This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
We've got two intriguing slates Tuesday at DraftKings. Unlike a few weeks ago where they blew things out and gave us a huge pool and first place prize, it appears they are tweaking things to make multiple slates appealing. As such, lets take a stab on both the early and late slates and see what we find.
Main Slate
Nine games get us going Tuesday evening, tipping between 6:30 and 7:00 p.m. EST. We've got our typical $2,000 first place prize at stake and $10,000 overall in DK's primary tournament.
No game comes with a total under 140 points, and only three sit at 150 or greater, so we're looking at a pretty tightly packed set of games. Only Duke is a double-digit favorite, further illustrating all games are in play for fantasy purposes. Blue Devil star forward Kyle Filipowski is the slate's highest-priced player at $1,200 more than anyone else. With Duke off a loss and facing lowly Louisville, he makes all the sense in the world as a building block.
Top Players
Jayden Epps, G, Georgetown ($8,200)
Further boosting Filipowski as a must-use anchor, the rest of the top priced options don't present as slam dunks with a lot of lineups Tuesday being more balanced than star studded. Epps could be the exception, having piled up a huge 31.8 percent usage rate over his last four after missing one game due to an ankle injury. He's still volatile as the game log shows, but with two 30 point scoring outings in this stretch, and five assists or better in three of them, the floor here is around 30.0 DKP. Butler doesn't offer a pace boost, and is an above average defensive team, ranking 99th in efficiency, per KenPom. The ceiling here may not be as high as it's been recently as a result, but it's still arguably as high as anyone else on the slate.
Dawson Garcia, F, Minnesota ($7,700)
We'll keep beating on the Filipowski door, because the rest of the high-end forwards come with considerable risk. Garcia is included there, as their opponent in Wisconsin ranks 50th in defensive efficiency and 322nd in tempo. They've also got adequate frontcourt size, making for a poor matchup for Garcia. But he's still the Gophers alpha, scoring 52 points in his last two, while averaging 18.8 points and 8.0 rebounds across his last five with a 31.0 percent usage rate. It's resulted in a 27.25 DKP floor, which isn't a slate winner, but it's not a loser either.
Middle Tier
Zvonimir Ivisic, F, Kentucky ($5,900)
It's rare we get upside plays in this middle tier, especially at sub 6k prices, but I believe we've surprisingly found two here. Ivisic was just cleared to play over the weekend, and dazzled with a diverse stat line in route to 32.5 DKP in just 16 minutes. While it's unlikely he can be that effective with small minutes regularly, Kentucky's pace suggests he doesn't need huge minutes for a fair return. The Wildcats have scored at least 87 points in eight straight. Ivisic has a huge size advantage, which should lead to ample rebounds and blocks, and the expected team scoring says he can get to double-figures.
Ishmael Leggett, G, Pittsburgh ($5,400)
Leggett has been priced as high as $8,500 but we're getting a significant discount in his fourth game back after missing one due to injury. He hasn't returned to the starting five yet, but after playing 27 minutes last time out, it seems like that's on the horizon, and even if not, the minutes are that of a starter. He enjoyed a 27.9 percent usage late time out, Georgia Tech checks in at 164th in defensive efficiency, and at this price, Leggett appears to have a safe floor with a 40+ DKP ceiling if he can return to early-season form.
Bargain Options
Jamarques Lawrence, G, Nebraska ($4,900)
With ambiguity at the top of this slate, and some guys I like noted above under 6k, I don't know that we need to target super cheap options Tuesday evening, but rather live above the middle-tier names mentioned above and build a balanced lineup of safer floor players. If you're trying to get more high-end options in, Lawrence merits consideration for tournaments. He's averaged 22.38 DKP over his last two, and the Cornhuskers are expected to score north of 76 points here. The problem is the floor is incredibly low, as Lawrence put up 15.25 DKP total in his previous three games. The reward is likely less than the risk, but there is potential in the matchup while balancing our budgets.
Zachary Davis, G, South Carolina ($4,700)
Low-hanging fruit here. Davis started last game out with Myles Stute out due to a shoulder injury, played 26 minutes and provided 16.5 DKP. That opportunity will again be available here against Kentucky, and we noted the Wildcats pushing tempo and scoring previously, as they rank 10th in pace nationally. Davis doesn't have much upside, but he's a stable cheap option in this matchup. If more boom or bust is needed, consider Georgia Tech's Kyle Sturdivant.
