Clayton Kershaw reached a historic milestone late Tuesday night when he recorded his 3,000th career strikeout. He became the 20th pitcher all-time to reach that milestone, and he'll likely join Walter Johnson and Bob Gibson as the only pitchers to spend their entire career with just one team while achieving that.
When Nolan Ryan reached the milestone – 45 years ago as of Friday – he was just the fourth to strike out 3,000 batters. Since then, 16 pitchers have achieved the feat, but there's a good chance Kershaw, the longtime Los Angeles Dodgers star, will be the last to reach the mark for a while.
In honor of Kershaw's accomplishment, Rotowire.com created odds on who will be the next pitcher – if any – to reach 3000K. These odds are for infotainment purposes only, and you will not find them at any regulated sports betting sites.
Odds On Next To Reach 3,000 Strikeouts
Outcome | Odds | Percent Chance |
Chris Sale (Braves) | +200 | 33.3% |
Gerrit Cole (Yankees) | +350 | 22.2% |
Yu Darvish (Padres) | +4000 | 2.4% |
Charlie Morton (Orioles) | +4600 | 2.1% |
The Field | +150 | 40.0% |
Challenges Facing Active Pitchers in Quest for 3,000Ks
Kershaw is one of three active pitchers with 3K, joining San Francisco Giants veteran Justin Verlander (3,471 career strikeouts as of July 2) and Max Scherzer (3,419) of the Toronto Blue Jays. All three were solid baseball betting wagers for many years, though they're all showing their age now.
Only four active pitchers have more than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000 strikeouts. How realistic are their chances of reaching 3K for Ks?
Yu Darvish, 38, reached 2,000 last September with the San Diego Padres. He injured his elbow during spring training and has yet to pitch in a game this season, though he could return soon. Still, the likelihood he could even pitch five more seasons, much less average 200 Ks per season, is very, very low.
At 41, Charlie Morton is the second oldest player currently in the bigs (behind the 42-year-old Verlander) and has just 2,124 strikeouts. He did not emerge as a strikeout pitcher until he joined Houston in 2017. Morton has bounced around the league in his career, with Baltimore being his sixth team in 18 years. For him to get to 3,000, he'd need to be like Jamie Moyer and pitch in MLB into his late 40s. Again, that seems very unlikely.
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Sale and Cole Top Contenders for 3,000 Career Strikeouts
Among active pitchers with more than 2,000 strikeouts, the two with the most realistic chance are Chris Sale and Gerrit Cole. However, it's far from a sure thing for either of them.
Sale has a 33.3% chance in these odds, which were developed exclusively for Rotowire. If it were offered as a prop bet, that would translate to +200 odds at sportsbook apps. The 36-year old Sale has 2,528 strikeouts. Theoretically, he could get there within a couple of seasons. However, the left-hander has an injury history. Sale threw 177.2 innings with the Atlanta Braves last season on his way to the first Cy Young Award of his career. That was his most innings since 2017.
He was leading the NL with 11.5 strikeouts per 9 innings this season, but just went to the 60-day IL on July 1.
Cole, of the New York Yankees, turns 35 in September and is out this season after having Tommy John surgery in March. When he returns in 2026, he'll be just 749 strikeouts away from 3,000. However, it remains to be seen how effective he'll be on the mound upon his return.
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Young Stars with 3,000 Strikeout Potential
In a way, it's ironic that there might never be another pitcher to reach 3,000 strikeouts because there have never been as many Ks in the game. According to data from Baseball-Reference.com, teams have averaged striking out eight or more times in a game every year since 2016. The rate has stayed above eight even after the NL implemented the designated hitter permanently in 2022.
However, the increase in strikeouts has come as pitchers have started throwing harder and putting more spin on the ball. That puts more stress on a pitcher's arm and is part of the reason fewer starters pitch deep into games. Batters are also seeing more pitchers in each game and each season, meaning they can't get as familiar with any pitcher's tendencies.
Tarik Skubal, last year's AL Cy Young winner, is arguably the best pitcher in the game right now. He led the AL with 228 strikeouts last season, when he threw a career high 192 innings. He also leads the AL this season with 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
The Detroit Tigers ace has 786 strikeouts in his career. However, he turns 29 in the offseason. Let's assume he stays healthy and matches last season's 228 Ks. That would give him 876. He would need to maintain that pace of 228 per season for more than nine seasons to get to 3,000.
The best-case scenario for another pitcher to get to 3,000 would likely be someone who made it to the majors early, stayed healthy and kept up a pace of at least 200 strikeouts a season. Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates fits the bill.
Skenes just turned 23 and has 285 strikeouts in his first 244 innings in the bigs, an average of 10.5 Ks per nine innings. If he can average 230 a season and stays healthy, he could reach 3,000 strikeouts in about 12 years. Bump the strikeout rate down to 200 a season, and he'll need nearly 14 years.
It is possible for Skenes or Skubal or somebody to get there. Whether it's probable, time will tell.
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