FanDuel NBA: Thursday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Thursday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

Aside from a down night from Zion Williamson Wednesday night, our recommendations yielded a nice profit. Let's see if we can keep the ball rolling with tonight's six-game slate, which begins at 7:00 p.m. ET.

SLATE OVERVIEW

DAL @ DET (+9) O/U: 216

BKN @ IND (+9.5) O/U: 240

MIL @ HOU (+13.5) O/U: 233.5

GSW @ MIN (+5.5) O/U: 235.5

NOR @ OKC (+9.5) O/U: 229.5

TOR @ DEN (-4.5) O/U: 224.5

Odds and lines are best available US numbers and are subject to change

Games to Target in BOLD

Games to Fade in ITALICS

INJURIES

DAL Luka Doncic (elbow) - QUESTIONABLE

DAL Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

DAL Dorian Finney-Smith (leg) - QUESTIONABLE

DAL Josh Richardson (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE

DAL Maxi Kleber (back) - QUESTIONABLE

Luckily, the Mavs-Pistons matchup is the first game on the slate, so we should have a better idea of who's in for the Mavs as we approach game lock. Doncic should be a go as he's played through his injury, but Porzingis is a bigger question mark.

As I've written in previous articles, there are just too many options for a Porzingis pivot, as it's difficult to tell who Rick Carlisle would go with if an absence occurs. There should be some secondary value if some of these role players skip a game, and Jalen Brunson ($4,700) would see a boost if Richardson is out. Tim Hardaway ($4,200) is healthy, as well, and would also benefit from multiple absences.

DET Jerami Grant - REST

DET Mason Plumlee - REST

DET Cory Joseph - REST

DET Wayne Ellington - REST

It looks like Detroit is waving the white flag already in this one, but that doesn't mean that the Pistons can't help us. Quite the contrary, in fact. We can hunt down some great value on this spot. Isaiah Stewart ($5,900) is already a proven pivot for Plumlee, and Josh Jackson ($5,600) and Saddiq Bey ($5,100) will help fill the hole left by Grant. Killian Hayes ($3,600) will be the primary guy for Joseph and don't be surprised if we see an extended run for Hamidou Diallo ($3,800), who has been grossly underutilized up to this point.

IND Domantas Sabonis (back) - OUT

IND Myles Turner (toe) - OUT

IND Jeremy Lamb (illness) - QUESTIONABLE

IND Goga Bitadze (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

A return for Bitadze would give the Pacers a much-needed dose of frontcourt relief, but if he remains out, they will continue to run with a combo of Oshae Brissett ($6,800), JaKarr Sampson ($3,800), Edmond Sumner ($5,300) and a bit of Justin Holiday ($4,100) to bridge the frontcourt gap. Of this group, it could be Sumner's turn to pop. It's best to ignore his line in the Portland blowout, which leaves two excellent games in the 30-PF range.

Although Brissett's salary has ballooned, I see no reason why he can't keep things rolling against Brooklyn. I would favor Sumner, Brissett and Holiday, in that order. Sampson hasn't demonstrated a steady floor as of yet. I also want to throw out Caris LeVert ($8,100) in this grouping as well. This game will be the fastest on the slate, and LeVert thrives in those scenarios as a transition catalyst.

GSW Kelly Oubre (wrist) - DOUBTFUL

It appears that Kent Bazemore ($5,300) is healthy again, so he will settle in Oubre's spot. An absence for Oubre is usually a positive sign for Andrew Wiggins ($6,700), who is in a mini-revenge game against his former team.

NOR Steven Adams (toe) - QUESTIONABLE

Adams defied expectations and tried to give it a go Wednesday night, but his toe couldn't take it, and he left the game early. It's reasonable to think that they will rest him on the back-to-back, which makes Willy Hernangomez ($4,900) the pivot. He's a lot more intriguing tonight if Adams is out, as there were too many other options to target in Wednesday's slate.

TOR Chris Boucher (knee) - OUT

TOR Gary Trent (leg) - OUT

TOR Paul Watson(knee) - OUT

The usual starters will benefit here, and Khem Birch ($5,900) will continue to operate the center spot for the foreseeable future.

DEN (back-to-back)

Keep an eye on some possible rest here.

ELITE PLAYERS

Due to the small slate, we are sliding down into the 8 k range for elite picks and through the 8k range for chalk plays.

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11.200) and Luka Doncic ($11,000) top the slate tonight with lofty salaries. They both have injury tags, but both are expected to suit up. They are also fortunate because they are playing against awful teams. For fantasy purposes, that isn't so great due to the blowout potential. Detroit is fielding a depleted lineup, but their offering could very well be more of a challenge than Houston will be for the Bucks.