Late Slate
Hopefully this is a sign of things to come. DraftKings has routinely offered multiple slates during the week now that we're in the heart of conference play, but Tuesday we've got a $1,000 first-place prize available for just a $5 entry. It includes six games, and tips off between 8:30 and 9:00.
Houston is on this slate which gives us an outlier in expected scoring thanks to their defensive prowess, but with a total of 135.5 points, it can't be written off. All other games sit between 144 and 153 points, so we should have a full 60 starting player to choose from with confidence. The elephant in the room here is whether or not to use Zach Edey, who is a full $2,000 more than any other player. I side with yes, use him. It's a great matchup, but for the price, he needs nearly 50 DKP to provide a fair return, which creates risk we don't necessarily need.
Top Players
Ryan Kalkbrenner, F, Creighton ($8,700)
It's a tad unnerving that Kalkbrenner is the Jays' top-priced option, but he's surging in form. We're going to want a piece of this offense at the top end given their near 78 point expected total, and Kalkbrenner has multiple paths to success. His worst game over his last five saw him produce 33.0 DKP while taking only five shots. Xavier is vulnerable on the offensive glass and has nearly 10 shots blocked per game. Kalkbrenner may not need to score more than 10 real-life points to get to 40 fantasy points if he swats and rebounds.
Braden Smith, G, Purdue ($7,700)
Smith has rapidly become one of my favorite fantasy targets. He's averaging 7.2 assists nightly, a number that's risen to 9.0 over his last four. It's sometimes challenging to bank on a player that doesn't score, but Smith flirts with triple-doubles night in and night out. Michigan doesn't play great defense, leading to Purdue's implied total of 85 points here. Smith will have his hand in all of that, and the price point doesn't require more than 30 DKP for a fair return. Smith has been under 29 fantasy points just twice since December 4.
Middle Tier
Hunter Cattoor, G, Virginia Tech ($5,900)
Cattoor feels like a safe anchor who won't win you the slate, but certainly won't lose it for you. We need 24 DKP for a fair return, and he's hit that 12 times in 17 games, failing to hit 20 DKP just four times. Twice in those "down" games, he tallied 19 or more points, and once he left with an injury and didn't suit up in his next outing. There's a super high floor here in a game where VT is anticipated to score 77 points.
Henry Coleman, F, Texas A&M ($5,300)
High risk, minimal reward here. Coleman is maddeningly inconsistent overall, but had been emerging for the Aggies with eight games of 27.5 DKP or better to date, but he's missed one game due to injury and saw just 11 minutes in his return last time out. He's trending upward, but needs more than 20 minutes here for a fair return. Perhaps this is one game early, but if he starts and gets starter minutes, he's a 4x option with 6 or even 7x return.
Bargain Options
John-Michael Wright, G, Oklahoma State ($4,100)
The Pokes aren't a fantasy-friendly team, with different pieces stepping up on different nights. But they made to changes to their starting lineup last time out, and assuming that holds Tuesday, it at least creates some cheap opportunities for us. Wright, and Connor Dow moved into the first unit against Kansas State, and while Dow saw just 19 minutes as a starter, Wright got 30. It yielded 18.75 DKP thanks to eight shot attempts, seven coming from 3-point range. TCU is sound defensively overall and against the arch, but the Horned Frogs play fast (42nd in tempo), which leads to Oklahoma State having an expected total of 70 points. If Wright again plays 30 minutes, he can't help but stumble into a 3x return or better.
Jaelin Llewellyn, G, Michigan ($4,000)
Assuming Dug McDaniel's road-game suspension remains, Llewellyn looks likely to start here, making for an immediate bargain. In McDaniel's first absence, Llewellyn started, played 33 minutes and provided 22.0 DKP, which works tremendously for this price. Nimari Burnett may be a safer option, but doesn't take on the offensive onus regardless of his teammate's availability. The Wolverines get a pace/scoring boost against Purdue here, further adding appeal.
