Thursday slates will likely be smaller in the closing weeks due to the NFL, but MLB has treated us with nine games here. The only issue is that we have a spread schedule, with three of those games happening during the day. That still leaves us with plenty of options to dissect on the evening slate, and I'm looking to build off of one of my best articles of the season last Thursday. With that in mind, let's start by looking at the arms!
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Pitching
Gavin Williams, CLE vs. KC ($9,000)
Williams has been all over the map in terms of consistency, but it's impossible to overlook what he's done recently. The right-hander has scored at least 37 FanDuel points in five of his last seven outings, generating a 2.24 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 rate across his last nine starts. The stuff has always backed a stat line like that, and we can't overlook this home matchup with KC. Williams has a 3.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 rate at home, while the Royals rank 23rd in OBP, 24th in wOBA and 28th in runs scored. That was on full display when Williams allowed just two runs in their two matchups this season.
Bryce Miller, SEA vs. LAA ($7,200)
Miller is a great punt play in a matchup like this. Let's start there because the Angels rank 28th in OBP while posting the worst K rate in baseball. That's scary since Seattle has the most pitcher-friendly park in the league, with Miller maintaining a 3.11 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 rate there over the last three years. His 2.94 ERA and 0.98 WHIP last season show how special he can be, and we're really encouraged that he's allowed just two runs in back-to-back starts. Not to mention, Miller has at least 39 FD points in four of his six matchups with the Halos in his career.
Top Targets
Julio Rodriguez, SEA (vs. Yusei Kikuchi) $3,900
Julio has been a regular in my articles over the last month because he continues to produce in a sensational second half. The perennial All-Star is up to 30 dingers and 25 steals, providing a .307 AVG, .637 SLG and .983 OPS across his last 52 fixtures. He's on a 65-homer and 35-steal 162-game pace during that superb stretch, and we didn't even mention that he has the platoon advantage against a struggling southpaw. That happens to be Kikuchi, who has compiled a 13.89 ERA and 2.23 WHIP across his last three starts. If you want to stack Seattle, we also love Randy Arozarena ($3,500) from the right side.
Jazz Chisholm, NYY (vs. Sawyer Gipson-Long) $3,700
Jazz was a smart addition by the Yanks last season, and he continues to be one of the best dual threats in the sport. He's already up to 28 homers and 27 steals across 112 games this year while posting a .489 SLG and .825 OPS. That looks even better when peeking at his splits, with Chisholm collecting a .862 OPS with the platoon advantage. That should bode well when considering his recent form, as he's totaled a .365 OBP and .965 OPS across his last 26 outings while recording 13 steals in that span. That's bad news for Gipson-Long, and we'll talk more about him in the Stacks To Consider section.
Bargain Bats
Ryan O'Hearn, SD (vs. McCade Brown) $2,900
Many people overlook the trade for O'Hearn, but that was a savvy acquisition by San Diego. They've actually been hitting him between second and fourth since that trade, which is one of the best spots in baseball next to Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado. He's earned that spot thanks to a career year, accruing a .367 OBP and .810 OPS. Most of that damage has happened against righties, and he's amassed a .278 AVG and .794 OPS against them over the last three years. We love that against the worst pitching staff in baseball, and we'll talk about that more below.
Kyle Manzardo, CLE (vs. Stephen Kolek) $2,800
Cleveland fans have been waiting for Manzardo to become an everyday player, and we're finally getting glimpses of that potential in the second half. The first baseman has been hitting cleanup recently, registering a .439 OBP, .706 SLG and 1.145 OPS across his last 10 outings. That's no surprise since he has a career-high .793 OPS for the season while registering a .808 OPS against right-handers. That makes him way too cheap, especially since he faces a righty with a 4.48 xERA. Jose Ramirez ($3,800) has been one of the best players in DFS over the last decade and is an obvious pairing with Manzardo if you want to stack Guardians.
Stacks to Consider
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies (Brown): Fernando Tatis ($3,600), Manny Machado ($3,500), Gavin Sheets ($2,800), O'Hearn ($2,900)
I live in Colorado and follow the Rockies relatively closely, and I had no clue who this guy was when he got called up. It's bad enough when Rockies pitchers that I've heard of take the mound, but it tends to be an utter disaster when it's a mystery hurler. The Rockies rank dead last in ERA, WHIP and xwOBA, and Brown has posted a 12.54 ERA and 2.36 WHIP through two starts. That's even scarier given how hot San Diego is right now, and they touched up Brown to the tune of six runs across 1.2 innings in his most recent start.
We already foreshadowed Tatis as a tremendous play in the O'Hearn write-up, with the All-Star on pace for a 20-30 season. He's also got a .387 OBP over the last two months while posting a .957 OPS against the Rockies this year. Manny is right there with him, maintaining a .881 OPS against Colorado. Sheets should have plenty of RBI opportunities behind these guys, sporting a .812 OPS against right-handers this year.
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers (Gipson-Long): Aaron Judge ($4,700), Cody Bellinger ($3,400), Ben Rice ($3,100), Giancarlo Stanton ($3,500), Chisholm ($3,600)
The Yankees are always an elite option against any pitcher and rank top-five in nearly every offensive category. Those numbers get even better in a hitter's haven like Yankee Stadium, which won't forecast well for a pitcher like this. Gipson-Long has only made seven career starts, and he's compiled an 8.31 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in three starts this year.
Judge is always an obvious option when stacking the Yanks, posting a 1.106 OPS over the last four years. Bellinger is having one of his best seasons since his MVP campaign, accumulating a .910 OPS across his last 60 outings. Rice is one of the hottest catcher-eligible players in baseball, producing a .880 OPS across his last 21 games. Chisholm was discussed above, and Stanton is the final piece of the stack, posting a 1.045 OPS across his last 49 outings.
