A 10-game main slate awaits Saturday evening, starting at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Pitching isn't plentiful, with only one arm priced in five-figures and three more in the $9,000 tier. And that's loosely backed up by the run lines. While no games have double-digit scoring expectancy, four games come in with a 9.0 or 9.5 run total and only Phillies-Rangers (7.5) sits below eight runs.
Weather looks negligible. No rain concerns are present, while a few spots (Chicago, St. Louis, San Diego and Los Angeles) could have some minor boosts due to heat and/or wind.
Pitching
Jesus Luzardo, PHI at TEX ($9,500): The top of the pitching options look somewhat volatile considering the costs. They all seem to come with pitch/inning constraints, making an elite ceiling a challenge, particularly when considering they all face decent offenses. Luzardo gets the best matchup on paper, facing a Rangers team with a 77 wRC+ and 25.0 percent K rate against lefties. He's coming off consecutive quality starts but has shown very capable of blowing up, making him a far better GPP option than a cash lineup play.
Eduardo Rodriguez, ARI vs. COL ($8,500): The profile here is almost identical to Luzardo's, and it comes $1,000 cheaper. Colorado is dreadful against lefties, fanning 25.0 percent of the time while posting a league-low 72 wRC+. Rodriguez has only one quality start in his last five and he too has shown prone to blowup outings. But he's averaging a strikeout per inning, which should play up in this matchup, and the 5.53 ERA comes with a lower 4.18 xFIP. If he limits walks, Rodriguez can provide a 4x or better return thanks to the opponent.
Logan Evans, SEA vs. TB ($7,500): We're not looking for perfection at this price point, and Evans certainly won't provide it. But he's been better at home (3.03 ERA vs. 5.45 on the road), and the Rays are one of the few teams on the slate with a run expectancy under four. He doesn't strike out many, so the ceiling is very limited. Evans hasn't topped 26 fantasy points since May 26, but if we can squeeze out a 3x return and hit correctly on bats, there's a path to success.
Top Targets
At this point in the season, what builds don't start with targeting bats against the Rockies? Bradley Blalock has been decent in limited games away from Coors Field, but still comes in allowing a .403 wOBA and .936 OPS to lefties. Corbin Carroll ($4,300) has homered in consecutive games, while Ketel Marte ($3,800) has four multihit games in his last nine.
Frankie Montas has an 8.10 road ERA, allowing 2.0 HR/9 and a .428 wOBA and 1.009 OPS to lefties. Christian Yelich ($3,700) has 10 hits, 10 runs scored and five RBI over his last seven games.
Bargain Bats
Luis Robert ($3,100) went hitless last night, but had 12 hits in his previous seven games. Despite his season-long struggles, he boasts a .403 wOBA, 160 wRC+ and .256 ISO off lefties.
I noted yesterday that Baltimore has been a popular stacking consideration all season and usually has let us down. That manifested again Friday, but they come with a 5.1 run expectancy here despite A's starter Jack Perkins not having targetable splits. Don't go crazy, but pieces to this offense should help round out roster construction. Adley Rutschman ($2,800) has hit safely in every game this month and homered last night. Ryan Mountcastle ($2,600) mashed during his rehab assignment and homered in last night's return, and Colby Mayo ($2,600) has shown some promise if he's in the lineup.
Stacks to Consider
Athletics vs. Brandon Young (Orioles): Nick Kurtz ($4,100), Tyler Soderstrom ($3,100), Lawrence Butler ($3,000)
It feels like the A's lineup has been a popular target all week, and they've been a bit of a letdown, but Saturday is the day! Young's numbers at home haven't been good, as he's allowed a 6.85 ERA (5.94 FIP) and is allowing a .432 wOBA and 1.026 OPS to lefties and .417/.980 to righties, so all options are in play. Kurtz seems overdue, having not homered since his four homer barrage on July 25, and had two hits last night. Soderstom has hits in nine of his last 10 and homers in two of his last three. I'm not married to Butler, who doesn't have a multihit game since July 8, but he's a third lefty that hits atop the order. JJ Bleday ($2,700) has been hot of late and makes for an interesting upside piece if he starts.
Royals vs. Bailey Ober (Twins): Bobby Witt ($3,900), Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,200), Salvador Perez ($3,000)
Ober has allowed four or more runs in each of his last six starts, 34 runs and 44 hits in total. And there's reasonable familiarity and success with this trio against him, who have gone 25-for-62 (.403) with three homers, five doubles and two triples. The form from this three is decent enough and they come with a 4.8 run expectancy, so there's a path for them to feed off each other.
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