This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Coming off a 3-0 sweep with yesterday's picks, here are my predictions for three select games on Thursday's slimmer college hoops slate.
Michigan 
at Maryland 
Michigan limps into Thursday, dropping nine of 12 games, including its current four-game losing streak. The Wolverines still hold a respectable adjusted efficiency rating, thanks in part to their extremely difficult schedule, although this doesn't change the fact that they haven't been able to close many games against good teams. This is largely due to their horrendous defensive play, with their season-long defensive efficiency rating easily ranking the lowest among all Big Ten teams. Michigan has also failed to cover the spread in its last five consecutive games, so the team's stock is plummeting any way you look at it.
Maryland, in contrast, has played great defense, ranked third in the Big Ten in efficiency since league play started. This strength helped the Terrapins win eight of nine games from mid-November through December, and it gave them a shot at beating high-caliber teams such as Villanova and Purdue, as they held them to 57 and 67 points, respectively, although Maryland couldn't score enough points to earn a win in either game.
It's important to also note that the Terrapins hold two key advantages over the Wolverines. First, even though Michigan has an explosive offensive attack, it's also careless. The Wolverines rank 236th in offensive turnover percentage, a bad trait to have in this game because the Terrapins rank 42nd in defensive turnover percentage. The advantage also plays out in Maryland's favor going in the other direction as well, albeit not as drastically, giving us legitimate reason to think the Terrapins will win the turnover battle. Second, Maryland also has an advantage in offensive rebounding. Both teams are effective on the offensive glass, but the Terrapins are a bit better, ranking 35th in offensive rebounding percentage, again notable because the Wolverines struggle to secure defensive boards, ranking 250th in defensive rebounding. One last note -- on January 10, the media reported that Dug McDaniel, the team's leading scorer and starting point guard, has been suspended for the team's road games "until further notice," according to a statement from Michigan.
All things considered, I strongly prefer the home team with the elite defense in this case. If the teams matched up slightly differently, this decision might be different, but given the strengths of each team, and the location of the game, I have to go with Maryland. I'm laying the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Maryland -6
Gonzaga 
at Santa Clara 
On paper, it's hard to go against Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are seemingly once again on track to win the West Coast Conference and don't have many weak areas. That said, Thursday's game shouldn't be taken for granted. Gonzaga's best win came against USC back on December 2nd and otherwise hasn't defeated any teams that might make the NCAA tournament. The Bulldogs have dropped every challenging game, including their only true road game of the season, a 78-73 loss at Washington on December 9th. Thursday marks their first true road game since that loss.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, is solidly above average on both ends of the court and has already proven it capable of beating decent teams, earning victories over Stanford, Oregon and Washington State earlier in the season. The Broncos also nearly knocked off Utah State, losing by two points, so they consistently put up a fight, even if they don't always come away with the win.
When comparing these teams side-by-side, not many areas stand out. Gonzaga is slightly better in most categories, as one might expect, but otherwise doesn't appear to have any significant advantages. One interesting trait, however, is Santa Clara's size. The Broncos are the fifth-tallest in average height among all D1 teams, per KenPom, making them built to stand up to Gonzaga's frontcourt. For what it's worth, almost a year ago to this day, Gonzaga traveled to Santa Clara and survived a thriller, winning 81-76. The Broncos held a lead with under two minutes remaining, so they certainly had a fair shot at winning. I would be remiss if I didn't note that Santa Clara had a much different roster last season, although, at the same time, Gonzaga was rated much higher on the efficiency charts compared to this season. Either way, it's another reference point to consider.
If this game were in Spokane, I'd probably skip it altogether, but road trips are never easy and Santa Clara has shown it can beat a good team on any given day. Similarly, Gonzaga has consistently beat up teams for lower conferences, as we'd all expect, but it hasn't looked impressive at all when playing against more competitive teams. Santa Clara has covered the spread in four of its last six games. I'm betting it will be five of seven after Thursday. I'm taking the points with Santa Clara in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Santa Clara +9
Arizona State 
at Washington 
This matchup is a story of strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness.
When Washington has the ball, its proficient offense will meet a significant challenge in the form of Arizona State. The Sun Devils burst out of the starting gate of league play, opening the conference season with a 4-0 record, defeating Stanford, California, Utah, and Colorado. They've done it mostly thanks to top-notch defensive play, recording the second-best defensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 since league play began. The Huskies, on the other hand, rank fourth in offensive efficiency among the Pac-12 teams in the same period, giving a clear edge to Arizona State on this end of the court.
When Arizona State has the ball, its woeful offense will face an inconsistent defense in Washington. The Huskies rank 10th in the Pac-12 in defensive efficiency during the conference season, while Arizona State has been terrible at scoring for most of the season, ranking 203rd in adjusted offensive efficiency among all D1 teams. The Sun Devils have picked up the offensive pace to a small degree during their four-game win streak, averaging 76 points per game, although it was only less than a month ago that they mustered 46 total points in a loss to Northwestern, so they're offensive issues still aren't that far behind them.
The betting total for this game is a higher number, mostly because both teams prefer playing at a faster tempo, but I still like our odds with the under. As noted above, each team will likely find points hard to come by, a circumstance that often leads to lower point totals. I'm on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 152.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Maryland -6
- Santa Clara +9
- Arizona State at Washington - Under 152.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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