Most head-to-head leagues culminate in an end of the season playoffs. Unfortunately, most fantasy general managers only think of getting into the playoffs and neglect to consider the NBA schedule during those weeks.
Let's take a look at every team's schedule for the playoffs this year:
14 GAMES: (6 teams) (20|PERCENT| of the league)
There are six teams with 14 games during the playoffs. These are the teams that will help you the most. Moving these players up a few spots on your draft board is worth consideration, but there is no need to overreach just because of their playoff schedule.
Houston Rockets
Week 22: 4 games
Week 23: 4 games
Week24-25: 6 games
Key Players: Luis Scola, Aaron Brooks, Shane Battier, Trevor Ariza, Tracy McGrady
Milwaukee Bucks
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 4 games
W 24-25: 6 games
Key Players: Michael Redd, Andrew Bogut
Oklahoma City Thunder
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 4 games
W 24-25: 6 games
Key Players: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green
San Antonio Spurs
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 4 games
W 24-25: 6 games
Key Players: Tim Duncan, Emmanuel Ginobili, Tony Parker, Richard Jefferson
Toronto Raptors
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 4 games
W 24-25: 6 games
Key Players: Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, Hidayet Turkoglu
Washington Wizards
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 4 games
W 24-25: 6 games
Key Players: Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison
13 GAMES: (7 teams) (23|PERCENT| of the league)
When you get past the 14-game teams who all play schedules of four-four-and-six game weeks in the playoffs, there are different theories to consider in regards to weighted scheduling. Which week of the playoffs is the most important? Is the second round more important, the first, or vice versa. For the sake of my argument, I have arranged the following teams in order of my perceived belief of playoff schedule weight.
Every manager should have three goals heading into the playoffs: 1. Win the first round. 2. Win the second round. 3. Win the league. That thought process may seem pedantic, but many teams overlook the fact that you can't make grape jelly without grapes. By default, the most important round of the playoffs is the first round, the second is the second most important and the third the third.
Working off of that mindset, Dallas and New Jersey are the best 13 game teams and Charlotte is the worst. Dallas and New Jersey each have four games in the first and second round of the playoffs. Charlotte is the only 13-game team without four games in the first round.
Dallas Mavericks
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 4 games
W 24-25: 5 games
Key Players: Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, Jason Terry, Josh Howard
New Jersey Nets
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 4 games
W 24-25: 5 games
Key Players: Devin Harris, Brook Lopez, Courtney Lee
Atlanta Hawks
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 6 games
Key Players: Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Mike Bibby
Boston Celtics
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 6 games
Key Players: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo
Chicago Bulls
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 6 games
Key Players: Derrick Rose, John Salmons, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng
Golden State Warriors
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 6 games
Key Players: Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Andris Biedrins, Anthony Randolph, Corey Maggette
Charlotte Bobcats
W 22: 3 games
W 23: 4 games
W 24-25: 6 games
Key Players: Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, Raymond Felton, Tyson Chandler, D.J. Augustin
12 GAMES: (14 teams) (47|PERCENT| of the league)
Nearly half of the league plays 12 games over the three playoff rounds. That means that drafting players from these teams neither helps nor hurts your playoffs game total. These players are all neutral. Their draft positions should remain the same on your draft boards.
I ranked the 12-game teams using the same method as was used for the 13-game teams. The first round is the most important, then the second and third. Some of the 12-game teams at the bottom of the list (Pistons, Grizzlies, Sixers) have six games in the third round, compared to the five games all of the other 12-game teams have. That extra game loses significance because the third round is played during the final week-and-a-half of the NBA's regular season. Teams who are out of contention or who have already secured their playoff spot will rest players during that time, or shut players down altogether. That's why the third round of fantasy basketball playoffs are so different from the first and second, and, unfortunately, there is no way for us to plan for those circumstances at draft time.
Denver Nuggets
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 5 games
Key Players: Chauncey Billups, Carmelo Anthony, Nene Hilario, J.R. Smith
Indiana Pacers
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 5 games
Key Players: Danny Granger, Troy Murphy, T.J. Ford, Brandon Rush, Mike Dunleavy Jr.
