Top 400 Fantasy Baseball Prospects: Updated Rankings & Mailbag

The RotoWire Top 400 Prospect Rankings, ETAs and team top 20s are fully updated! The dynasty rankings should be fully updated in the middle of next week.

Per usual, here's the RotoWire Prospect Podcast Mailbag episode, and then the written version. My thanks to everyone who asked a question on Discord, Twitter or Bluesky. 

TN: Are these rankings based more off the potential for real-life impact or fantasy impact?

They are strictly intended for dynasty leagues. The biggest difference between these fantasy rankings and real-life rankings is catchers and starting pitchers are typically ranked much higher on real-life lists, and in fantasy, we don't care about a prospect turning into a utility infielder or long reliever, so upside gets prioritized. 

Beerbot: Where do the tiers start and end?

Tier One: Roman Anthony (1)

Tier Two: Konnor Griffin (2) - JJ Wetherholt (11)

Tier Three: Lazaro Montes (12) - Edward Florentino (32)

Tier Four: Ethan Holliday (33) - Xavier Isaac (68)

Tier Five: Jack Perkins (69) - Kohl Drake (119)

Tier Six: Enrique Bradfield (120) - Winston Santos (194)

Then it really opens up from there. I strongly encourage browsing the best prospects available and looking for the right kind of prospect for your specific tastes and roster. I'm in one league where there's just a massive premium on starting pitchers who have excellent ratios, where I added Kendry Chourio (KC) over a bunch of higher ranked prospects just because you have to act fast on those types of pitching breakouts, but I'm in other leagues where I'd never roster a pitcher in rookie ball.

James Judge: Seven of the top 11 are shortstops. That in and of itself devalues them all to me. Dime a dozen...

I think you're missing the mark if you think having too many teenage shortstops is a problem. Let's look at the shortstops in question:

Konnor Griffin (PIT) -- still seeing time in center field at High-A

Sebastian Walcott (TEX) -- seeing time at third base at Double-A

Leo De Vries (SD) -- could have to move to second base

Kevin McGonigle (DET) -- only recently started getting projected to stick at shortstop, but he could still move to second base at some point down the road

Jesus Made (MIL) -- seeing time at second and third base at Single-A

Luis Pena (MIL) -- seeing time at second and third base at Single-A, and obviously Made and Pena won't both play SS for the Brewers, and it's possible neither unseats Cooper Pratt (MIL) 

JJ Wetherholt (STL) -- Masyn Winn is the Cardinals shortstop of the future

Being a shortstop when you're 18 or 19 doesn't mean you're going to be a shortstop when you're 23 or 24, but it does mean you're one of the best athletes of your age group. A lot of the big league third baseman, second baseman and even outfielders we roster in fantasy played shortstop as teenagers, and if you've got several of these shortstops in the top 11, you can trade them for anything you want.

Datthew Myer: Criminal to have so many SS above JJ Wetherholt (STL)...

I understand the case for preferring Wetherholt over a few of the younger players ahead of him, especially in leagues where you don't have to roster the best 17- and 18-year-olds as soon as they show anything. I love Wetherholt, I just think he's going to settle in as a fourth or fifth rounder in fantasy during his prime. Coming into the year, Wetherholt compared similarly to guys like Matt Shaw (CHC), Luke Keaschall (MIN) and Travis Bazzana (CLE), and of those four, Wetherholt has the prettiest numbers right now because he's been healthy and facing minor-league pitching, but it would feel like an overreaction to push him past the guys with first-round upside like Konnor Griffin (PIT), Sebastian Walcott (TEX) and Jesus Made (MIL).

FantasyBaseballGuy: Why is it that Leo De Vries (SD) gets such high rankings in most prospect circles including yours even with so-so stats? I have him on my farm (together with Jesus Made (MIL) and Luis Pena (MIL)) and have debated whether I should replace him with someone like Mike Sirota (LAD), Eduardo Quintero (LAD) or Edward Florentino (PIT)...

