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Chris' Picks
It's hard times when you're celebrating a 2-3 week. Just think, if you'd faded me the entire season, you'd be hitting a cool 63.3 percent of your bets. I can't be this bad all year, right? That's what you, the reader, will have to decide. Do I finally find a few winners, or can I just be the worst handicapper of the season and still make you some money?
Colorado (-11.5) vs. Stanford (Friday)
I loathe myself for doing this, as Colorado is not good. But Stanford is worse. They've dropped four straight, with their only win coming over Hawaii, and those losses include Sacramento State and Oregon. Further, in their four losses, they've scored a combined 59 points, getting just 10 on Southern Cal's struggling defense. Their pass defense is atrocious, allowing 12 touchdowns and all but one team to throw for 274+ yards against them. They'll get points, but they can't stop Shedeur Sanders. This just feels like a spot for the Buffaloes to flex and run things up. It's an 8:00 p.m. local start; Folsom Field will be juiced in a different way than all the 10:00 AM kicks they've previously seen.
Georgia Southern (+6.5) at James Madison
Given my record this year, I'm willing to do something different, which for me is underdogs. The Eagles do one thing well, and that's throw it all over the yard, ranking ninth with 337 ypg. The 13:7 TD:INT ratio is skewed by the five picks tossed at Wisconsin, where they were competitive early. JMU offers the top rush defense in the country, which means nothing to GSU's chances. The Dukes are woeful against the pass, ranking 131st by allowing 311.4 ypg, with only Bucknell not getting them for at least 299 yards. Points will be scored here, so the total of 58.5 looks interesting, too (over). This line opened at -3.5 and is steadily trending up. I'd be content to let it rise as high as possible and back the Eagles to match points.
Texas A&M (+3.5) at Tennessee
Tennessee's offense needs balance to succeed, and they've been thriving on a strong rushing attack to set up their deep passing game, as otherwise, Joe Milton has struggled. Enter the Aggies' ninth-ranked run defense that's allowing 84.0 ypg, 2.6 ypc, and only one rushing score all season. Even when A&M gave up 48 points to Miami, they surrendered just 77 yards rushing. I find them to be elite enough up front to stop Tennessee's ground attack with four or five, allowing them to disguise coverage and force errant throws from Milton. Tennessee will hit a few shots, and there's always the worry of the road trip and post-Alabama hangover for the Aggies. But I still think they win straight up, so will happily take the field goal plus.
South Carolina (-2.5) vs. Florida
I'll get the ugly out of the way first; I don't trust South Carolina. But I trust Florida less. The lie feels inflated by their win over Tennessee, whom I'm also targeting against this week. Their other wins are over McNeese, Charlotte and Vanderbilt. I'm not impressed. They've fallen on the road to Utah and Kentucky, allowing 6.6 ypc in those games, which gives USC's rushing attack a chance at continued resurgence. They've also won just two conference road games in two years. If the Gamecocks can find balance with a ground attack, Spencer Rattler and Xavier Legette will get it done in the air and win this going away.
Troy (-4) at Army
I'm worried I'm writing/publishing this too late as this opened at -2 and has promptly moved way up, with -4 only available sporadically at this point. But this feels simple; Troy ranks 11th against the run, allowing 84.3 ypg and 2.8 ypc. They've allowed 105 yards or less on the ground in each of their wins, and only Kansas State has gone for more than 146 yards against them all year. Last week, Army was favored over Boston College, which frankly made no sense and was a missed opportunity for me. The Trojans have won their last two games by a combined 65-10, seem to have righted their season, and I look for them to keep rolling. I'll take this up to -6.5.
Last week: 2-3; Season 11-19
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Greg's Picks
We're back on track with another winning week, but our hopes for a solid 4-1 week were dashed by some offensive ineptitude, which we'll get to in a moment.
The week started on a low note, with a loss on the over in the KSU/OSU game. KSU was out of sorts all night, as its normally reliable passing game was just terrible. A solid bounce back to start Saturday morning with Oklahoma not only covering but winning outright. A very fortunate cover from Ohio State followed. The Buckeyes were sluggish most of the game but turned it up late, outscoring Maryland 27-7 in the second half. Another winner followed with the under in the Alabama game. If you had this one, you were sweating all afternoon. Two scores that would have put the number over the total were taken off the board because of penalties, and Bama was able to bleed the clock after that. The aforementioned loss on the final game was the over on the Colorado/ASU game, which was on track to hit at the half, but a scoreless 3rd quarter doomed any chances of a win.
Colorado (-11.5) vs Stanford
I sided with Stanford two weeks ago with the hope that the Cardinal could catch Oregon sleeping before its big match-up against Washington, but that didn't happen. What I discovered that day was that Stanford is just not very good. Colorado has been on a roller coaster this season through six weeks, but I think it's about time for some stabilization. The Buffs got a quality win on the road this past week, and they did so with solid offense and, for the first time all season, solid defense as well. Now, they are expected to get Travis Hunter back this week, which should not only shore up the defense but take the offense to the next level again. To that point, Stanford is allowing more than 300 yards per game in the air, so I'm expecting Shedeur Sanders to have a monster game.
Purdue (+19.5) vs Ohio State
Did the Buckeyes finally snap out of their collective malaise this past week, or are they just not as good as we're used to? I'm kind of leaning towards the latter on this one. To date, the Buckeyes have really only thumped one team, and we're five games into this season; it's just not what we're used to seeing. In two road games this season, OSU beat a bad Indiana team by 20 (while only scoring 23 points) and beat a decent Notre Dame team by three points (while only scoring 17). You see where I'm going here. The offense isn't explosive right now, and I think Purdue can score enough to stay within this number. The weather could be a factor here as well.