Miami Heat
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 5 games
Key Players: Dwyane Wade, Mario Chalmers, Michael Beasley, Jermaine O'Neal
Minnesota Timberwolves
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 5 games
Key Players: Al Jefferson, Kevin Love, Jonny Flynn
Orlando Magic
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 5 games
Key Players: Dwight Howard, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson
Sacramento Kings
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 5 games
Key Players: Kevin Martin, Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson,
Utah Jazz
W 22: 4 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 5 games
Key Players: Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Paul Millsap, Andrei Kirilenko
Los Angeles Clippers
W 22: 3 games
W 23: 4 games
W 24-25: 5 games
Key Players: Baron Davis, Marcus Camby, Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Blake Griffin, Al Thornton
Los Angeles Lakers
W 22: 3 games
W 23: 4 games
W 24-25: 5 games
Key Players: Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, Ron Artest
Phoenix Suns
W 22: 3 games
W 23: 4 games
W 24-25: 5 games
Key Players: Amare Stoudemire, Steve Nash, Jason Richardson, Grant Hill, Channing Frye
Detroit Pistons
W 22: 3 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 6 games
Key Players: Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Rodney Stuckey
Memphis Grizzlies
W 22: 3 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 6 games
Key Players: Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo, Zach Randolph, Allen Iverson, Mike Conley, Marc Gasol
Philadelphia 76ers
W 22: 3 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 6 games
Key Players: Andre Iguodala, Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young, Louis Williams
11 GAMES: (3 teams) (10|PERCENT| of the league)
This is where the playoff schedule gets really interesting. Chris Paul and Lebron James are on teams with only 11 games during the fantasy playoffs, the worst possible schedule for the fantasy playoffs, and they're also the top two fantasy players taken in nearly every fantasy draft.
New Orleans Hornets
W 22: 3 games
W 23: 4 games
W 24-25: 4 games
Key Players: Chris Paul, David West, Emeka Okafor
Cleveland Cavaliers
W 22: 3 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 5 games
Key Players: LeBron James, Maurice Williams, Shaquille ONeal
Portland Trailblazers
W 22: 3 games
W 23: 3 games
W 24-25: 5 games
Key Players: Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden
HOW TO USE THIS TOOL:
So, how do LeBron James and Chris Paul's fantasy playoff schedules influence their draft stock?
They don't. This is where the tool's limitations are glaringly exposed. There is value in drafting and knowing the intricacies of the fantasy playoff schedules, but it shouldn't lead you to defy conventional draft strategies in any significant way. You should still draft Paul and James with the first two picks. The only relative pick you could move up and argue to take as the first pick over James or Paul, due to a better playoff schedule, is Kevin Durant. However, the improvement of one game per week over the course of the playoffs doesn't outweigh the importance of James and Paul's contributions throughout the season.
Your first priority while drafting is to construct a team that will make the playoffs. The time to use this tool is when you are given the conundrum of drafting two similar players, knowing the other won't be available in the next round.
Who should you take? Assuming all things equal, players' playoff schedules can help you make your decision. In the case of Tyson Chandler and Samuel Dalembert, both players provide similar statistical production and are drafted in relatively the same part of most drafts. The argument could be made to draft Chandler because he has one more playoff game than Dalembert. Another example exists in the first round with Kevin Durant and Danny Granger. Durant has two more playoff games than Granger, a fact that gives Durant much more value at the end of the season for head-to-head leagues.
IN CONCLUSION: Looking at a typical playoff team:
Using a standard league format, each team would draft 13 players. On average, each fantasy team would play 161 games during a playoff schedule. If the roster was built entirely of players who played 14 games during the playoffs, that team would play 182 games during the three rounds of playoffs. That would give the playoff-skewed team 21 more games over the three rounds of playoffs (seven games per round). While that's a significant total, its merits are lessened when considering the limitations of a team which was drafted based on the schedule and not the players' statistical production.
Most rosters will average around 161 games over the three rounds of playoffs. If you can make adept choices during your draft to increase that total, it would be to your advantage. Create a good draft board and then worry about the playoffs. After all, you have to get there first.