MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.

We're at an interesting point of the season when it comes to trying to draw any meaningful insights from the games played thus far. There have been roughly three times as many games played as this time last week, though it's obviously still quite early. Some parts of the baseball world already make sense: The Dodgers have the best record in the entire league, with the Padres right behind them. Others, not so much: Cedric Mullins, Yermin Mercedes and Tyler Naquin all find themselves as top-10 hitters according to the fWAR leaderboard.

Mike Trout has spent a brief period atop that leaderboard already, though he sits third through Sunday's games, so we haven't yet reached the unofficial point at which stats become believable. We've also yet to reach the stabilization point for even those numbers, which stabilize the quickest. Strikeout rates for both hitters and pitchers are among the fastest to become relevant, but even those tend to take at least 15 games for hitters and 17.1 innings for pitchers. Other stats take considerably longer.

We should start hitting the first of those marks this week, so it's worth a reminder as to how stabilization points actually work. A stabilization point tells us that for a given number within said sample, a meaningful portion of that stat was reflective of a player's true talent rather than luck. What it doesn't tell us, however, is anything with much precision about the future. Players' true talent changes in all sorts of

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Erik Halterman
Erik Halterman is an MLB staff writer at RotoWire. He also covers KBO, NPB and CPBL daily fantasy contests.
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