MLB: The Value of Volume

MLB: The Value of Volume

What happens in a land of midgets, when one giant shows up?

I decided to do a little experiment to find out.

You see, the pitching landscape heading into 2021 is as unpredictable as it's ever been coming off last year's shortened season. Six-man rotations, decreased innings — it's chaotic. We all know buying volume (innings) will be both tough and valuable this year.

Here's the experiment I set up: I took Steamer's projections (not because I think they're the best projections but because everybody can access them publicly) and took every starting pitcher they have a projection for and prorated their statistics over 150 innings. Doesn't matter who they are, they get the same 150 innings and assume all their other projected statistics prorate accordingly.

I then ran the adjusted projection through a valuation model (I use SGPs for 15-team mixed leagues — if you have no idea what that means, don't worry about it, it doesn't matter for the purposes of this experiment). I then sorted all the starting pitchers from first (still Jacob deGrom) on down.

Then I went to the 100th ranked starting pitcher — it happened to be Brady Singer (it doesn't matter if you have him ranked much higher, or lower than 100th in your rankings, this is a math debate, not a player one). Singer is suddenly a giant amongst the midgets — he gets 200 innings pitched, compared to every other starting pitcher's 150. His ERA is still the 4.46 Steamer

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Rob Silver
Rob talks baseball on the Launch Angle podcast. He writes about baseball at Baseball Prospectus and was the 2016 NFBC Main Event winner. He talks politics on CBC's Power and Politics.
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