Age/level is probably the main answer here. De Vries is the same age as Pena and Florentino and over a year older than Quintero, yet he's the one who opened the year at High-A, while none of those players have played a game at High-A. I know you're already rostering Made and Pena, but odds are you'd want to move off of one or both of them if they'd been at High-A all year. That doesn't mean De Vries is definitely going to be better than Sirota, Quintero and Florentino, but I don't think De Vries has been so middling as to move behind those guys, given his age/level.

Camposite: Nice jump there for Lazaro Montes (SEA). It seemed to be somewhat en vogue to comp him to Yordan Alvarez a year or so ago, is that still a realistic ceiling?

No, I don't think so. You can look at the contact and swinging-strike rates of Alvarez vs. Montes in the mid-minors and it's not close between the two. Alvarez is 70-grade hit, 70-grade power and 40-grade durability. Montes has a chance to be a 45- or 50-grade hitter with 70-grade power, which is more along the lines of Matt Olson or Kyle Schwarber.

J3KDF: For 2026, do you see Lazaro Montes (SEA) breaking camp as a starting outfielder, a September call-up, or sometime during the summer?

I don't see him breaking camp next year or being up in April after they've secured a seventh year of club control. He should spend the rest of this year at Double-A and then open at Triple-A next year. If he performs as he has so far at Double-A, we could see him get the call around when Cole Young did this year (end of May), but it's possible he's still at Triple-A a year from now.

Bob Witmer: Who does Sal Stewart (CIN) compare to and how do you see it playing out next year vs Noelvi Marte?

I don't have a great Sal Stewart comp, but just in terms of fantasy expectations, I'm expecting Jordan Westburg with a higher OBP during his prime. The big thing I always stress with Stewart, who I've been high on for a long time, is that there's more power coming and probably less speed coming than what he's shown in the minors. His hit tool and command of the zone gives him such a high floor, and he's the type of hitter who will really take advantage of Great American Ball Park -- he could be an 18-22 homer hitter in a neutral park but could be a 25-plus homer hitter in Cincinnati. In terms of Stewart vs. Noelvi, it might be Noelvi he's competing with, it might be Spencer Steer, I'm just not worried about it given Stewart's ability to play first, second and third.

Yoel: Eduardo Quintero (LAD) continues climbing, how close is he to Jesus Made (MIL), Leo De Vries (SD) and Luis Pena (MIL)?

No. 28 overall is the highest Quintero has ever been, but he's only climbing marginally on the rankings because he's just beating up on Single-A pitching while he awaits an opening at High-A. He is a tier below Made and Pena because he's over a year older than Pena and almost two years older than Made and doesn't have more power or speed than those guys. 

Coco: Would love a minute or so just breaking down what has everyone so excited about this Edward Florentino (PIT) fella...

Bob May: Could you touch on where you think Edward Florentino (PIT) plays in the majors

I feel like I've got egg on my face a bit with Florentino, because Alex Jensen and I were talking about how much he was striking out at the time of the last update — he was hitting .211 with a 38.1 percent strikeout rate as an 18-year-old in complex ball — and since then, he's arguably been the most productive hitter in all of rookie/Single-A. The big reason he got such a vote of confidence is the massive hit tool gains. He was a known power/speed guy coming into the year, but I'm shocked to see him sitting at Single-A with an 85.1 percent contact rate and 5.7 percent swinging-strike rate. There's shades of Kristian Campbell from last year, where if you just eliminate the hit tool questions from before the year, he stacks up with any prospect just in terms of 2025 performance. There are also shades of Julio Rodriguez, where I think it's possible evaluators are pushing him to a corner (and in Florentino's case even first base) prematurely. Florentino has a similar frame to Rodriguez and has always moved well for his size, so I'm not completely ruling out him surprising people and sticking in center, and I do think he'll at least be an option in an outfield corner.