Oregon (+2.5) at Washington
We've got a great one on tap here. Both teams have done everything expected of them and more to this point, but one will walk away with a big leg up in the PAC 12 race. As you can see, I'm leaning toward Oregon here, and the reason is the defense. Both offenses have been great this season, and there's really nothing separating them, but Oregon has a clear edge on defense. The Ducks have allowed just 12 points in two conference games, and one of those games was against a very formidable offense in Colorado. Washington has played a tougher conference schedule, but it hasn't been that tough, and it doesn't explain why they've surrendered 56 points in two games. The Ducks will be walking into a tough environment, but they've got an experienced QB who has been through this before and should be able to put up enough points to cover this number.
Under (60.5) LSU vs Auburn
This is a scary one. LSU's defense has been awful lately, and this could get out of hand, but I don't think Auburn can take advantage of LSU's defensive issues the same way that Missouri and Ole Miss have in the past two weeks. The primary reason is that Auburn's offense is one-dimensional; all it can do is run the ball, and LSU should be able to figure out a way to slow them down without the threat of an air attack. As for the other side of the ball, there's no doubt that LSU has one of the best offenses in the nation, but this will be the best defense it's seen all year. This isn't going to be easy, but I think LSU will put a renewed focus on defense this week and maybe even slow the game down a bit.
Duke (-3.5) vs N.C. State
Two years ago, Brennan Armstrong was a first-round NFL prospect. Then, he lost his O-Coordinator this past year, and his stats went in the tank. This year, he was reunited with that coordinator, and it's resulted in Armstrong getting benched. His replacement, MJ Morris, filled in admirably this past week against Marshall, but we've seen this script before. The same thing happened this past year when Morris came to the rescue halfway through the season, only to fade in the following weeks. Duke has had plenty of time to prepare for Morris and will be ready for what he has to offer. The Blue Devils have also had two weeks to put the disappointing loss to Notre Dame behind them, and I'm sure they're itching to get back on the field. Duke is simply a more complete team and should win this game and cover the relatively small number.
Last Week: 3-2-0; Season 14-16-0
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Jeff's Picks
I was thwarted by three close losses last week, but I nailed the Alabama pick, and Arizona covered in the wildest and weirdest game I've ever seen live. Luckily, I had a record well above .500 before this week and am still in plus territory. Let's try and make up some ground.
Colorado (-11.5) vs. Stanford (Friday)
Stanford is on a four-game skid and is destined to be bottom-dwellers in the Pac-12 this season. Although the Buffaloes had their share of struggles against Arizona State, they're a much better team than Stanford, at least on paper. There's good news for the Buffaloes, as Travis Hunter is expected to play, boosting morale on both sides of the ball. The Cardinal are rotating quarterbacks, and neither player is providing much, as they only average 19.2 points per game. Colorado's defense could yield some points, but Stanford won't have an answer for Shedeur Sanders, arguably the most prolific passer in the country.
Auburn (+11.5) @ LSU
LSU's defense stinks. I can't put it any simpler. Lowly Missouri racked up over 500 yards of total offense against the Tigers. They surrendered most of those yards on the ground, and it just so happens that Hugh Freeze's squad is running the ball better than almost every team in the nation. Although they took a tough loss to Georgia, they ran for 219 yards against one of the nation's best rushing defenses. Can you see the potential carnage here? Auburn's offense is still developing, but this 11.5 spread is just foolish. That's why it's gone down from 12.5 earlier in the week. Also, LSU has difficulty stopping teams once they are in the end zone, which is more good news for Auburn.
OVER 60 Notre Dame vs. USC
USC heads into South Bend as the underdog, a first for Caleb Williams and the Trojans this season. The Irish got stung by Louisville, and they'll be ready to get back into the playoff picture with a decisive win against the Trojans. There's no question as to which team has the more potent offense. The Trojans are tops in the nation in total offense, but as good as they are in that department, their defense has been, well - atrocious. They were huge favorites against Arizona State and Arizona and nearly dropped both games. Here's the thing about the Trojans, though. They go to sleep against weak opponents, but they always seem to show up in critical contests. I do not doubt that they'll surrender many points to Sam Hartman. In fact, Notre Dame might even lead at the half, but it's only a matter of time before the Williams show begins. I don't want to make a bold prediction about the winner, but I am pretty confident that the final score will break 60.
Massachusetts (+43) @ Penn State
This should be fun. The first question we should ask ourselves is - is Umass as bad as Delaware? That's the only team that the Nittany Lions scored more than 43 points against, and definitely the only team that allowed Penn State to cover. Delaware actually went on to beat up other FCS opponents, but Penn State was just too big, too fast, and too strong for the Hens. UMass endured some hard luck with injuries on offense and some close calls against quality teams. Taisun Phommachanh is expected to be back under center, and I think that will help UMass put some points on the board despite Penn State's imposing defense. I wonder if Penn State can even generate 43 points against any FBS opponent. They play with one of the slowest paces in the country, and although they'll develop plenty of drives, there may not be enough time to drive a number this high, especially if UMass breaks a few plays.
UNC (-3.5) vs. Miami (FL)
After bungling their last game with one of the dumbest calls in college football history, it's difficult to predict what version of the Hurricanes we will see. Will they be fired up with a chip on their shoulder, or will they come to Chapel Hill flat and uninspired? I thought the team didn't have much faith in Mario Cristobal last season, and there were some reports that he had lost the locker room in 2022. I think the latter might be the case, and UNC may be too strong for them no matter how they show up. Although Drake Maye's numbers speak for themselves, the real hallmarks of the Heels are their ball protection and discipline. They don't turn the ball over often, and they've committed very few penalties. These two factors could be the difference maker, as the Hurricanes usually get a leg up due to mistakes made by opposing offenses.
Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 16-13-1
