This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Tuesday's FanDuel main slate includes 12 games with our typical 7:05 p.m. EDT first pitch. Only two pitchers are priced in five figures, with five more in the $9,000 range, so paying up won't likely be required. Detroit is currently without a confirmed starter, shortening the options slightly.
Red Sox-Angels and Twins-Athletics are our highest expected scoring games at 9.5 runs, while Orioles-Mariners and Padres-Giants are the low spots at 7.5. The Yankees (-200) and Twins (-194) are the slate's biggest favorites, with all other games being closer to coin flips. Rain looks like a major concern in Tampa, forcing that to be monitored for a postponement, which is a shame because both Drew Rasmussen at $8,800 and Tyler Mahle at $9,000 are very nice options if we get clearance the game is a go. Winds can shift, but they look like they'll play a positive factor in Chicago, St. Louis, San Francisco and Los Angeles, while inbound winds could have an impact in Sacramento.
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Pitching
Pablo Lopez, MIN at ATH ($9,800): This likely is from the Captain Obvious Department, as Lopez has the softest matchup among the top arms. The Athletics are statistically above average against righties, but their lineup is dealing with injuries and losing it's punch. The inbound winds factor too and negate the hitter-friendly ballpark factor. Further, the A's pitching has fallen off a cliff, suggesting Lopez can get staked to an early lead. The right-hander is coming off his worst start of the year, so we'll look for a bounceback.
Zac Gallen, ARI at ATL ($8,500): This is a battle of who is worse. Gallen is in miserable form, having allowed at least four runs in four straight starts and 19 total across his last 21.1 innings. Atlanta has big names that are all under-producing, and while the stats (105 wRC+, 21.6 percent K rate) say the lineup isn't awful, it isn't passing the eye test. Atlanta comes in with a 42.3 percent groundball rate and only a 30.7 percent hard-hit rate. There's certainly bust potential, but Gallen has been decent against this opponent, allowing just a .736 OPS in 111 plate appearances with a 20.7 percent K rate.
Sawyer Gipson-Long, DET at CWS ($7,100): He'll need to be activated from the IL and confirmed as the Tigers starter or bulk reliever, but the fact that he isn't as of Tuesday morning on FanDuel can give us some very low roster rates, and Gipson-Long would have a high ceiling at this salary. The White Sox have the second-worst numbers against righties to date with an 80 wRC+ and .114 ISO, striking out 22.7 percent of the time. They've got a run expectancy of just 3.7. The righty was efficient in his last Triple-A start, needed only 53 pitches to work 5.1 frames, so it's fair to question if he'll have a workload restriction, but five clean innings with a strikeout per frame works tremendously at this salary.
Top Targets
Toronto's Bowden Francis has been someone we've targeted most of the season. He's still getting pelted by lefties, allowing a .488 wOBA, 1.158 OPS and 11 homers to 123 batters faced at home. Kyle Schwarber ($4,300) headlines, and I assume Bryce Harper ($3,700) returns Tuesday, but Philadelphia has ample cheap lefties throughout its lineup to provide strong stacking consideration.
Atlanta's Spencer Strider remains a big name, but it's clear through two starts he's not fully himself, as his velocity is a tick down and he's struggling to find his command and control. As such, I'm not shying away from Arizona's lineup. Ketel Marte ($3,700) has a .443 wOBA and 185 wRC+ off righties, while Corbin Carroll ($4,100) sits at .398/154.
Bargain Bats
George Kirby has been torched in his first two starts back from the IL, allowing 11 runs in 8.2 innings. He's still got an elite ceiling, and when adding the ballpark factor, it's enough to fade an Orioles stack. The flip side is that Baltimore hitters are all priced down, and their lefty-heavy top of the order has great numbers off RHP. Any of Jackson Holliday ($3,000), Ryan O'Hearn ($3,100), or Gunnar Henderson ($3,100) are sound options to round out your build.
Max Muncy ($2,900) has been hot with four homers in his last six games, and Mets starter Tylor Megill has been fading. That gives us a cheap entry point into the Dodgers lineup, albeit one with nearly no floor, just an incredibly high ceiling.
It's Jac Caglianone ($2,500) or bust for Royals fans. He gets a matchup with Andre Pallante, who doesn't miss bats, in his big-league debut. Pallante's a heavy groundball guy, but he is allowing a 26.3 HR/FB ratio to lefties. With outbound winds here, Caglianone just needs to lift one to return value.
Stacks to Consider
Twins vs. Jacob Lopez (Athletics): Byron Buxton ($3,600), Ryan Jeffers ($2,800), Carlos Correa ($2,800)
Lopez has a 6.32 ERA, 5.58 xFIP and is allowing 1.72 HR/9, a .385 wOBA to righties and .394 to lefties. Minnesota figures to stack their lineup with righties at the top, and these three all have massive splits off lefties. Correa leads the Twins with a .464 wOBA, 208 wRC+ and .412 ISO off southpaws. Buxton sits at .435/187/.346, and while Jeffers offers no power, he's at .400/163/.088. The assumption is this trio hits 1-2-4 and can feed off each other with multiple hits even if the winds keep homers down.
Cardinals vs. Michael Lorenzen (Royals): Lars Nootbaar ($3,100), Brendan Donovan ($3,000), Masyn Winn ($2,900)
Lorenzen has a 5.17 road ERA (5.09 FIP), and while he's more ground ball (41.5 percent) than fly ball (38.2), that's a narrow difference and he's allowing a promising 17.0 percent HR/FB ratio. This trio should hit atop the order, comes cheaply, and Donovan gives us a plethora of position eligibility. He leads the Cardinals with a .398 wOBA and 158 wRC+ off righties. Winn sits at .390/152 and Nootbaar .344/121. Confirm the windy conditions later in the day and this game could take off on both sides.