The Mavericks could have many absences of their own, so despite holding a lower game total, Doncic may be the better option here. Giannis has yet to meet the Rockets, but he is notorious for fading in blowout games. Both players are impossible to fade in MME builds, but I think they are largely interchangeable tonight. Your other five-digit options are Nikola Jokic ($10,900) and Kyrie Irving ($10,000). They are also both excellent options, but you should probably have more of Irving, as there are several value center options that will help out your bottom line. 

As we move down, we fall to Stephen Curry ($9,600) – one of my favorite options against the Timberwolves. The Warriors looked awful against Dallas, but they should successfully rebound against a much weaker team, and Curry's floor and upside are as high as ever.

My second-favorite spot is Kevin Durant ($9,300). With the minutes restriction gone, you have to fire up one of the most talented two-way threats in the game at this salary tag. Against Indiana's depleted frontcourt, he should match high shot volume with an excellent rebound total.

 Expectations should be tempered a bit for Zion Williamson ($9,400) and Michael Porter ($8,000), as they are both on a back-to-back. Still, Porter is at a great price, and Zion faces the Thunder, so they have to get some exposure in bulk-entry builds. For the money, Malcolm Brogdon, Christian Wood, and Kelly Olynyk are all a little too expensive for my taste, but Pascal Siakam ($8,700) is priced appropriately and invaluable to a frontcourt that's playing without Chris Boucher

Also consider: Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($9,700) vs. GSW

EXPECTED CHALK

Draymond Green, GSW ($7,400) @ MIN

Green seems to get things done in even the worst of scenarios, with the recent Dallas game being the perfect example. Despite the thrashing the Warriors received, Green snagged 11 rebounds and salvaged a passable line, despite poor shooting night. The matchup for them tonight is exponentially better. He didn't get much done in a two-game tilt against them back in January, but Green had yet to take on the role he has now.

D'Angelo Russell, MIN ($6,900) vs. GSW

Although he's not yet back in the starting lineup, he's averaging around 30 minutes per game at this point. Anthony Edwards is in a bit of a rookie slump at the moment, so Russell should be called upon to help the Wolves out against Stephen Curry. I doubt Russell with go shot-for-shot with Curry, but his price tag is a good way to get involved in one of the fastest games on the slate.

Kyle Lowry, TOR ($6,400) @ DEN

I have no issue with Fred VanVleet ($7,800), but Lowry has the upside to outscore his teammate for $1,300 less. Lowry's floor is right where it should be at this price, and he's often shown the ability to surge above his 30 FP baseline. The Nuggets could be a bit gassed tonight, and Lowry could see some open looks opposite youngster Facundo Campazzo, who's yet to meet Lowry and won't know how to guard him.

Jae'Sean Tate, HOU ($6,700) vs. MIL

Tate has become one of the linchpins of Houston's offense, and as long as he can register double-digit shot volume, he should be able to convert enough baskets to go along with a sizable rebound total against The Bucks. I also favor Tate if the game gets out of hand, as the Rockets are keen to give him as much experience as possible.

Also consider: Jrue Holiday, MIL ($7,500) @ HOU, OG Anunoby, TOR ($7,200) @ DEN

FADE ALERT: Lonzo Ball ($6,700)

No one can deny Ball's stupendous run of games, but if you look at the numbers, Ball can fade into obscurity in back-to-back games. There have been only two games this season in which his tail-end total beat his front-end total in a back-to-back. His recent hot streak may be able to buck that trend, but the numbers don't lie. Trust the data and limit your exposure.

VALUE PLAYS

There are several value options in the injury section, and if you wait on Dallas' lineup, you'll probably find a couple more than we mentioned. We've included some additional value options to target below.

Kevin Porter, HOU ($5,600) vs. MIL

With John Wall shut down for the season, the Rockets will continue to roll with Porter, who's fared reasonably well despite Houston's woeful April. Porter has struggled with his shot recently, but his volume is very high. If he can get his shooting stroke in order, he has the ability to put up 20 or more points. With a few additional rebounds, he could put up a desirable total at this salary point.

Trey Burke, DAL ($4,200) @ DET

Burke actually started in place of Josh Richardson in their last game against the Warriors, and he followed up a solid 34 FP bench performance with a respectable 25 FP total as a starter. Both numbers decimated his salary value on those evenings, and he's still priced affordably tonight. I'd almost prefer him to play with the second unit because Burke would be a prime candidate for garbage time if things get out of hand.

Also consider: Frank Jackson, DET ($3,900) vs. DAL

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Edgerton
Jeff has provided sports content for numerous sports outlets and has played fantasy sports since scores had to be tabulated via newspaper. He started working with RotoWire in 2017. Originally from South Carolina, he's a lifelong Clemson fan now enjoying the sun in Los Angeles.
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