Coco: There being no down arrows for Andrew Painter (PHI) or Bubba Chandler (PIT) essentially already answers you're not too worried about them but would love another moment or two to touch on Painter's return from TJS and Bubba Chandler's BB% being almost at 12%...

I wouldn't use the phrase "not too worried", but I'm obviously less worried than I am about guys like Quinn Mathews (STL) and Noah Schultz (CHW), who did have big falls. Painter is such a rare case, given how much time he missed and the expectations he came back to, I really wanted to avoid overreacting to his struggles at Triple-A. With Chandler, he's obviously had an up and down season, but on his best days he still shows the upside that had him ranked as the No. 2 pitching prospect coming into the year behind Roki Sasaki (LAD). Painter and Chandler were two of the more difficult prospects to rank on this update.

Phillystars: Why did Josue De Paula (LAD) and Zyhir Hope (LAD) drop?

I wasn't aware of De Paula being a faller until I saw the down arrow on the update, so I didn't set out to lower him, he just got passed by guys who have been improving their stock while his stock has remained steady since the last update. 

Wotton: Is Zyhir Hope's (LAD) slight drop due to the new draftees or is it based on performance? 

Leo Kelser: Can you talk about the double down arrows for Zyhir Hope (LAD) and explain your thoughts on ranking him behind Mike Sirota (LAD) and Eduardo Quintero (LAD)?

Jared Hyman: Why the drop on Zyhir Hope? Any idea on how the LAD OF logjam sorts out with promotions? Seems like promoting Josue De Paula, Hope and Mike Sirota at the same time would make sense and give Eduardo Quintero some runway...

I did intentionally drop Hope a little on this update just because I felt pretty good about having him fourth of those four Dodgers outfielders. He's striking out more than I'd like, and he projects to offer less defensive value than Quintero or Sirota, so I think Hope is the most likely of the four to get traded and the most likely to get platooned. Hope still has a chance to be a 30-HR/15-steal OF in his best years, so the sky isn't falling or anything, I just expected him to be making more contact (67.8 Contact%, 13.7 SwStr%).

Neil Mills: Which prospects do you think have the best shot at 30 or even 40 homers?

Prospects with the best chance to hit 30-plus homers in a MLB season: Roman Anthony (BOS), Samuel Basallo (BAL), Lazaro Montes (SEA), Bryce Eldridge (SF), Ryan Clifford (NYM), Owen Caissie (CHC), Xavier Isaac (TB), Spencer Jones (NYY), Rainiel Rodriguez (STL), Cam Collier (CIN), Josue De Paula (LAD)

If I had to pick three of those players to hit 40-plus home runs in a season, I'd go with Basallo, Montes and Rodriguez, with Eldridge missing out just because of Oracle Park.

Bob May: How high is Jonah Tong's (NYM) upside?

No. 2 starter on a great team in a great park.

Luke Anderson: Can you touch on Jack Perkins (ATH) and Tanner McDougal's (CHW) profiles? Do you have a comp for either of them?

All comps are tough and pitcher comps are especially tough, but I think Perkins and McDougal could be two of the better buys right now in dynasty. 

Perkins still doesn't get enough credit for how excellent he was pitching in the Pacific Coast League this year. If you look at almost any other legit PCL pitching prospect, the numbers are ugly, but you wouldn't even have know Perkins was pitching in the PCL by his numbers. His fastball is excellent, a mid-90s pitch with ideal movement, and he's got a plus sweeper. The A's have eased him into a long relief role, but he's going to be in their rotation all year next year.

McDougal had always been hanging around the White Sox top 20, but his command took a big step forward this year to go with a potentially 70-grade fastball and 70-grade curveball. Perkins and McDougal both have high-upside profiles, minus their team situations, but that probably leads to them being undervalued.

Russ Hinnen: Curious your thoughts on Ryan Waldschmidt (ARI). I was suprised to see him drop so much despite holding his own after the promotion to AA, with the power, K and BB rates looking good so far. Part is the new draftees. What else caused the drop?

