Series. In the Xfinity Series, Connor Zilisch, Justin Allgaier, Carson Kvapil and Jesse Love will vie for the title. While not nearly as obvious as Corey Heim in the Truck series, Zilisch is the most deserving driver in the Xfinity Series. If he doesn't win, there will likely be some outrage from fans. Regardless, we should enjoy the final year of the current format as it stands before NASCAR announces a new-look (or maybe return to old) format takes over in 2026.
Key Stats at Phoenix Raceway
- Number of Races: 47
- Winners from Pole: 11
- Winners from Top 5: 38
- Winners from Top 10: 42
Previous Winners at Phoenix Raceway
2025 – Aric Almirola
2024- Riley Herbst
2024- Chandler Smith
2023- Cole Custer
2023- Sammy Smith
2022- Ty Gibbs
2022- Noah Gragson
2021- Daniel Hemric
2021- Austin Cindric
2020- Austin Cindric
Track position is typically king at Phoenix, as six of the last 10 race winners started from third or better on the grid. However, the more recent winners suggest the importance of qualifying inside the top 10 has seemingly diminished, with three of the last five winners having come from a starting position of seventh or worse.
The track itself is a relatively short and flat track, making it comparable to Gateway. At Gateway, Zilisch was the winner, with Jesse Love finishing fifth, Justin Allgaier 28th and Carson Kvapil crashing out of the race.
Meanwhile, Allgaier had the best finish in the spring race at Phoenix, with Love second-best (ninth overall).
NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Values for the Series Championship
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Connor Zilisch - $13,000
Justin Allgaier - $12,500
Aric Almirola - $11,500
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Jesse Love - $10,700
Brandon Jones- $10,200
Sammy Smith - $9,700
Sheldon Creed - $9,000
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Austin Hill - $8,500
Corey Day - $7,700
Christian Eckes - $7,300
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Daniel Dye - $6,800
Jeb Burton - $6,600
Brennan Poole- $6,000
NASCAR Xfinity Picks for the Series Championship
Justin Allgaier - $12,500
Jesse Love - $10,700
Christian Eckes - $7,300
Daniel Dye - $6,800
Jeb Burton - $6,600
Brennan Poole - $6,000
DraftKings was very aggressive with its pricing toward the top range of the driver pool. Love is the cheapest driver among the four racing for a championship, and Almirola as well as Jones join them with five-digit price tags. That makes a stars and scrubs build a near inevitability, except for those looking to face the Championship four drivers.
Up top, there's a choice between Allgaier and Zilisch. Allgaier has historical results on his sides as one of the more successful drivers at the track among the current field. Zilisch has the momentum and the results this season. Love looks to the be the value among this group of drivers. He qualified fifth and finished ninth in the spring race and then brought home a fifth-place finish at Gateway just a few weeks ago. Sammy Smith has four top-10 finishes at Phoenix across six races for those looking for a cheaper option in Tier 2.
Both Day and Eckes are strong value plays. Day wasn't in the field for the spring race and doesn't have Xfinity experience at the track, but he finished ninth at Gateway and has earned over 40 DK points in half of his 10 Xfinity races this season. Eckes has had solid finishes at Phoenix and Gateway in his rookie year.
The good news about the aggressive pricing at the top of the field, is that it's balanced relatively well by solid options in the punt range of pricing. Dye is priced as a punt but hasn't driven that way. He has nine top-10 finishes this season and has popped for over 30 DK points in three of his last eight races – including a 35-point effort at Gateway. Burton is just a steady hand at the right price, as he has a good chance of finishing around 15th and is priced down from his typical range around $7,000.
Best Bets for the Championship Race
Outright Winner – Connor Zilisch (+250), Justin Allgaier (+330), Jesse Love (+450), Sammy Smith (+1500)
I looked back on my notes for the spring race, and I noted Love as a strong value in the race. That didn't come to fruition in terms of a race win, but he's a good value again in the fall. Zilisch and Allgaier have dominated the series recently and historically, respectively, so they are the rightfully the favorites to walk away with the Championship, but Love is a decent third option. In the last four years, the race winner has been in the final four, but that doesn't have to be the case. Smith would be my choice as winner among those eliminated from the playoffs. He won the race in 2023 and has since qualified first and third for the race (in four chances), so Smith has often put himself in a position to contend.
Head-to-Head Matchups:
Sammy Smith (-140) vs. Sheldon Creed (-105)
Brandon Jones (-120) vs. Taylor Gray (-110)
We haven't talked much about Jones or Gray, last week's winner at Martinsville. Jones is similar to Smith in that he is consistently positioned to finish inside the top 10, if not contend for a race win. Gray had a very good result in Phoenix in the spring and also has momentum, but I slightly prefer Jones' steadiness.
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