Previous article: 2-1, +1.05 RWbucks
Overall: 47-25, +14.46 RWbucks
Another solid 2-1 Monday on the plus side as the White Sox-Twins game was postponed. I carried over that pick for Tuesday as I still like it.
White Sox vs. Twins, 8:10 p.m. EDT
This game opened with the White Sox -145 and quickly went to -135. I think the line move is related to Jose Abreu being out. But I still think the number is very low on the White Sox side, especially with Lucas Giolito pitching at home against Kenta Maeda. I know both teams are heading in opposite directions recently but this line screams recency bias. The White Sox are 28-14 at home and still the better team overall in this spot.
BET: White Sox -0.5 runs first 5 innings (+100) for 1 RWbuck
Cubs at Brewers, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Zach Davies vs. Brandon Woodruff
Laying just 1.5 earned runs on a starting pitcher can be tough, but Woodruff has three starts against the Cubs this year and has allowed just one earned run in 19 innings with 22 strikeouts and three walks. Toss in the last start from 2020 where he struck out 12 Cubs and allowed no runs.
He is a huge favorite at home at -225 with a low total of 7.5. The Cubs have not been hitting and have gone under the total in seven of their last 10 games. They have struck out 12.6 times per game in their last seven games and rank last in strikeout rate in this split (RHP/Away) at 32.2 percent.
BET: Woodruff under 1.5 earned runs (+115) for 1 RWbuck
BET: Woodruff over 8.5 strikeouts (-110) for 1 RWbuck
Giants at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. EDT
Kevin Gausman vs. Walker Buehler
One of my go-to system plays is when two strong teams have strong starting pitchers in a pitchers' park, I look at going under the total for the first five innings. The total opened at 7.5 and quickly moved to 7. The total has gone under in seven of the last eight games for the Dodgers at home. The Dodgers are hitting .202 over their last seven games. Another system I look at is the power vs. finesse pitcher and the Dodgers are hitting just .189 this season against power pitchers. (Power pitcher is defined as being in the top third of the league in strikeouts). The Giants are hitting just .209 vs. power pitchers.
I think we get about half a run value on this line as both pitchers should be able to limit run scoring.
BET: Under 3.5 runs first 5 innings (-110) for 1 RWbuck