I didn't set out to lower Waldschmidt, that's just one of those that happened via additions and other risers, so don't sweat anything there.

Jeff Casey: You are usually lower on catchers than the consensus, what stands out about Rainiel Rodriguez (STL) this early in A ball?

He has a rare combination of low strikeouts, big-time exit velocities and extreme lift-and-pull tendencies. His flyball and pull rates have been around 50 percent at each stop while keeping his strikeout rates below 19 percent, so I feel pretty good about his ability to maximize his raw power in games. It will just come down to where the AVG/OBP settlesw and whether he's a catcher or a designated hitter (I'm hoping for the latter just to avoid wear and tear on his body). 

Steve Hemke: Which catchers starting with Rainiel Rodriguez (STL) through Thayron Liranzo (DET) have most top-end upside? Lots of catchers in this range to choose from...

The catchers in this range:

Rainiel Rodriguez (STL), Josue Briceno (DET, will likely move to 1B), Kyle Teel (CHW), Harry Ford (SEA), Joe Mack (MIA), Cooper Ingle (CLE), Carter Jensen (KC), Moises Ballesteros (CHC, may only play DH), Eduardo Tait (PHI), Thayron Liranzo (DET)

The easy answer is Rodriguez, who is the youngest of those catchers and who I think easily has the highest ceiling, as essentially a Samuel Basallo (BAL) type who may just play DH every day. I think of Briceno as a first baseman, although he'd be next. Ford has a very high ceiling if he gets traded somewhere like Tampa Bay or San Diego where he could be the catcher of the future and play in a less pitcher-friendly home park, but Ford's ceiling isn't that high as long as he remains in Seattle. I think Ingle and Jensen have higher ceilings than some realize. Jensen has a shot at being a 25-plus homer catcher, and Ingle could be Ivan Herrera 2.0.

Parker: Hearing rumors Alejandro Rosario (TEX) hasn't had Tommy John surgery yet. Any news on this, I would have assumed he should have had already... Is this factored into his ranking and is this true?

Yes, he still hasn't had the procedure. I've since lowered him to just outside the top 100, because this is a notable enough development that it does affect my valuation of him. It would seem that at the very least Rosario is displaying poor judgement in addition to his return timeline now being completely up in the air, and I'm not sure what else is going on behind the scenes.

Ashton Gilmore: Interested in where Hector Rodriguez (CIN) has moved up to and your thoughts on his trajectory. He's basically dominated every stop on his rise. I'm mostly asking because I value him similarly to Sal Stewart (CIN), but there's a pretty big gap between them...

There are three factors working in Stewart's favor over Rodriguez -- Rodriguez won't provide defensive value, he doesn't work the count and he'll probably get platooned. Rodriguez is always near the top of the swing-rate leaderboards and he does plenty of damage, so it's easy to see why he swings so often, but I expect him to make contact with a lot of pitchers' pitches early in the big leagues that will suppress the amount of damage he does. Stewart isn't a plus defender, but he can play multiple infield positions and won't get platooned, and I think he'll get to as much or more power in the majors than Rodriguez because of the quality of his approach. 

ChzBeef: Do you have anything on Marconi German (WAS) or Handelfry Encarnacion (MIL) beyond the stat lines they're putting up? Age/level looking great but I always struggle to figure out which prospects are for real at the complex levels -- particularly DSL which seems less heavily covered...

Everyone is still waiting on the proprietary complex-league exit velocity data to get leaked, so these were just calculated shots on German and Encarnacion based on the info we can all see. German is checking all the boxes he can check thus far and has a lot of fans, so I at least think this ranking is roughly in line with his trade value.

Eddy Almaguer: Love the love for Handelfry Encarnacion (MIL). Curious how'd you land on his rank, particularly when he's been merely okay the last month or so...

