This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for May 7th
Season record 8-8, -1.56 Units
It's Wednesday. It's May, We have probably 12 hours of continuous Major League Baseball on tap. It's time to break out into positive on the year. Lets go!
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Top Blue Jays vs. Angels Betting Insights
Every year I kind of hope the Angels get it together and compete, ideally on the back of Mike Trout finally staying on the field. Unlike a good portion of MLB, they actually sign guys and generally try to field a competitive team. They just do a lousy job of it. And of course, Trout never stays healthy. He's out now for a minor sounding bone bruise that if recent history is any indication, will keep him out somewhere between 2 months and the rest of the season. Oh well.
The Halos started the season OK, but have floundered recently and now find themselves in last place in the AL West. What's more, their offense has completely imploded. They erupted out of nowhere for 6 runs in the 8th last night. Even with that, they rank dead last in MLB with a 58 wRC+ over the last 3 weeks, and have hit .196 and scored just 50 runs in 18 games.
The Blue Jays will start Jose Berrios. He's nobody's definition of an ace, but he generally gives the Jays some innings and a shot to win. He's gone at least 5 innings every start, and only given up more than 3 runs in 2 of his 7 outings. One of those was on Opening Day where he got flayed for 6 runs, 9 hits and 2 BB's in 5 IP by the Orioles. Since then, Berrios has a 3.03 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, with 31 K's in 35.2 IP. ERA estimators are a bit less impressed as he carries a 4.15 SIERA. We're talking a mid-rotation guy with a Stuff and a Statcast page that's just a bucket of meh.
But I'm going to ride with Berrios via a couple Angels hitter under props. Why? Well, the prices factor in that he's not likely to rip through this, or any, lineup. And the Angels pose as little a threat as anyone right now. Zach Neto (290/.323/.565) in 16 games and Logan O'Hoppe (9 homers, 154 wRC+ overall) are the only guys hitting much at all lately. Those 2, and 1B Nolan Schanuel are the only regulars hitting above .221 on the season, and Schanuel is a first baseman with a .237 average with 2 homers.
MLB Best Bets
- Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-120 DraftKings)
- Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-145 DraftKings)\
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Twins vs. Orioles: Key Betting Trends and Tips
We often get anchored to our first impressions of teams. But it's a REALLY long season, and a lot can change. On April 15th, the Twins collectively had a 78 wRC+ and a .213 team batting average. But since then, they've gone 112 wRC+ and .261. And they have most of their lineup intact, a rare occurrence for this franchise. Royce Lewis made his season debut last night. He didn't get a hit, but he didn't get injured either, so take your win! He joins Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, neither of whom has hit the IL yet, so everything is turning up.
Buxton has actually hit quite well all year, slashing .267/.300/.519 with 8 homers and 7 steals, though his 32.9% K% vs. 3.6% BB% looks kind of ugly. He's managed to overcome that with his 56% HardHit% and 16.1% Barrel%, both of which would be career highs if they hold. Correa did hit a homer last night, but it's more of a slog for him overall this season. Other hitters like Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach have picked up a bit of the slack.
Even better for the Twins, they get to play at home where they've actually hit well all season at 113 wRC+ and .260 BA, and they get to face Charlie Morton.. The 41-year-old has had an excellent career, but he just looks lost so far in 2025. He carries an impossibly ugly 9.76 ERA and 2.20 WHIP combo into Target Field today, and has really only kept his rotation spot thanks to Orioles pitcher injuries and the fact that almost all of their healthy starters look horrendous. Now, of course, Morton has not pitched quite as badly as his top line numbers, he has "just" a 5.25 SIERA and 6.05 xERA. But his 14.1% BB% ranks among the worst in MLB, and when he's only carrying an 18.1% K% and allowing a 91.7 EV, its just impossible to avoid major damage. The Orioles have tried to manage him as a "bulk" pitcher behind an opener in recent outings, but it has not helped much.
MLB Best Bets
- Twins Team Total Runs Over 4.5 (-110 DraftKings)
- Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120 DraftKings)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-120 DraftKings)
- Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-145 DraftKings)
- Twins Team Total Runs Over 4.5 (-110 DraftKings)
- Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120 DraftKings)
