This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was disappointing. Even though I went 8-6, we went 1-4 on SuperContest picks, and sadly my best bet streak came to an end with the Raiders.
This week, I especially like the Colts, Browns, Dolphins, Seahawks and Giants.
Patriots -7 at Falcons
I made this line 7.5, so I'm on the Patriots. It's actually a huge road line, and a month ago it might have been a pick 'em, but Bill Belichick's teams have outrun the oddsmakers for 20 years. Take the Pats.
Patriots 27 - 16
Lions +10.5 at Browns
The Browns are coming off a humiliating loss, but they go home, while the Lions travel for the second straight week after a tough overtime tie against the Steelers. I expect the Browns to smash here, especially if Nick Chubb is healthy. Lay the wood.
Browns 43 - 6
49ers -6.5 at Jaguars
The Niners looked great last week, but they have to travel for an early game six days later against a Jaguars squad that has played good defense the last two weeks. Take the points.
49ers 26 - 20
Colts +7 at Bills
I see these as roughly equal teams, so seven is too much. Take the points.
Colts 26 - 23
Dolphins -3 at Jets
Dolphins 27 - 19
Team +3.5 at Panthers
The Team is missing Montez