This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Over the next three weeks, I want to look at some younger arms who have provided us with a large enough sample to get a feel for what they could provide a fantasy owner right out of the box next season - this week I'll look at some National League names, and next week we'll visit the American League - and then, in the third part of the series, I'll post my elite pitching prospect list, with arms that have yet to arrive, or have only given us a brief peak at what they might offer in the future. It's been an amazing year, and this is a fun time to start plotting a strategy for next season. Keep in mind, the pitchers listed below are at various steps along the developmental timeline, and the goal is to find arms capable of taking a significant step forward from where they are now. Let's take a look.
Potential Breakout Arms to Watch - National League
Zack Wheeler (New York Mets) - Once at the top of the Mets' pitching prospect list, I actually rank him third. That said, I would call it a very optimistic third. In 2015 the Mets will welcome back Matt Harvey (from Tommy John surgery) and at some point they expect to have Noah Syndergaard in their rotation. I think both of these arms have a higher ceiling than Wheeler, but he is just slightly better command from becoming a top-of-the- rotation arm. He's coming along, and trusting his stuff, so it's not a huge step. When he gets there, he'll be able to pitch deeper into games and he has the ability to do so frequently. Add to that the synergy of being surrounded by these other two premium prospects and all the pieces are there for a breakout campaign.
Alex Wood (Atlanta Braves) - Wood is a borderline qualifier for this list as he already put up a very strong season this year. He has 10 wins and a 1.15 WHIP to go with a sparkling 2.90 ERA while striking out just under a batter per inning. The Braves actually tried to assign him to the bullpen and he made 11 relief appearances before injuries and his performance forced them to give him a turn every five days. He already has all the tools to make a bigger impact next year, but I listed him here because not being in the rotation all season has somewhat masked his true potential. With any luck at all, other fantasy owners will have overlooked that and you might be able to snag him at a modest discount. I expect him to be Atlanta's staff leader one day soon.
Jake Arrieta (Chicago Cubs) - Changing teams has always been something I watch closely, and while moving from Baltimore to the Cubs would usually be seen as a step backwards, it has been anything but for Arrieta. Over his time with the Orioles I always listed him as a top pitching prospect, but for four years he bounced up and down, pitched in relief, and in the rotation, and he never fully developed into what he could be. In Chicago, he has been handed the ball, and told to just do it - and he has. He now displays the necessary confidence and poise needed to turn a blue chip skill set into top tier pitching performance. Some will think his 2014 success is a fluke, but I don't think so. He's blossoming into a front line starter, and to make things even better, the usually outclassed Cubs are virtually loaded with an incredible roster filled with exciting young hitters who should come into their own as Arrieta reaches his full potential.
Nathan Eovaldi (Miami Marlins) - Armed with a blazing fastball that he can carry deep into games - his heater averages nearly 96 mph - he can handcuff hitters with both velocity and movement. He could step into a late innings relief role and thrive, but the Marlins, like his former organization, the Dodgers, are intrigued with the possibilities if he can develop a respectable change-up and a breaking pitch that would compliment that feisty fastball. It's coming. He is still too hittable as batters sit on the fastball and tend to somewhat ignore everything else he throws. Eovaldi is the type of pitcher who will take a step forward, and then seemingly take a step back as he matures, but arms like him often just click into place. A major drop in walk rate could be a tipoff that he's close. A small adjustment, a tweak in their delivery, and it all comes together. I want to own him when that happens, and it could be in 2015.
Charlie Morton (Pittsburgh Pirates) - Earlier in his career I wasn't all that impressed with Morton, but he is gradually winning me over. He's an extreme groundball pitcher which is a big help in limiting home runs, but he has just an average fastball (he tops out at about 92 mph) and has not shown the ability to keep left-handed hitters off balance. In previous seasons lefties hit over .300 against him and it wasn't all that difficult for opposing managers to stack their lineups according. This season there has been a notable improvement in his off speed offerings, and he is spotting his pitches better so that average against from the left side has dipped to a much more effective .243 and the results have been impressive. He's never going to be a big strikeout pitcher, but there has been steady improvement in that category and he now averages about seven punchouts per nine innings. I expect another step forward next season.
Some Notable Rotation Ramblings
• Injuries have been a problem for the Royals' Danny Duffy before, but it looked like he might have put them behind him this season. Unfortunately, he left his last start after just one pitch and was sent home for an MRI. The MRI showed no structural damage, but anytime the words "shoulder" and "injury" are used in the same sentence, I get nervous.
• As quickly as the struggles arrived, they appear to have disappeared for the Cardinals' ace Adam Wainwright. He spent about six weeks scuffling to get back in the rhythm and tossed hints that he was getting there along the way. His last outing, a complete game domination of the division-rival Brewers, was vintage Wainwright.
• The Rangers' Derek Holland has come back with a vengeance. It's premature to think he might be one of those guys who comes back from a year off even better than he was before the injury, but the early returns suggest that might be the case. He should be penciled in up higher on the list on your draft day grid for next spring.
•Tyson Ross had a little hiccup last Sunday - a hiccup called Coors Field so I'll be a bit forgiving - but I want to mention him since he would have been on the 2015 breakout list if he hadn't already broken out to some extent. He doesn't get win generating run support from a popgun Padres' offense but helps in all the other starter categories.
• Who has the third best ERA in the American League since July 1st? If you guessed Baltimore's Miguel Gonzalez (1.82) you win. If you have had him in your fantasy rotation since then, you really win. Beware though, he is part of a somewhat magical season for the Orioles and he will again be Miguel Gonzalez.
• I mentioned the anticipation Mets' fans have when looking forward to their three super prospects all pitching together in 2015, but Jacob DeGrom is worthy of some attention as well. He doesn't have the ceiling of Harvey, Syndergaard, or Wheeler, but he is certainly capable of being a better than average number four or five.
The Endgame Odyssey
The Red Sox have removed Koji Uehara from the closer's role, and if he's not healthy enough to be closing he's unlikely to be pitching. Boston has no reason to push it and Edward Mujica will see most of the save chances the rest of the way. ... Casey Janssen has struggled throughout the second half and may be a part-time closer now. It looks like Aaron Sanchez will get at least some looks for the last month, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a save opp or two for Brandon Morrow. ... Rafael Soriano is out as the closer in Washington, at least for now, so Tyler Clippard or Drew Storen (the better option in my opinion) will get at least a few chances. The Nationals are playoff bound and they will want the closer situation settled as soon as possible. ... Joaquin Benoit has a balky shoulder and like other non-playoff teams, the Padres have no reason to push it so they will take a look at Kevin Quackenbush. ... It sounds like Sean Doolittle will be back soon for the A's so the Eric O'Flaherty (who has been suffering back stiffness anyway) era is nearly at an end. ... A couple of locked in end gamers - Greg Holland of Kansas City and Glen Perkins in Minnesota - have had some minor health issues but nothing that sounds long term so they should be back in the saddle soon. ... The Rays are keeping us guessing. Their best option, Jake McGee, has pitched well in the closer's role but they still sometimes use him earlier in games. He remains the arm to own though. ... Joakim Soria is back after missing a month and will presumably set-up Joe Nathan for the Tigers. However, Nathan has had bouts of ineffectiveness and elbow soreness so Soria could find himself closing if the need arises.