Well, I didn't factor in his last month, I factored in his whole season, since it basically all happened since my last update. I love that he's a young 18 and leading the ACL in doubles, with the scouting reports praising his bat speed and foot speed while giving him a chance to stick in center field. He might not be a high-OBP guy, but Jackson Chourio never projected to be one either. I think we at least know there's bat-to-ball skills to go with the power and speed, so Encarnacion seems like a nice flyer who might still be out there in mid-sized leagues.

McRyan59: Is Tyson Lewis' (CIN) drop due to entries above him, do you see signs of concern or is it just more of a proximity thing?

Josh Noah: What's the scoop on Tyson Lewis (CIN)? Thought he would be top 100 based on scouting reports from ACL

I didn't set out to drop Lewis, he just hasn't done anything to help his cause since the last update. There's no reason for a 19-year-old shortstop who got a seven-figure bonus to still be in rookie ball, and his 25.7 percent strikeout rate portends some notable swing-and-miss when he gets to Single-A. He's a boom-or-bust prospect until we see him get his feet under him in full-season ball.

Greg T: Trying to add a couple players in your new top 100 that are available in my 18 team points league, Cooper Ingle (CLE) and Marconi German (WAS). Problem is all my other prospects are in the top 100 too so I'm looking at the end of my bench for players to drop. I've got three struggling young bats in Mark Vientos, Max Muncy (ATH) and Brett Baty. Do you see any of those three dropping significantly in your next dynasty rankings?

I'd consider dropping Muncy for Ingle (if you could really use a catcher, not just to add a 4th or 5th C) or German (if you just care about upside and weren't really using Muncy before his injury).

Dlewisbuilds: Which prospects do you have the most shares of?

Sebastian Walcott (TEX), Sal Stewart (CIN), Zyhir Hope (LAD), Carlos Lagrange (NYY), Tanner McDougal (CHW), Michael McGreevy (STL), Michael Forret (BAL), Yoniel Curet (TB), Tai Peete (SEA), RJ Schreck (TOR), Ethan Dorchies (MIL), Connor Prielipp (MIN), Coleman Crow (MIL), Jose Urbina (TB), Josh Ekness (MIA)

MancBaseball: Braden Nett (SD) was good in June and was getting positive write-ups from BA, Chris Clegg and others. I'd have thought he might be ranked with Jaxon Wiggins (CHC), JR Ritchie (ATL), Tanner McDougal (CHW). Is it Nett's very recent performances that accounts for his low ranking?

John Vaghi: No Braden Nett (SD)?

Nett was a tough omission -- there were about 30 prospects I wanted to include and just didn't have room for. However, I added Nett back to the rankings Wednesday night to replace Angel Cervantes, who isn't signing with the Pirates and is instead heading to UCLA. If you go back to mid-May, Nett's got a 1.50 WHIP, but he does have strikeout stuff and is in a good situation to get opportunities to start without much high-end internal competition.

Jeffrey Lipack: No Chris Rodriguez (DET)?

Pthomae: Cris Rodriguez (DET), surprised he was not listed in top 400?

Rodriguez has big-time raw power, but a 0.21 BB/K (23.2 K%, 4.8 BB%) in the Dominican Summer League is pretty scary to me. The pitching there is terrible and guys can't throw strikes, so to only be walking 4.8 percent of the time while also stirking out over 20 percent of the time tells me he's got contact issues and swing decision issues that will be exposed by better pitching.

Matthew King: What happened to Jose Anderson (MIL)? He was hovering around Top 100 on your last update and now I can't find him. Accident or did he really fall that far?

He's a corner bat with a 32.6 K% and 66 wRC+ as an age-appropriate player at Single-A, so I think it's a pretty easy churn, especially given the amount of quality position player prospects in the Brewers' system. Anderson was arguably the best hitter in the Arizona Complex League before his promotion, so I did try to keep him on the list, but like Nett, he was one of the last cuts on the initial update.